Carvers Gap

Again, I would encourage everyone to find the comments (I think it was TyphoonTip) regarding gradient, El Nino, and this past winter. Short story...the Pacific basin as a whole was warmer than normal during this past winter. The El Nino was weak. That created very little gradient, and the atmosphere had some La Nada/Nina characteristics. There needs to be a somewhat sharper ocean temp differential between the Nino area and the rest of the basin. Add in the active MJO(strong Nina characteristic), there is room for plenty of discussion regarding both this past and upcoming winter. Jax, am I reading correctly that the JAMSTEC is slightly south of neutral? Interesting early look there. Have you seen any other LR thoughts on ENSO for next winter? Jax already knows this, but for the new folks....ENSO can be really fickle at this range regarding next winter. We might get some hints with its summer state, but ENSO models aren't super accurate until November when looking at winter. Still, it is nice to look at LR modeling and is the only way to get better. Thanks for the share, Jax. If this next winter is similar to this past one...going to be plenty of surprises(not sure good or bad)!

Thanks for the share. Great information. Please keep us updated.

Looks like the rainy pattern continues....If this winter has shown us anything, we need to question things if a "dry spell" shows up in modeling. Not sure that we get the massive amounts from last weekend, but still appears to be a steady dose for the next couple of weeks at least. Honestly, when I start to squirm would be if we somehow manage to tap a tropical feed from a tropical storm or hurricane early in the tropical season. Hopefully, we get enough time(before early summer) to allow the water management agencies to get our reservoirs down enough to withstand another healthy round of rain. Very early in the season to have this much water. I feel certain some folks are working long but productive hours to keep tabs on this. They have done a really good, commendable job so far. Just need to buy some time so that we can maintain a bit of wiggle room.

MRX with a great write-up about the event as it relates to E TN.... https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite

Byron Begley of Little River Outfitters writes a fantastic fly fishing blog for GSMNP. He also does a great job in talking about river flows. Here is a link to his discussion about where river levels are currently compared to historical averages in the Smokies. He also notes which roads(and why) certain roads are closed in the Park. This article was written this morning. Also, check out that 1994 flood stage for Little River in 1994. I remember that one. Just incredible. They had to rebuild the road from the Y to Elkmont. Reinforcement boulders the size of vans were washed away that year. https://littleriveroutfitters.com/pages/fishing/report.htm

Thanks, Holston. Radarscope showing heavy rain southwest of Knoxville.

Anyone have a nice, hi-def rainfall map(won't include future amounts over E TN) for the past seven days to the present for the forum area?

I watch the levels for Little River and the Doe during spring so as to know when to safely fish(wade) those early season hatches at either Roan Mountain State Park or in GSMNP. Two things...it will take some time for that to settle back to median flow with no rain at all(likely a couple of weeks). The other, it won't take much rainfall at all in order to bump that right back up to flood stage. One time I fished the Doe and the graph looked good when I left the house, but there had been some showers on the mountain a few hours earlier. I noticed an uptick similar to the Feb 11th one where it spiked up and looked like it was coming back down....just that little downward hitch on that blue line above as it soars upward. Well, I though it was coming back down and had peaked. So, we hopped in the car and headed for the state park. Nope. It was a torrent. We tried throwing some streamers, but it was just too much. Got home and the graph was rolling. For that entire spring, the river was very susceptible to any rain. Great share, Tellico. Great illustration of a river "stepping up" over time.

I am all for those totals being backed-down. 3-4" is about the max that we can handle here before it gets ugly. My area that I jog is now under water and seems like the "base state" for that current area - meaning it is out of its banks and not receding quickly. We can probably handle 3-4" over the period of a week, though there will likely be urban flooding etc. The bigger numbers in SE TN and west of that are trouble for the TN River system. I was commenting earlier that the absolute thing that we don't want in the LR is a big snowstorm in the mountains followed by another active STJ firehose that melts it all at once. Folks in the foothills communities know that is bad business.

Man, forgot about that. Everything here is really high. The mountain streams and rivers were out of their banks on Friday afternoon. The were barely back in by Saturday AM.

That is a nasty looking line. Really pulling up the warm air in front of it on SSW/SW winds....

Good call, @jaxjagman! You all keep us updated. We are nearing record highs in the eastern valley. TRI is just four degrees from it and TYS is just one degree from it. Should be plenty of warmth for those storms to work with over here.

@Stovepipe, been waiting on the end-of-the-year season wrap up. No worries as I know that you mentioned that you have been working like crazy. Just wondering how your garden did this year? Another great year for sweet potatoes here. Bell peppers did really well as did okra. My watermelons did ok, but I think they are heavy feeders...and I need to feed them more. Carrot crop was good. Tomato crop was good. I got less cucumbers this year, but I think that was "gardener error" on my part. First seed catalogs for 2019 have begun to arrive.

I posted this recently in the winter thread while discussing how it seemed suspicious that the GEFS and EPS were placing long term BN heights over AK. To answer your question, if you look at the El Nino graphic, notice how the Pacific jet is working underneath the AN heights in AK and the West Coast. The cold drives down that ridge and intersects w the jet underneath the ridge, hopefully somewhere in our area. You can also see something similar during a Nina, but the confluence(joining and area of phasing) of the two jets is over the northern Rockies. The Rockies during last year's La Nina set snow records in Billings and surround areas. We like El Ninos because the confluence is over the East Coast. What we want is split flow where storms are undercutting a ridge over western North America vs a ridge over the Pacific centered just east of Hawaii. To add to that w like a -NAO over Greenland(high pressure) that causes the jet to buckle right long the EC. It slows the storms that form and forces them to turn north...also allows for easier confluence because it basically stops up the jet. Great thread idea, eastknox.

If you get a big PNA ridge out west or EPO ridge, sometimes energy will sneak under the ridge. So, basically you still get cold being sent south by the western ridge and precip cutting under that western ridge. If we are fortunate, the system(preferably entering at the latitude near Los Angeles) will slide under the ridge and connect w cold air being sent south. We hope that confluence will happen near the East Coast. That is what some might call a big dog pattern.

Realized the same thing this afternoon. Same deal here. Any updates on timing for the forum area would be great.

Nah, man. I think you all will be right. If that cold is anywhere close to being what is on the EPS, I have a difficult time seeing the back half of December getting us back to normal. Same deal with this month. As for severe, I just want some decent wind to knock these last leaves down. Today has been good for that. Right now, I still have like two more weeks of leaves thanks to this tree in my front yard! It always drops them last. Also in terms of severe(pretty much a novice on my part), but I thought today how strong this front was that brought in the cold. Seems like we are in a pattern with strong fronts and those can definitely favor storms. We are also in the time frame where I think if we see severe near the mountains that snow follows within two weeks...or something like that.

Looks like the mini blob in the north PAC has weakened some. Equatorial areas look pretty steady.

I hear you. I have learned a ton from this thread. It is a unique thread to the entire greater forum I believe. Our severe thread may be an original as well. Just dishing out a compliment to Jax and the gang for expanding our knowledge.

This continues, year after year, to be an underrated thread. Some really great info in here. Strong work!

I will be surprised if this gets to moderate before late winter....someone mentioned that in one of the threads, maybe Jeff. So, you think it looks warmish due to December? Normal for January and February will get the job done.

Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold. IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look. I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm. I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter. That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.

Awesome. Thanks! I think the JAMSTEC has flipped warm due to the Nino being potentially stronger. Not a slam dunk, snow winter. However, if it is slow to get to the moderate level(assuming it gets there) then we could still see a weaker Nino reflected for seasonal wx.

Jax, can you see its corresponding temps for DJF for NA?...I noticed that at least one recent run had departed from its cold winter forecast and was very warm. If we have a moderate Nino, all bets are off here regarding winter IMO. However, I wonder if we might still feel some effects of a weak El Nino as it will just be getting started...before it goes moderate.

Been an excellent tomato, carrot, potato, bean, pepper, squash, and okra year. Probably my best tomato year in a long, long time - the copper spray as a fungicide has been more than money. Will try to post some pics, but am out of memory space for my account. During the last couple of years, I was tucking-in large portions of the garden early due to dry conditions. I still have a good part of the garden still "in play" right now.