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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    1t 156, yet another wave of precip attacks the cold boundary and results in a fairly extensive ice shield over much of middle and west TN.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That is oh so close to a multi-day over-running event. And that isn't 7-8 days out. This begins around hour 105. Still TONS of uncertainty.
  3. Carvers Gap
    By hour 111, most of middle and west TN are dealing w/ light wintry mix/snow/ice. It is also spread eastward, but mainly above I-40
  4. Carvers Gap
    First wave of wintry precip on the 18z GFS is at hour 105 and incoming for Memphis, northern MS, and eastern Arkansas.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has a similar slider to the 12z GFS north of I-40. Definite suppression trend across all deterministic modeling for the first 2-3 days of Feb.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z GFS is quicker w/ precip and gets out ahead of HP whereas the 12z CMC has precip sliding along slightly behind HP. That high placement and precip timing makes for very different solutions. For now, we take the GFS. There is some concern on my part that cold air might get trapped in the eastern valley (especially north of I-40) if this rolls in at night. The CMC looks to have a little bit of feedback over Louisiana in holding back energy, but that isn't totally different than the 0z Euro.,
  8. Carvers Gap
    Pick your poison, the 12z suite has a buffet of options so far. Big ol' slop fest on modeling. Interesting to see modeling seeing a stronger and/or more southerly HP. That is an interesting trend. Placement of all features is still up for grabs.
  9. Carvers Gap
    These are not bad trends at all..........more later. But man, models are all over the place. LOL. Trend is pretty extensive suppression...to the point some of that energy just sits there and comes back as a WAA event on the CMC.
  10. Carvers Gap
    At 168, the CMC has ice in northern Louisiana.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is also VERY suppressed. Modeling is "seeing" a stronger HP over the top which means colder I would guess...though I have not looked at the surface. CMC might be a mid-South special.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS might put snow into coastal South Carolina...that suppressed. And honestly, that is where we want that model right now. That gives it room to come back north. I wouldn't be shocked that later runs move to a Miller A. That was close....if real.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has a light snow event....and then is very suppressed...very.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Nice moderate to heavy sleet band in wester Sullivan Co just a few minutes ago. If modeling is correct, those bands continue for a few more hours.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I suspect we have at least one NWS poster on our forum. They are an excellent poster. And that is a great catch. I think that shows that what we talk about here isn't sunshine pumping or the like. That window is a legit window for winter weather. Where is the question? Nina winters often favor middle and west TN, and this potential overrunning event signal favors those areas, though I wouldn't rule out E TN by any means . Those crappy decades of winters Nashville had prior to this recent good run....chocked full of Nino winters from the early 90s onward. During the last decade, we have seen more Nina winters. Another good trend during the past couple of winters is the return of the -NAO. That helps. We have seen what January looks like w/out Atlantic blocking. Many Kocin storms have -NAOs as part of the equation. All of that said, the trend overnight was to bring that frozen boundary from the Ohio River into Central KY. In some cases, the heaviest bands were brought completely to the KY/TN border, including SW Virginia. The Euro ended w/ an extensive Miller B hybrid. So great find and great disco by Nashville. I agree with all of that. We really want to see an aggressive trend southward so that the boundary gets south of us...so that the inevitable northward jog will still leave us w/ frozen precip. I am 50/50 on whether modeling is just sensing the cold, and pushes that boundary further southward. The GFS is less aggressive(though 6z trended significantly colder) w/ the boundary pressing southward. The 0z CMC would bring most of TN into the mix north of I-40 in terms of ice. The 0z Euro is in between the two, and is a nice compromise for now. There is still plenty of time for this to move around(roughly 48 hours before this begins to lock in). The Euro late in the run has me intrigued as it has had a real tendency to trend west with storms(think inland runner which trended to Illinois). I think we want any storm on that model on the coast or just off the coast...at this range.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Definitely our heaviest sleet shower so far. Very wintry day.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Light snow, sleet, and rain falling in west Sullivan Co.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks like some light snow showers or flurries will be moving along the TN/KY border this morning. One line is coming off the Plateau and one line is moving onto the eastern rim.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The GFS is nearly 30-40 degrees colder than its 0z run for the 4th. That tells me there is much still to work out. The trend on across deterministic runs overnight is to move the boundary southward.
  20. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC is icy for middle and west TN. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS both turn into decent snow storms for KY. The Euro plaster the MA. Main message is ice, and lots of it. There is still a ton of flux w/ the boundary. The 6z GFS was substantially colder than its 0z run, evidently "finding" the cold it air it lost at 18z.
  21. Carvers Gap
    There is much to enjoy about following the weather. I just think getting bummed over one run is getting sucked into the vacuum that other forums have dealt with. I used to be swayed like that. However, this is a great hobby, and I have learned to enjoy hunting storms. Maybe it is because I used to fish a lot or I am getting older and know my days are numbered(no, I am not dying...LOL)....some days are great and some aren't. But getting out there on the water is always good. Opening up new model suites is generally enjoyable for me. It is akin to hunting for Easter eggs in a video game for me. Plus, I just enjoy the maps and graphs. Enough analogies. For me the best thing about this winter was standing w/ the local HS band as they were waiting to go into Lucas Oil Field for their national semis run. It was unexpected, and awesome. I never saw it coming on modeling. Sometimes the unexpected things are the best. ...just reminding everyone to enjoy a great hobby and the truly great fellowship of this forum. In about 4-6 weeks, many will head back into hibernation until next season.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Strongest winds of the day here @Math/Met, it is howling.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Ya’ll, it is one run of a deterministic. It may trend towards worse...but swaying this way and that with each deterministic run is what is miserable. Whew. The overnight runs were decent, and it looked like a funeral in here when I woke up. LOL. It is not the end of the world if it doesn’t snow. Lots of great things in life. Keep your eyes on the horizon and not looking at each wave. One thing I have learned over the years is to enjoy the tracking - good or bad. Let’s not forget that we had a decent amount of cold during November/December. Count your blessings. One storm and most of us reach normal - that is all it takes.
  24. Carvers Gap
    But cold on that run is lacking for sure.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I have to be honest, I will take the suppressed look right now.
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