87storms

For whatever reason, the upper level flow has been subpar for nearly 2 years now. I don’t know a lot, but I’m able to tell a quality h5 pattern and I haven’t really seen one yet. I know the 540 thickness doesn’t need to be under us to snow if we have an infiltration of cold at the lower levels, but we can’t get a high pressure to stay locked in when we need it. Maybe next week will start a better trend.

That's the elusive look.

The recent rains are definitely a consolation prize to the lack of snow. I'm actually kind of interested in the line moving through Tuesday evening.

I need to see a vort sliding under our lat with a high pressing in across the GL and northeast. Yesterday’s setup was mucked up by the vort unraveling into the upper midwest prior to the surface low developing. With the mild waters the mid levels are getting warm nose’d almost every storm it seems.

March is gonna be epic... March Madness, that is.

I'm starting to get winter of 2018/19 vibes where we weaseled our way to the snow mean by playing the numbers game in an active pattern. Overall, it's just not cold enough. I'm not even sure I really want to track another one of those brief snow to mix/rain events anymore. There's been too many of those the last couple years. My goal right now is a 4-6" snowstorm...no sleet...just a simple storm like early January 2022.

You make a valid point. Fine, I'll track it.

I don’t know if I trust a midweek digital snow, though maybe that’s the new norm.

Another gullywasher arriving Tuesday, too.

Yea, I think ultimately we needed a fresh Canadian hp, not an antecedent airmass, at least for this particular setup. This was a useful trial run, though.

Just took a timely walk because midway through it started mixing with sleet and was all pingers by the time I got home.

It’s pretty wintry out there right now. Snow is sticking to everything here. Millvillewx mentioned the valley here can do a good job holding the cold in and that’s exactly what’s happening so far.

Hagerstown area always seemed like the prime spot for this one.

Still crystal’ing in Frederick. Mostly light/steady. Contemplating a stroll before the inevitable flip.

Steady snow with healthy dendrites here in Frederick…just north of 15.

Snow/sleet mix in Frederick and accumulating. Roads are getting nasty.

Snuck a trip in to Beans and Bagels. Just a sleet mix here. 30F on my car gauge. It is cold…maybe the heavier stuff will consist of that elusive white stuff.

I see a winter storm warning and 6-12” lol. They’re probably on the line, but will clearly benefit from a more mature lp off the coast.

I went to Winchester a couple years ago...definitely a nice, little walkable downtown. If I remember correctly, everything was kinda consolidated into one long strip of shops and eats.

I'm thinking Boston.

If you were to show me this 500mb map and nothing else, I would assume a rainstorm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2024010606&fh=8 We almost need an arctic airmass in place to overcome this type of mess at the upper levels. Winds near the surface are straight out of the southwest: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024010606&fh=7 I'm going to be content if I see an hour of snow out of this.

Once I looked at the jet stream, I figured it would cut. Trough goes negative too soon, I guess.

Personal weather station

15" is wild, but I could see them doing pretty well with this storm. Driving up some of those back roads is treacherous, though.

Looks like clouds are on our doorstep: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12 Re cad...