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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Happy Monday! Admittedly, this is a cherry picked map from the GEFS Ext Jan8th. I still do have a wary eye that the cold could dump into the West and hold there before modifying and heading eastward. Why? That is what SSW events(whether official or not) tend to produce. That said, if modeling is correct(and it is moving forward w/ each run)...a secondary storm track would develop along the coast(maybe the primary track for a brief window). You can actually see those storm tracks on this control run. The big storm which produced the E TN snows was early Feb. The real score would be a displaced TPV which heads eastward due to the MJO signal, and hits an active STJ.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Kind of fun to watch modeling begin to sniff out this pattern. The 18z GEFS (and its much talked about warm temps and where is the cold in the LR everyone has been talking about?), well take a look at the temp anomalies for NA after 348. The warmth vanishes - just gone. That is a long way out there and still may not yet verify, but the model now reflects what the CMC is putting out. That look is a setup for a major cold outbreak from the Rockies to the Apps.
  3. Carvers Gap
    LC had a great write-up yesterday evening - very detailed w/ supporting ideas. A little Cosgrove from last night: The warm air may be around in the Eastern Seaboard communities until the start of the last week of January. If I am reading the "tea leaves" (numerical models) correctly, a Colorado/Trinidad type storm will establish an Arctic air mass across all but the West Coast states. Aside from temporary alterations, we would then be facing a cold-dominated period that will last until the end of February. After that sequence, a warmer March will be for real in all but southern Canada and parts of the Intermountain Region.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, my much above normal temp forecast(for Feb) from June...in major jeopardy right now. Exact opposite is on the table.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The end of the 12z EPS run.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Fountain nails it. BIG changes to the storm next weekend. Temps are still no bueno, but that track was not Midwest cutter on the CMC. IF we can get that storm below us, who knows. We are exiting the timeframe where storms are lost on modeling.
  7. Carvers Gap
    It is not warm right now in NE TN. It definitely felt like January this evening.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has now joined the EPS and GEPS in the LR pattern change - and it is a pretty massive change at 500mb as other models have shown above. It was the last model to budge. Next item to address will be source regions for cold. The pattern would support discharge of cold air from high latitudes. It would be nice to get Siberian grade cold as an upgrade option - one click shopping from Amazon(we want the entire bundle subscription of widespread snow, cold, and a 2 year warrantee).
  9. Carvers Gap
    And it pops a weak inland runner in the Piedmont. That will work. Is it right? No idea.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Good example of a lee side low...
  11. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS
  12. Carvers Gap
    NE TN and W NC folks might want to take a look at the 18z GFS. That is a 98 redux right there.
  13. Carvers Gap
    If that verifies, I think we see multiple things to track. So, I am just going to enjoy the next couple of weeks, watch for maybe an oddball storm in the meantime(maybe some high elevation snow next weekend...light). What will be interesting to see is if the storm next weekend just ushers in the new pattern, and we don't look back. The GFS has hinted at this on more than one occasion. The Euro control ends w/ a massive western ridge w/ the Arctic being unleashed into Canada. This would be a triumph of LR modeling as it has had this for a bit. If the SSW comes to fruition, it could wreck all of that or it could dump into the East due to the MJO.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At the furthest extent of its reach, the 12z EPS looks pretty good at 500. Temps are still AN, but should switch quite quickly as Canada would refill with cold quite quickly. PNA/EPO ridge(which has yet to verify this winter), AN heights over the Davis Straits, and a mean trough over the East. This reminds me of two years ago when winter was meh...and Memphis got hammered in about this same timeframe. With strat warming underway, it should be noted that these patterns can switch on a dime...so proceed w/ caution. Let's reel it in.... addendum: I should be noted the transition to this look begins around Jan 15th w/ the pseudo winter storm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like Jan 22-23rd is a fairly common way point on modeling. When it is on Weeklies products, I kind of have to guess at the pattern change as it sits in a 5d mean window. So, it is nice to see it showing up on ensembles. So far, it is holding in time. Interestingly, the -NAO is trying to show back up in modeling.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The potential pattern change is still moving forward in time. As with the last cold shot, there was a ton of can kicking....but the pattern is now on global ensembles instead of just being limited to runs of the Weeklies. That is a very cold look.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Several of my seasonal forecast ideas are going to work this year - LOL, but February not so much it looks like. Seasonal ideas are a bit of a crapshoot(requires a certain amount of luck), but I went w/ the past two years of Nina climatology to repeat. The good thing if this winter repeats, we should see at least one more cold shot into the forum areas(I am think a couple of periods of cold). I had February as much above normal......that is on extremely shaky ground. In fact, I might get the exact opposite. Oddly, November and December started the exact same way - warm start w/ cold eroding those warm starts as the month progressed.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The greenest yard in my neighborhood(likely over seeded w/ rye) is brown. It is not uncommon for me to have to get an early mow by late Feb here, though. Most of that is day length driven - just gets more sun. I have a small hoop house which I put up in mid-February in order to grow cool season crops in my garden. Just looking at LR temps, modeling looks like it has for days. Looks like the return to winter could possibly begin around the 20th. Unfortunately,(very unfortunately) spring does not look warm at this point. Might be a very slow climb if Nino takes hold early. I actually like quick flips to spring. Last year, my growing season was pretty short due to temps not warming-up quickly here. I was looking at some garden photos on my phone....the last couple of years my garden has been put in the ground 2-3 weeks later than normal.
  19. Carvers Gap
    At 186, the Euro has a stalled 997 low on the south end of Hatteras. Heading to bed. Might be classified as a slight synoptic improvement as the storm is closer to the coast(the secondary).
  20. Carvers Gap
    This run is just more disorganized which almost tells me the Euro is stuck in purgatory - not knowing to drive a cutter or drive SE to the coast.
  21. Carvers Gap
    At 144, more energy has been kept south of the primary - middle of Arkansas instead of St Louis.
  22. Carvers Gap
    At 117, this looks more like a bowling ball. It may still cut, but that looks more like it might not.
  23. Carvers Gap
    As @John1122 noted, I also have a 30% chance of snow in the morning. Yeah, I am watching the Euro roll - just a glutton for punishment. At 108, slp is in a similar location over the Four Corners. And yes, when lows go into the Four Corners, the Euro can have problems. So far, it looks more realistic than 12z in terms of the shape of the storm.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC goes cutter...but...it transfers waaaay south. Then, a slp crawls(and I mean crawls) up the SE coast. It eventually comes ashore and jogs nw inland. That would be a significant upslope event for the mountains, and snow would be flying in the valleys. Stall a storm out just northwest of Hatteras, and you have my full attention.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And the GFS w/ yet another solution as John notes. Realistic set-up.
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