WEATHER53

33.3 and dews soaring up . Ground is frozen and that might be a factor

You are quite correct Models exist to sustain themselves. It’s all we’ve had for 30 years and they are not looking into any different methods. The very nature of ensembles is to further the cover all bases method such that come funding time one of those 30 panels can be presented as confirmation to the unknowing Dept of Commerce people. Im a weather nut also and let’s face it the cartoons are fun to look at. They are just not predictive of weather but rather illustrative of it Not a troll either but rather experientially seasoned. Used to be 100+ of us clamoring about models back in 2005, over time as the blooms faded participants of regularity have shrunk to 20 all of whom vigorously defend their baby. I thank all of you who helped educate me about 850s and 500 and a Few other things but models and many of the alphabet soup of indexes have not proven to be general fund of knowledge enhancing Thank you for the courage of your comment, more of same is needed even with the chastizements we face

All bases covered

29.5 at 6pm coldest for time this season

33.6 for my high coldest daytime of the season

Looks like a busy 4/5 day period and models showing every possible outcome from ideal 997 off va beach to central lakes cutter.

Wish we could have a model thread limited to 4 days or closer. The 7+ day models have been more useless this year than ever and I did not think that was possible. Until the Entire platform of models is changed from giving examples to making predictions then we continue to get the same clap trap dozens and dozens of examples every 6 hours like we have last 20 years. I know of no “science” that is the same or less efficient than it was 20 years ago.

The night before the cancellation I experienced -2 temp at 1am and 30mph winds. The old scale wind chill was like -40. Friend up near Sugarloaf said he was -7 with sustained 35 and like -60 old scale. The winds really let up quick after 1am but never died complete and I hit -6 which was tied in 94.

Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks

5 to 10 degrees above average for the high and 5 to 10 degrees below average for lows. Pretty unusual

The 1985 event is my wind chill record. Walking around at 1am with -2F and 25-30 still sustained with gusts to 40 after stronger winds in the daylight. That was old scale and I think it was -50 in peak gusts . I know gusts don’t count but when they hit you they do,

So we just ended a period where several significant coastal storm snowmakers were model predicted which instead ended up in the Great Lakes. Been going on for 20 years with no significant improvement.

Great and thanks for running it

Great stuff ISO and we agree perfectly on Jan and Feb but I do have Dec as cold. Went for 11” at DCA which is a bit higher than you . Have you seen Dec Pic or Raleigh’s yet?

Things have changed over last 20-25 years. ENSO used to be the supreme determinator. It no longer is. Mid Atlantic for sure needs a favorable cold air delivery set up more than ever but the rest of the indexes and SSW and such is still largely unproven and the addition or deletion of one into a combo of other indexes throws the whole package off.

+1.5 for around DC is not torch and will be some cold just not majority

Ray we don’t put Keith’s out because the new service we are with has some paying vendors that use it. Ray think that some of those guys who we met way back then at beginning who were barely 20 are now 35-40 years old! I was just 47 or so when first got into weather boards

11” DCA. 12-13 suburbs Dec -2 Jan 0 to -1 Feb +5 cold 12/7-1/15 then winter over Where can find Deck Pic and Isotherm?

BWI 12 DCA 11 IAD 10 RIC 12 SBY 14

What is the track once inland

What is the 1-5 day path of this?

Still got all that red hair?

The last one survived strong shear so maybe it’s the year of shear survivors.

Went back to 1950 at DCA to find July that had both 6” of rain and temps +3.0 or higher. Long stretch there weren’t any until: 2019.

Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump like you is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster.