87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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Flaking in Frederick now
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still virga here, but it's incoming.
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4-7" for frederick...that'll work. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ004&warncounty=MDC021&firewxzone=MDZ004&local_place1=Frederick MD&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=39.4157&lon=-77.412#.YeRiIP7MK5c
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arctic express...a day late, but gonna be hard to scour out for the western folks. nasty stuff once the changeover occurs.
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yea, seems like there's a more easterly component on the gfs than the high res models. this is one of those storms where mets earn their paper. gonna be a lot of flight delays incoming as well.
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hiking old rag today would be something else.
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true, that was an imby post lol. my guess is 1pm for frederick, but precip is high-tailing it.
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basically following those 850 winds. verbatim would be about a 2pm arrival (maybe earlier).
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satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 water vapor: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24 cod: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad
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hoping it stays snow longer than expected for obvious reasons, but also because this has legitimate power outage potential for the northern tier. i don't feel like dealing with that.
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This has potential to be a sneaky event.
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I’m relying on the hills between Germantown and Frederick to be my defense mechanism here at delaying the subtropical airmass at 850…I’m expecting at least 45 mins of crystals falling from the sky.
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Can’t go wrong with daytime snow…so that’s a plus. I think the ice situation could be worse than we think. This is a stout high even if it’s moving offshore. I know one thing…after taking a little tumble on a sidewalk while leaving canton last night, I’ll be paying attention to black ice. Someone must have washed a car or something lol. But most importantly I didn’t drop my leftovers.
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Yea that 18z run ain’t it
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yea, and that's just as annoying as a sharp cutoff like a couple weeks ago. hopefully it's wrong, but there's a lot of consensus towards that high just not being in the right spot.
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different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end.
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we need this storm tomorrow instead of sunday.
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surface looks marginal better. maybe we'll get a slightly quicker transfer, though not sure that would even be better with that easterly component.
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sleet sucks, though i could do without power outages (though a little ice can be fun).
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The placement of the high just doesn’t seem ideal. Surface winds look they’re out of the east by the time the precip arrives and the 850 layer looks potent out of the se. I’m assuming it’ll be a battleground for a few hours, though I guess a quicker arrival or slower departing high could help with that.
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The clipper system looks healthy on its own. Might be a cleaner event if it didn’t phase so quickly with that other west coast energy (or if it was the only system). Hopefully it trends a little further east towards gametime.
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I’m going to rely on the hills of sugarloaf to Damascus to protect the Frederick side, or at least delay the warm nose.
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gfs hr 84 sounding is still really good for the burbs, at least. even dc is still below freezing at the mid levels. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2022011312&fh=84
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oh, i'm still locked in on tracking this one lol, but starting to see some consensus that favors a more inland track instead of a wall to wall snowstorm, but we'll see...who knows.
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it is faster, which is better for snow prospects given the eroding high. i liked that part of the trend. many of the 90s noreasters had snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow, so this isn't really anything new. even in 93, 96 and 03 the 95 corridor switched to sleet/fzr for a time.
