WEATHER53

Fresh surge of cold air this afternoon with few degree temp drop and dews falling 8/9/10 in two hours

Dew point plummet warning in effect From 29 at 10am at DCA to 21 at 3pm

Fresh cold air coming in now and I’ve dropped from 43.5 at 1:45 to 42.2 at 2:45. It will have been established here about 42 hours at onset. I like 36 best and don’t like 60+ . The drop in temp when dew point, temp and precip join together will rule the roost. I’m thinking we get a 50% meeting so if my backyard is 36/25 at 11am just at onset then I’m 31-32F at 85-90%rh

Where is our nice package right now?

So with the 6 hour wobbles and melancholy I am still at the same place I was Monday but now up to 85% probability of an area wide 3-6” from Camp Springs to Frederick I put out my checklist yesterday and will run that down item by item either late tonight or early Friday afternoon Moving from models to temps and dew points is a stable idea from now and forward . Looks like T minus 46 hours to liftoff!

50 miles east of OC would be perfect

Once it gets east of our longitude it will be snow again if it didn’t stay snow

So they will oscillate 20-30 miles rest of the way . I’m hoping by Friday 3pm ish that we can see what’s happening, For now just roll with the 6 hour . is that realistic time to be able to identify on Friday ?

So let’s get this thinking about models with some more responses. It’s being proposed to me that models are not a weather forecast. I disagree. They are a “tool” to help forecasters devise a forecast. I disagree. Their programming and programmers is Not that way and they are Not 4/5/6 different model types all strung together to assist in formulating a forecast each 6 hour period. They are in fact their own prediction of what the weather will be at, for example, 18z Saturday. It’s not a clue nor hint to be strung together with other models to develop a forecast: It Is A Forecast .

See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent You are un successfully trying to parse that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos get thrown around during deflections

In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations

Because they were created and are maintained to show examples rather than a statistically dominant outcome.

Waffling time as no big location placements to mess with By Friday noon I’ll be going over my checklist High 1025-1030 and within 150 miles of southern tip of Hudson/James Low not moving north of VA/NC border and staying at 1000 and not lower. Overnight lows Friday 27- 30 and dew points in the wee hours Saturday 20-23. onset time not optimal so need cloudy skies by 7-8am Saturday which should keep DCA around 35 at onset time but will get a 3-5 degree drop with steady precip Pittsburgh colder or as cold as Boston

15 on skyline dr and 35 and rain at DCA. Don’t think so

I can’t say it’s never happened but Camp Springs getting 1” and Rockville 11” is a 50-1 shot

The 1000ish works and east of OC by 50miles or so is great . Two big positive factors like that and low 20’s dews at start and it’s Exciting!

Great on high to west and +mb. Hope low not below 1000 until past OC

What time onset?

In all honesty, Canadian first one to show this and I liked it. Next I hope we get hours of great obs!

I think we are non panicked now but I’m older lately and back and forth gets me dizzy.

By noon tomorrow gotta be 70% probability thst predicted outcome holds up.

6” in 3 hours?

Trying to close off 1012 contour to a 1004 didn’t seem likely

Immediate DC area being between 3-8” for 48 consecutive hours is very reassuring.