87storms

Outstanding weather to finish the day. Light wind made for some ideal basketball conditions. And not too dry out either…had a little leftover humidity out there today.

Back to a nw/breezy/drought flow. Temps are nice. I can’t deny that. One thing that I’ve noticed is that following a frontal system, especially a GL to northeast traveler, there’s often times clouds building in from the nw in sync with daytime heating. It’s one of the reasons I typically prefer humidity around here lol.

My amateur take is that it's been a combo of the jet stream being too far north (just look at the track of the low pressure centers which typically end up into the GL/Northeast) and an unfavorable Atlantic (lack of a sustained Bermuda High setup...instead we get precip scraps from storms heading way north followed by a NW flow for several days). I'm mostly generalizing, but assuming the general pattern stays the same I think it'll take the jet sagging south as we get into cool season for the downsloping desert areas to perform better and/or some kind of tropical remnants.

Extremely brief, random imby pop up cell in progress. The forces against rain here are real lol.

Looks like around 0.15" fell from the earlier round here. Radar doesn't look too inspiring, but it's an airmass that's capable of a popup cell, so we'll see.

We have a Richmond/Raleigh climate now, so that wouldn’t surprise me.

Getting a little bit of clearing skies up here. I’ll take what the Nam 3k is showing for later. Unfortunately, it’s often times wrong on where the jackpot will be. Congrats to someone.

I’m all in…better chance for severe.

It’s interesting, if anything. I think the lack of Atlantic return flow and/or a sustained Bermuda High isn’t helping. For areas like ours, we’re relying on a clipper-type of a pattern. I don’t think my location requires precip bands coming from the south or off the Atlantic, but any location on the downsloping side of things probably needs a system/setup to add extra lift to overcome those other variables. Looks like a sw flow develops tomorrow, so at least we’ll have that in our favor.

Got a little rain last night, but was hoping for a t-storm. The ground got a free sprinkler, though.

Looks like a 12-1am Frederick arrival, assuming it doesn’t start to go poof once it gets into the Hagerstown valley.

Kinda liking the airmass in place for at least the “potential” of overnight storms.

2nd time I've seen machine learning mentioned in the LWX disco (didn't realize AI tech was already used in forecasting): Monday continues to look like the next widespread potential for rain and some severe thunderstorms. The one aspect of this system different from the past few SVR events, is the better forcing is slightly delayed from peak heading. A potent low pressure system will scoot by well to our north across the Great Lakes region. Guidance recently has trended slightly south with the low. This inherently impacts the warm frontal position. The low will be accompanied by a positively tilted and relatively deep upper trough (for August). As this approaches from the west, expect shower and thunderstorms to develop late Monday into Monday night. Could see some development ahead of the primary system as well along the lee trough due to diurnal heating as well. As usual, these could bring some isolated damaging wind gusts. But the main threat comes with the Monday night round. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns with these storms. CSU machine learning continues to highlight the FA with modest SVR probs as well as SPC with a Slight Risk for SVR wx generally west of the Blue Ridge. The warm frontal positioning will influence the tornado threat. Additionally, flooding can`t be ruled out, especially if the front manages to stall near the area. Do think the deep southerlies should push the warm front north of the area rather quickly, but still, given 2+ inch PWATs and a lingering boundary, there exists at least an isolated flooding threat Monday night.

I think it just gives an idea of the precip struggles on the leeside of the mountains in this persistent GL low/NW flow type of a pattern. Looks like there's some more TBD showers possible later. Kinda makes sense given the airmass, but those Blue Ridge mountains are a force to be reckoned with.

One thing we’re good at is a relatively quick change in humidity. The drought causing nw flow to start the day has been replaced by increasing humidity. Certainly not tropical out there, but a noticeable shift by early evening.

90 day departure in precip (you have to select it from the dropdown) is still pretty legit around here: https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~climate/ClimateInfo/prcp.php The 270 split storm magnet has been in full force, but many areas are still several inches below normal.

Caught it (or another), too, looking east/southeast over by Gambrill while shooting some hoops. Made for a nice backdrop.

Garden variety shower moving through. All of a sudden it wants to rain in Frederick.

I feel like the gfs has done well so far with most of the precip closer to the mason Dixon line.

Getting clipped by a stat padding light rain shower here.

Looks like a chance at more precip tomorrow with a decent vort pass and potentially more intriguing weather on Monday.

Latest HRRR brings one last course (dessert round) through the area around 7-8pm, though that probably falls into the TBD category.

The lightning in the cells to the south looks borderline strobe.

Still raining and rumbling here. That 270 commute looks like it's about to get interesting.

Yea, it's still going here. Very much needed. I saw some healthy lightning the other day, so I was good on that lol. The wind was feisty for a bit, though.