Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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It is an odd, double barrel low set-up. Honestly, it has been a while since we have seen that set-up east of the mountains. The lee side low is a good set-up in and of itself. The energy transfer to the coast could cause the snow to go poof over E TN or it could accentuate it depending on where it fires. I will tag @John1122who will know the answer to the question most likely. I would have to dig back through the threads. I usually just make a mental note that double barrel lows are infamous and notorious regarding modeling being able to accurate depict them. Seems like I remember one where the lee side low was weak and we didn't get anything, and maybe one where the lee side low trended into an inland runner.
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This is a super similar set-up to how middle and west TN have scored...just displace the primary east of the Apps(instead of the eastern valley and secondary to the coast(instead of western NC). The really headache is accounting for two mountain ranges(the Plateau and Apps) being under the western precip shield instead of just the Plateau. The 12z set-up could be a combo of orographic lift and downsloping, one replacing the other depending on location. Fun times. LOL.
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Looks like the lee side is a realistic solution. We need it to fire to our SE vs directly to our east.
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The 12z ICON has the same set-up but weaker. So, that is the ICON, CMC, and GFS at 12z which have a similar setup and the RGEM looks like it would have gotten there as well. Time to watch trends at this point.
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The 12z CMC now has a similar set-up with an RGEM-esque look. It has less over E TN, as the inland feature fires a bit late. That said, pretty much the same synoptic set-up as at the GFS which makes both solutions a bit more believable. We do have to take into account the GFS amping things a bit too much.
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If you live in E TN, you want the flow to back as the front passes. You combine that backing with orographic lift due to the Plateau and you get a deformation band o sorts in E TN. Again, I am still wary of this set-up as modeling juggling an enormous amount of plates for this set-up. This is a timing set-up which is a royal pain to follow. We need the northern system to catch the southern stream energy which is kind of stalled. We have to hit the jackpot in terms of confluence. If the southern stream is too fast, we get a weak frontal passage with light snow. To slow, and it could legit cut(though highly unlikely)
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Super complex setup which makes me wary. Basically, the GFS pops a lee side low(western NC) as the front passes. That happens often(just faint). The front running energy along the coast interacts, and the lee side energy transfers to the coast. This is like a Miller B, but east of the mountains. Those setups do occasionally happen - ceiling is high and bust potential is massive.
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Pretty consistent look w/ a slightly eastward jog.
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The GFS was flirting (and has been) with an inland runner. It could still settle on the coastal which is likely just a weak clipper, but if it goes to the inland runner solution...that would be optimal. The RGEM is likely amped at this range, but that look would be a forum-wide snow if extrapolated...and totals bias corrected to zero for Kingsport and Chattanooga of course.
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The 12z GFS is a great run. 9" for JC and half a foot for Sullivan. The 12z RGEM(at range and noted) looks like it was ready to rock with a vigorous system. Of note, double barrel systems are tricky as @#$ to forecast.
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Take a look at the 500vort maps for the UKMET. It goes negative tilt. We either need the northern stream to have some separation with the front runner in the STJ or we need the front runner to slow and get caught. UKMET is scenario two. GFS is scenarios one.
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That is it I think. I think the UKMET has that setup. Basically the front pops a lee side low while there is an slp along the Atlantic Coast.
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It may be that we see a double barrel low with one in the coast and one on the lee of the Apps...reference LC.
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Anyone have the 0z UKMET sequence? Cosgrove said the system was pretty significant on it, ie big storm. In the car line, so can’t look...If so, that makes two models that have it this AM.
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I know I sound like a broken record but, it is not uncommon for systems to gain strength(on modeling) during February. Also, I still don't believe modeling has a good handle on this system Sunday, even at this range. I don't think it will be anything huge, but it is very possible snow will be in the air along(just north and south) of the northern border of TN. And broken record alert again...low probability(increasing) along with a high upside.
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The ensemble has the overrunning solution.
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It is the exact opposite of a low in the Lakes in that respect, right? We get a good northern stream piece of energy...unless there is a phase, we just want the clipper or northern stream event. The 18z GFS has all kinds of stuff going on including a clean pass of an inland/Apps runner for what was originally a cutter! LOL. See hour 228. This could get kind of crazy. There is so much energy in the pattern after the 10th.
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The Euro provides two clippers. A word of caution, clippers trend north over time in many cases. What is fun about clippers is that they are often under modeled during Feb.
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Yeah, I should clarify....clippers are normally north of I-40.
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Yep. Pacific driven pattern sometimes make confluence very tough IF the system doesn't originate in the northern stream. We need a clipper fest and not "thread the needle" phasing where there is nothing to prevent the system from sliding OTS. If we could simply get a legit cutter, that would help our chances.
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For now, I am waiting on the warm-up that folks have been promising since late December. LOL and just kidding around. I went out to water the onions in our hoop house and cold frame, and the ground is frozen on the outside of each. Inside it is toasty warm. Season extenders are awesome if you garden. The MJO....Has any model been right this winter in regards to the MJO? It is in phase 2 now, and is pretty much stalled for a 8-12 days in 2 and 3. I wonder out loud if maybe we see a false warm-up yet again with just a ridge rolling in from the west after the 20th? I actually think we see warming after the 20th for an undetermined amount of time. Looks to me like a "cold, reload/warm east, and cold returns pattern" after the 20th. This colder pattern has certainly been slow to burn out. Maybe it will warm-up by spring.
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The GFS at 12z is a swing and a miss. Again, modeling is having trouble with timing/location/amount/intensity of energy over the SE US and the incoming wave from the northern front. The 12z ICON(usually conservative) has a blizzard for the big cities in the NE. This is a highly complex set-up where timing matters. This is one which could sneak-up on folks. For now, I have set the usual 1" of snow bar. Anything higher is a bonus. This is a low probability event with a big ceiling if that makes any sense at all.
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Complex...and I mean complex set-up. I don't trust any model at this point. With that much energy running around(and strong), one would think a winter storm in the east is plausible this weekend. Hopefully, modeling begins to reach some kind of loose consensus today.
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18z GFS sort-of got back the clipper which feeds into the slp. NE areas of the forum benefit.
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Spring is almost here for sure, or at least spring followed by a little more cold during early March...then it could get wild. It is teed-up for you severe folks. Just keep the hail from shredding my roof and cars. $30K is enough for one decade!
