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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I will say this, the system this weekend will help with drought conditions over E TN. The slp slows down and almost stalls.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Certainly possible and that fits my overall winter ideas. That said, my concern is that we are long overdue for a winter with few cold snaps - another balancing act of sorts. Two of the last three winters have been good for middle and west TN at times. I think eastern areas have the best chance this winter as coastals spill down cold air. But we are due for a dud. Good winters come in cycles and so do bad ones. A lot can change between now and late January. Some of the control runs show a couple of 3-5 day cold snaps during January - maybe we can sync up with one of those. For now, we have a long wait I think...hopefully I am wrong. On the plus side, weather for running has been optimal.
  3. Carvers Gap
    With the exception of the cool down after the coastal between Dec15-20, I really don't see a sustained cold snap on any modeling that is actually believable. It is certainly easier to forecast warmth and be correct! LOL. No cold source, no delivery system if it was there, and a bad Pacific/Atlantic setup = pretty meh weather here. That is about all that I have. We will hope(cause that is all that we have) that the second half of winter changes up, but again, my confidence is less and less with each passing day regarding a colder second half of winter. If we can get just normal temps during January, we could maybe score. For now, the Canadian torch is inbound with a vengeance. If you ever wonder what weather maps looked like during the 90s Ninos, just take a look at ensembles and extended modeling....I wish that I had better news. So this is how I am going to play this prolonged warm-up. Unless you hear me talking about cooler weather after the 20th, just assume I think it is going to be warm. I am not going to be one of those broken-record, Debbie Downers from other forums that like to rub salt in the wound, and bang their chests about how right they are. Other than that, I may track this coastal around the 17th just for fun, and maybe some flurries to end that storm.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z modeling is flirting with a stalled Nor'Easter along the coast at 168ish. ICON had a really bizarre run, but I think that is what it was getting at.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just a quick glance at the MJO plots this morning on CPC, and they do look like they are correcting towards the colder phases of the MJO vs the COD solutions yesterday. What I see this morning are full, low amplitude passes through the cold phases on several models. I would suspect that we see a full turn at normal amplitude through those phases(whatever normal is....just not low). So, maybe we are seeing a combination of modeling missing the pass through the warm phases(consequence is delayed onset of colder pattern), and now are "seeing" the MJO move into colder phases without dying out. I am not certain of that, but I suspect that is what caused the model adjustments that we saw a couple of days ago. Also, I would suspect we see yet another loop through the warm phases after the potential cold phase pass. Just looking at Holston's post yesterday, there is convection in the MJO regions which produce warm phases on MJO plots. After that second pass through warm phases, I think Nino takes over....Cosgrove would be money if that hits.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Great point, and the 6z GEFS does show BN heights undercutting the ridge in the LR
  7. Carvers Gap
    Impressive, impressive storm on both the 0z CMC and Euro operationals around the 17th. It is a rainer(CMC has some backside flurries), but a very impressive coastal. Powell posted a slide from yesterday's model run. Still there today. That is a Nino storm track, and a good sign for later this winter I think. Interesting overnight change, the CFSv2 seasonals flipped cold for Jan-March. Do I believe them? Not enough to say more than a couple of sentences. I wonder if models are correcting re: the MJO? Again, they misread the MJO and didn't take it through the warm phases. Maybe they have done the same with cold phases?
  8. Carvers Gap
    I lived in Knoxville in 96...first job. I kept coming home to TRI to find mounds of snow in the parking lots that year. It would start about the Greenville exit. My parents had like 36" of snow between two storms.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I was at UT at the time. One of my roommates was from Powell - actually knew three of the guys from the team which went to state maybe in 89. That year was also when Lenoir City was hit by the tornado in '93, right? I remember seeing all of the requests for EMS on TV.
  10. Carvers Gap
    This was my general rule as a kid(and it was my rule...so TIFWIW)....if we didn't see some light accumulations by the end of December, winter was going to be tough. During my time in Florida, I used to check back in TN to see when the first snows had arrived JB is worried that a storm this month may cause some damage even if it is just rain. That is crazy strong.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Stuff is gonna be blooming if this projected warmth(after the 20th) lasts into January. I have stuff with full buds right now...they just haven't bloomed. Someone had a great quote maybe in the NE forum...Christmas lights and blooming forsythia just don't go together. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Hand-offs and Miller Bs are a pain. That said, TRI scores with Miller Bs - but I still don't like them. Great post, though. Many great winters weren't exactly cold. They were stormy. I still like our last half of winter chances, but am less confident as some of the features showing up currently(GoA low and WAR) were present during some of the less snowy Nino winters. And it is just December 11th, there is still a lot of ground to cover. I think December, we can take off the board though unless we get a miracle.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I don't think anything in weather is ever a certainty. We "should" see a mean trough over the southeast by mid-late Jan. If so, severe is on hibernation for a while - if/when that trough is in place. I can't speak for the rest of December, though, as we still will likely see some ridging, and that could open the door for trouble/instability. El Nino patterns are actually known for there stability from mid winter into spring. But as we have seen this week, the weather is gonna do what it is gonna do whether it agrees with our opinions or not. However, January tornadoes would be incredibly rare at this latitude, but not impossible. Early December outbreaks are not uncommon I don't "think." AN temps here would likely be 50s to low 60s in January...that would make it tough to seed an outbreak. Where we need to watch is where wavelengths shorten up with a cutter, and allow warm air to surge northward in front of a front. The Gulf of Mexico is what drives our tornado outbreaks. We live in one of the the areas of the world where tornadoes are common, and it is directly related to that. The GOM isn't going anywhere soon, so the potential will always be there. I have been in three bad tornado outbreaks. One was in maybe in July at TRI. Another preceded the blizzard of '93. The third one was during the mid to late 70s in Knoxville as a kid. Oddly, I don't remember a lot of tornado outbreaks during the Nino winters of the 90s during mid-winter.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America. I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow. I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that. This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct. Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s. During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return. We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all. Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern. The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break. By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal. I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those. Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies now have a trough in the West to start January. LOL. Cosgrove mentioned a thaw was coming mid-January. Aren't we going to have to go in the freezer first before we have a thaw? LOL. You all know that I like LC...but I did chuckle when I read that. I will say in LC's defense that he has been adamant that this winter would be better than the last, but that winter really wouldn't get going until late January...and I mean adamant.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Tagging onto Holston's great post(post of the year worthy) about the jet extension...the MA has a great discussion this afternoon about the same post. I encourage everyone who isn't a met to read them(Holston's and the MA). That extension originally would have led to a nice -EPO and +PNA. What modeling missed was that it was going to almost hit an extreme level which caused the Aleutian low to become stronger, and it formed a massive GoA low which will cause the chinook. Long story short, modeling is showing a retraction of that jet, and that should allow for a more typical Aleutian low placement/intensity, and consequently by early January, allow for BN heights in the SE(reference Brooklyn's post there...and paraphrased). Some strong posters basically noted it was less of the normal can-kicking and mentioned that there were good reasons for this delay, but that it was only a delay of about a week.
  17. Carvers Gap
    They are definitely on the table if extended LR modeling is even halfway correct. I tend to think we get the "good" El Nino, but can-kicking is usually the first sign that winter is not going as planned. And this recent can-kick was a big one...if indeed it was a can kick. Still wouldn't surprise me to see modeling come back around to a better solution at 500 patterns by just after Christmas. Cold air is still way out there iMO.
  18. Carvers Gap
    For your region, I think Nino climatology works against you during most years. I don't think you will eat crow on this one. The 6-8 week rule is generally a good one. I will probably start the clock on this one when it started raining a couple of weeks ago. So, the second or third week of January should be a shake-up to that run. Now, if the November rule is in play this winter...the shake-up could very well lead to an even warmer pattern during the second half of winter. Let's hope 2000s Nino climatology wins out, and we see winter during the second half. Those terrible Nino winters of the 90s had many mowing their yards by late January or earlier.
  19. Carvers Gap
    In middle and west TN, your winters have been much different than ours in TRI during the past three years as La Nina winters are better for you all. Normally, NE TN is the second snowiest place in the forum - not so during moderate to strong Nina years. Middle and West TN have had more cold and much more snow during the past three years....Moderate to strong Nina winters in NE TN usually are not great. Re: the November rule, it certainly has significant merit though there are some notable recent exceptions like most wx analogs. I do think that if things cool off early, that is a good sign that we don't enter winter with so much warm air to scour out of the SE and the East Coast...probably also means a good snowpack is building to our north and the delivery mechanism for that cold is active. Those wx patterns tend to repeat during winter. One rule that is interesting is that where it rains during fall tends to also signal where cold will go during winter. I have followed that rule for a long time, and I would guess it is connected to John's guidance in some way. I think I got the "rain rule" from JB. But after significant drought this fall, my confidence in a cold winter was low. Seasonal to slightly BN are what I have for E TN and AN for middle and west re: temps for DJF. I will say that my confidence in having much cold at all is dropping quickly - but that is just a guess. The Nino winters of the 90s had some nada(no snow) winters, and most were lousy IMBY with the exception of some notable one-off snows. The 2000s have seen some better Nino winters. I think the best thing that we can do is to set or exceptions very low, and enjoy what we get. If we are at the New Year with little on the radar so to speak, we need to really dial it back. As for extended LR modeling, the Euro Weeklies have been so bad...I am no longer going to use them as part of discussion for this forum. The GEFS extended have been much better as have the seasonal CANSIPS.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Volcano latitude plays a part, and we certainly don't want an underwater volcano going off again!
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS actually looks decent by Dec 26th - like the old Euro Weeklies. Source regions are AN though. It is pretty textbook Nino - SE trough but more than marginal temps(meaning cold is absent). Again, their should be an MJO correction. That is a good step late in that run. That would probably deliver cold by the second week in January. The 18z operational has high elevation snow on the 25th.....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Anyone north of the TN border seeing snow or rain/snow mix? I see it on radarscope as the system is departing.....
  23. Carvers Gap
    Exactly. I agree with the overall sentiment. But if there is a trough set up over the SE, that makes it much tougher to get severe. During spring when a trough is over the SE, it pretty much ends severe season. Cool and rainy conditions make for poor setups for severe. We need warm conditions with cold fronts charging southeast...like yesterday. I have not talked about a torch. A torch here is often linked to a SER or Bermuda high. I would be surprised to see either. For now just think weather like you might see in England. I think we will see a lot of cloudy days in the 50s with cool overnight temps. But I do agree that we will likely see severe again before we see measurable snow. Just watch for a ridge rolling through like we had last week? When it departs due to a Canadian air mass...severe follows. I don’t remember a lot of severe with zonal flow. We need an amplified pattern with short wavelengths.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That dateline firing "should" allow the MJO to rotate thought some of the good phases(cold). It is one reason I think MJO plots are in error today. Awesome post. Yeah, the jet extension (which I rarely pay attention to...unless someone posts about it) is problematic as is the cold moving eastward towards Alaska(JB posted about that today). And looks highly, highly likely that a Canadian chinook is inbound. That said, volatility usually leads to more volatility....my guess would be is that the volatility coin eventually lands heads-up for us.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, no winter cancel stuff from me. Other forums have plenty of those folks. Heck some of them are canceling multiple winters to quote one poster. LOL. I think we are 3-4 weeks out(minimum) from anything that even resembles a decent pattern. That said, I do think it is highly plausible that modeling is in extreme error in plotting the MJO. For several of the past winters, modeling just assumes the MJO is going to crash into the COD when in reality it kept on making the turn. I do think modeling completely mistook the current MJO, and was in error in not taking it into 4-6. I believe it is also making the same mistake for 7-2, meaning it is trying to go low amplitude or not at all while in cold phases (the same error it made during warm phases). I would suspect we see a correction in LR modeling during the upcoming week. In some ways, the Euro Weeklies began that adjustment this evening. The consequence of the MJO miscalculation is that modeling brought cold too quickly. Now the consequence is that is maybe muting a significant cold shot just after the New Year. We will see. The 12z GEFS looks great at 500...just don't look at temp anomalies.
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