Carvers Gap
-
Posts
15,659 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
Nah. 12z update.... The CMC is a pretty bad ice event for middle and west. The GFS is a nice 2-4" slider for much of the state north of I-40. With so little agreement....I think we are all just chilling and waiting for some agreement. Here are a few snapshots. The models are consistent within their own runs but now with each other.... -
As a follow-up to the Euro Weeklies last night, I am beginning to think that is an outlier run as generally all global ensembles have a decent warm-up mid-month. Now, it is likely going to get cold again after that, but a warm-up now appears likely. The real question will be the permanence of that eastern ridge. Does it roll through or set up shop? The Weeklies say it is temporary, but IDK. We will see what the MJO says. One positive note, the STJ appears to remain quite active. That alone could give us some thread-the-needle chances(even during a warm pattern) just due to the frequency of precip and shortening wavelengths. Very Nino looking pattern IMHO.
-
Morning discussion out of Memphis: A split upper level pattern will prevail during the early to middle part of next week. The southern branch of the upper jet will extend from the southern plains through the Midsouth and Ohio River Valley. Concurrently, the northern branch of the upper jet will extend from the southwest Canada to the Ohio River Valley, where it will consolidate with the southern branch. At the surface, a 1036mb Arctic high will drop into the Central Plains Monday night, with the leading edge of this Arctic air enters the Midsouth. Precipitation chances will increase through the day Tuesday, as southern branch wave lifts into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Thermal profile from GFS and ECMWF sounding depict a mixture of freezing rain and sleet possible north of I-40 Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Forecast confidence begins to wane a bit by Wednesday, due to increased model spread. Discounting the much colder Canadian model outlier, it appears that the Arctic airmass will modify Wednesday afternoon, under low amplitude ridging aloft. This may result in a transition to rain over northern portions of the Midsouth, but this may be short-lived. Temps will likely fall below freezing north of I-40 Wednesday night, as more precipitation arrives, associated with an ejecting southern branch shortwave. Confidence in precipitation type is lower with this second wintry event due to model differences in the Arctic airmass position and strength over the Great Plains.
-
Let's see where we are this evening at 0z. If west TN is still looking at wintry precip being modeled, probably time to create a thread for them. All three deterministic models have very different placements for the anomalously cold air mass, and even with 100 hours to go until the first wave of frozen precip, solutions vary significantly. The 6z GFS is without some of its cold source again. Looks to me like the CMC and GFS are a hair warmer.
-
And then look at the 30d 500mb map from the Euro Weeklies...not an exact match but you can see what they have that analog heavily weighted.
-
I have been digging through analogs....Feb 1994 and 2011 have some resemblance to LR modeling.
-
Main thing I see is AN heights over Alaska and a very cold NA continent. There are some AN heights over the pole.
-
The pattern on LR modeling is volatile w/ a lot of variability - nothing locks in. Way more variable than what we have seen this winter due to shortening wavelengths. Also, JB mentioned the MJO signal typically has less impact later in winter....I may have misheard or interpreted that.
-
Yeah, Nino springs are often COLD! I would think the mountains will see snow deep into spring if true.
-
Maybe the best I can do is heights over Alaska are AN. Overall, the continent is just cold regardless of the pattern. The MJO may well just make it less cold here. IDK.
-
JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling. MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan). Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE. I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies.
-
I am not convinced that tonight's Euro Weeklies are correct....It looks to me like convection is about to fire around Indonesia if the CPC is correct. That should lead to the MJO warm tour mid-month, but the Weeklies are having none of it. They are basically BN for temps for the next 46 days. I will hold with the idea that a warm-up is coming mid-month. That seems about right, and fits with Indonesian convection. That said, there are some rare examples where it stays cold despite the MJO. I am thinking 94 or 96 (Jan-Feb) did that. I can't remember. If someone remembers, let me know. JB had a great post about this tonight.....
-
All three deterministic models have a slider. The CMC is a bit more north and mainly west TN. The Euro and GFS have more of a west to east axis. Again....lots of plates for modeling to juggle. Survive and advance. That is all we can do.
-
Euro had it at 12z. We are also talking the 105 hour....not day 7-8. But yeah, definitely don't share a foxhole w/ the GFS. We know how that turns out.
-
Welp, I gott a run. I hate you cut-out mid-run....but that was slider city. Timing of precip, HP or no HP over the top, etc....TBD. I do like that the 18z GFS is similar to the Euro.
-
At 165, this would result in a fairly significant winter storm for the Valley and looks somewhat similar to the 12z Euro.
