WEATHER53

When a better pattern comes it will be low pressures to our south and/or off the coast. Not Ohio Valley. Clippers must show up.. This will happen inside a 5 day window and models won’t see it in advance

It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny that. Not saying that you do. Observing and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples. When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter. Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial. 360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless .

Exactly my feelings so why do we do it?

Great. Thanks for update

How much more delayed are we now?

Amen. Delayed

I think we have a favorably positioned low pressure coming up from the south snd already organized, That works much better than phasing or transfers.

Atlanta area moderate intensity low pressures bring more good results to DC than any other set ups. So if that’s true and shows up , and doesn’t get delayed until a 1/15 projection example starts up, then we can be optimistic . These aren’t always snowers but the majority of what is impressive around here is from the Atlanta source region

Yes. Part of forecasting and model “guidance” is the timing. Cold and snow if predicted for 12/15, then 12/30, then 1/15 and such finally arrives 1/25 is a Busted outlook. Eventual outcome has some limited merit but timing is even more valuable. Nobody was excited about Dec anyway but by end of the month we need to see the pattern change to what the analogs showed or we are in trouble with what previous outcomes in Ninos have provided for us. .

Cover all bases Claim verification no matter outcome

What’s up in Mexico?

It would be nice to see favorable arrive sooner rather than always later. Initially back in late Nov looked like mid Dec then around 25th and now New aYears and perhaps mid Jan Yes ninos are usually back loaded but they are also usually consistent with forecasts prior to the back loaded onset. I will gladly eat crow but I can assure you this pushing back pattern needs to cease by end of month or it likely never will. Always remember the Vodka Cold fiasco and there have been several more since then.

We have a property on Reichs Ford about 1.5 miles out of town. Going there in couple days and getting South Mt Creamery gift certificates.

You feel strongly about you wishes but this ain’t some damn political board where you pull that kind of stuff to bolster your hopes. Sitting here right now I guarantee you the 10-14 day outlook will cover all the bases during the next 1-5 days .

Do not alter my posts in order to bolster your errant beliefs.

We should have a sub forum that restricts model posting to 5 days away

If the bottom panel is an actual already organized low pressure moving from around Atlanta to the coast then we have something. If it’s a phase job or transfer then many days forthcoming of vastly changing model crap

The gusts pushed all the trash cans and recycle over and then then sustained pushed 15 houses worth of debris to the bottom of the hilly street. There were like waves of soda bottles rolling and flipping downhill. 1.8” total and 47 mph peak gust and several hours of sustained at 25-27. That’ll git yer spilt refuse rollin’!

That’s silly because up to 360 hours is intensely presented and discussed here Models don’t predict weather but rather give examples of possible outcomes keeping in mind to cover as many bases as possible. Many of the alphabet indexes that have become popular in last 10 years I find unproven. The Enso and NAO and AO have stopped being as reliable as they were thru about 2012. Pacific was important but no where near as dominant as now. Since models really never did much beyond 3-5 days when times were Good and in this changing, unpredictable environment, they are in even more trouble.

Delayed scenario creeping in late November it was mid December for the change now Christmas to end of month and now some hints of mid Jan. No negative Nellie here but the reality for last 20 years is when cold onsets start getting pushed back they mostly continue to get pushed back.

March 1993 look to it

Snow cover really is necessary to have DC area highs of 20 and lows 0 to 5. As you said though it’s not necessary for highs 25-30 and low 20-25 and that’s spectacular snow temps

An overreaction occurs when around Hudson is +10 to 15 with failure to realize that air mass is still 20 to 25F

Midway Dec 15 looking to be about +1.5 so my +1 idea for Dec seems right so far. Looks like 1-2 storms per week for 6-8 weeks by end Dec so let’s get cold and snowy.

Really great pics. You are nw of Frederick? Our daughter is about 2 miles se of downtown Frederick and got just 0.5”. Looks like you got 3-4”? Her child’s school was delayed also