87storms

There’s still time for a hecs, but this is the type of system we should be able to score at least on the front end. We’re just not good at arctic air…and that’s really our best way to tame a southern stream system.

18z will be telling.

I’m starting to buy into the Pac being the biggest issue. It’s hard to get cold enough if there’s a constant stream of vorts moving through the northern tier of the country. During the shorter days, we want the coldest locations to have clear skies at night. I’m over-generalizing, but the lack of clippers is a hint that the northern stream is just too far north the last several years. That said, we do have near peak climo working for us this weekend.

What I don’t want is to see this start as mix/rain along 95. I think that could indicate temp issues upstairs even for places further to the nw.

12z gfs won’t be making new friends.

Yea, there's been a number of times where cad wasn't really showing up until closer to gametime. Seems like that's turning into the x-factor.

I’m not seeing much of a cad sig. Seems like there’s a southerly wind component even near the surface. I’m assuming it’s because the hp to the north just doesn’t have time to settle in. I wonder if this is another case of just not having enough blocking in place. With that said, maybe the dry air in place prior to the precip arriving will help with the first half of the storm.

Lol yea, it's kinda weird.

It's funny how storms just simply don't like to hit during the week. It took a reverse bust in Jan '00 to get a Tuesday MECS.

We need to adjust the slope of the regression line towards zero to account for the weekend rule. I’m kidding, but I do think there’s been times where cad (assuming that’s in play) has been under-modeled. That, along with a quicker arrival of precip, might offset some of the initial temp issues.

It was a wintry scene on top of Gambrill. Light snow and a coating on trees/leaves. Elevation was 1600’. Driving back down it quickly turned back over to light rain. No sleet…it was entirely elevation-dependent.

Sneaky little system. Just looked at the radar. Might have to check out the situation in Gambrill…if I can un-lazy myself.

The only thing that’s a little wonky to me about this setup is seeing the surface high out in front sliding offshore of the mid-Atlantic/SE. It creates what looks like a banana high in the other direction. Not sure if that’s a hint at more of a mixing issue than advertised or if the high following that across Canada will cancel it out. Tbd

The 12z euro will be telling.

It's honestly further south than I'd like it. This has total wiggle room to come north with that HP to the north and low dews. I'd like to lock this one in.

The Wegmans/Giant over there is my goto (that or the Hmart off of W. Patrick, depending on my mood)...I'm over in Walnut Ridge/Whittier. The amount of construction since I moved here 2 years ago is significant. I think at minimum, we're looking at snow to start...assuming no drastic changes to the track.

As is, it's perfect, but I'd be ok with it not trending any further south lol.

Yea, I don't like seeing that. I'd be ok if only the higher elevations score with this next system, though for now it's looking like even lower elevations could get in on the action. It's all TBD when it's 5+ days out.

El Nino's are cool.

Yea, I remember that year pretty well. There hasn't been anything close to the severity of those ice storms since and I also remember that extremely high ratio 2-4" deal we had. Dews were very low for that event. The sleet parade was the result of a low forming along a stalled out frontal boundary near the gulf coast. It snowed for like 5 minutes and the rest was several inches of pure sleet. LaGuardia ended up with close to a foot of snow lol, if I recall correctly (from news reports). That was an equally frustrating and interesting storm.

I was too young to appreciate ‘83, but I do remember being in awe at the amount of snow on our patio. To me, 2016 is the king. ‘96 and ‘03 are next up, but there’s some SECS/MECS sleeper picks that were just as enjoyable. For example, Feb 21, ‘15 was an overachieving, quality daytime snowfall.

Yea, I remember we had to use the snowblower for the 2nd one, though Feb ‘87 is prob the one that took my snow obsession to another level. That one was the mothership of heavy, wet snowstorms.

I grew up in the 80s (Silver Spring) and can confirm that it was the best snow decade that I’ve experienced. I’m sure being a kid probably exaggerates some of the snowfall, but I just remember there being a lot of days with snow on the ground.

If that happens, I'm buying a Frederick Flying Cows hoodie.

Yea, there's a return flow later in the week around the hp that moves through the region and doesn't appear to be a strong enough hp building in from the north to offset that. It almost seems like it's a good setup as far as H-L positioning, but too far north and west.