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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I think you all need to dig back through the winter spec thread. Lots of great thoughts there by many posters! I think most of us were super clear about the difficulties of moderate Nina winters. I don't always get a seasonal forecast correct, but this has worked out pretty well so far regarding temp and pattern stuff. Precip idea is too dry. Those ideas were posted during June. Here are some excerpts. Can't say you weren't warned well in advance... "Best chances for snow will occur late November into early January. Expecting a big thaw in January this year, BUT I do think we see bouts of serious cold this winter despite my AN temps forecast. I was really bullish at the end of last winter regarding the upcoming winter being a dud. And it may well be. Strong to moderate La Nina's are generally a non-starter IMBY. The good news, as I have stated before, is that we really need the Pacific to cool down some, and it has been some time since we have seen a strong La Nina. Winters that have followed strong La Ninas can be pretty good in MBY, so I will suffer through a strong Nina event if need be this winter..." "....As for snow, everybody wants to know how much we are going to get. The answer is that it is absolutely impossible to know. I think our best chances will be early. After that, one would think that January and February will provide some very long timeframes between chances. That said, it just "seems" the weather pattern from the past two years right is switching up. We are out of shoulder season which fooled me into thinking the pattern had broken early last winter(the pattern being a little pocket trough forming ad nauseam over the Mountain West in the front range). With some big heat already being felt in the Mountain West and a transient ridge reforming every few weeks there...makes me think we are seeing a transition. So, I am less negative about the upcoming winter. My gut says it will be better than I describe above, but my brain says to beware of moderate to strong Nina patterns - they are generally hostile to winter in the SE. So, I will go with BN snowfall, but maybe closer to normal than many will forecast, but better than last winter. Short and sweet with no graphics."
  2. Carvers Gap
    Nah. Definitely is much different than last year. We have had a lot more snow in our area. We have a -NAO. Pacific like last year is not cooperating. Atlantic is nearly perfect. I am not a fan of the SSW stuff. I feel like that works for us sometimes. This year, those SSWs fouled what was a good pattern. Honestly, this year I didn't expect much. Think my winter forecast is in the winter spec thread. I normally don't bang my own drum, but was pretty clear that we would have long pauses between events. Moderate Ninas are a pain. Now, do I think we eventually get some more cold? Sure. I will try to link that forecast here. Give me just a sec....
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS at 500 past d10 is a beauty.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Saddle up. Just remember these SE ridges that connect briefly to high latitude blocking do a number on the SPV. Then modeling goes to crap, and we have to wait a few days for the dust to clear. I “suspect” that recent trends towards more favorable outlooks past D10 on the EPS and GEPS are likely tied to this. Would also likely mean the NAO is going nowhere. Commerce model mayhem.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS and 12z Euro control are hinting at a potential trough amplification into the mid-section of the county. We need to pull for those solutions.
  6. Carvers Gap
    For NE TN folks, that little shot of precip over night is showing up as accumulating snow for portions of NE TN on the Euro and ice on the GFS. The 12z RGEM also has wintry precip for portions of NE TN. Something to keep an eye on....could make the morning commute interesting.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z ICON does lend some support to the GFS with the big 1044 high over the top late in its run. IF that high is real, that is going to be factor and a nice improvement.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS Para is not overly warm. Will be interesting if models trend somewhat colder at 12z - jury seems split on that one.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Of note the 12z GFS is significantly colder than other modeling after 180. Let's see if the Euro supports it at all. The GFS has a tendency to spot cold shots first, but the CMC is not supporting it which makes me wonder if it's a red herring.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC has the same piece of energy but gets the hp out in front to the storm and creates a CAD situation east of the Apps. Definitely something to be watched with that much higher pressured to our north.
  11. Carvers Gap
    1044 high sitting over a potential slider.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS has a window for a storm around 180. Missed the phase by just a hair, but that setup could work.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think a lot of this has to do with the MJO being predicted to go phases 5/6 which are very warm vs the -NAO which is quite negative. One thing I notice is the variations in the Pacific trough. As Webber noted, there is super fine line between cold and total torch and nothing in between after d10. If the ridge, like the EPS, sets up closer to the Pac Coast....the trough will extend eastward in a 95-96 fashion. The GEFS is nearly a completely different solution with that eastern Pac ridge. Again, I tend to support the EPS solution. I feel the Euro stuff has superior physics when it comes to juggling multiple features: SSW, conflicting Pac/Atl features, changing wavelengths, etc. It is not infallible, and I definitely don't hug that model. However, I think the idea that cold pushes eastward is legit. As a side note, take some time and go back through the winter run-up thread. I think our ideas from that thread(dating back to summer and earlier) have been really good and have encompassed a lot of what has occurred this winter.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Folks in Chattanooga are looking at those maps and saying, “This has been going on since 1886?!” j/k. Great maps as always.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Skepticism is welcome. Frustration directed towards posters who have no control over the weather is something I try to avoid.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Friend just shared this with me, and I 100% concur.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Dangit. LOL. It is gonna be money.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Great.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS has moved towards the good look that the 12z GEPS has. GEPS is a true 95-96 look. EPS is not far off that mark. GEPS start date is around d11 and EPS is around d14. Both basically open up a path from AK(super cold temps) into the lower 48. Realistic look and I would lean in that direction if forced to pick. Guessing the GEPS has this as the EPS is probably holding back just a hair in the West which is a known bias. Good trends from those two ensembles.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS has been advertising an EPO ridge(might be a hair too displayed westward), but that feature greatly changes its LR look. The 0z GEFS does not have this feature. The 0z EPS kind of splits the difference between the two. The EPS is not a warm run. Though modeling kind of has one foot in and one foot out, I do think we move to what models had a week or so ago....strongest cold anomalies in the Mountain West and front range of the Canadian Rockies....and then extended occasionally to the western spin of the Apps (95-96 lite). We are really just a weak PNA or EPO away from a very cold pattern. TBD if that actually happens, but the EPS and GEPS are party of the way there. I do surmise that we likely see a ridge roll through from time to time with that look. Again, think there are some inconsistent looks with the MJO paired with a -NAO. Throw in the SSW and some shortening wavelengths, and modeling right now past 7 days can get a bit dicey. As long as we have the -NAO and/or EPO(potential), there is a chance for confluence and storminess here. As for spring, I know some analog packages call for a warmth. Wouldn't surprise me to see it get very cold about the time we are ready for it to warm-up. If the Nina hangs on, one would expect Cosgrove's flip to warmth at some point per his newsletter.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LOL. What a day.....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, TN fans haven't been looking at squat regarding modeling today! LOL. Came over to post what John just did....I wasn't overly displeased with either the Euro OP, the EPS, nor the Weeklies. The Weeklies controls run was pretty awesome in terms of 500. Haven't looked at a map all day. You think a SER is bad...TN football says hold my beer.
  23. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy is how very little thunder we have had in NE TN this winter - not even sure I can name a time where we have had even weak thunderstorms. I think last January we had a really bad severe event on my end of town - knocked down a bunch of trees. But yeah, with a ridge temporarily bellying into the center of the country...could happen. I haven't even been able to use my "thunder in the mountain...snow within ten days" rule this winter - yet.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting side note and a testament to the lack of cold source this winter. Duck season has been tough this year from what I have read. One reason that was suggested is that cold weather(meaning frozen waterways further north) has not forced them as far south as normal.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Saw a similar head fake when we saw truly cold air enter NA during November. Lots of solutions between d10-15 showed remarkable cold going into the East...only to have it dump West. November patterns have a real tendency to show back-up during winter(though the previous winters' Novembers did not comply with that rule). Looks very much like that will occur again. Still think the MJO look on OLR maps looks good for the LR re: our area. You can see on the 18z GFS the easy late in the run(and not taken as verbatim but just an example) at which the trough repositions itself at 500 across the eastern US when that trough in the West retrogrades just enough off the West Coast(talked about that earlier today).
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