Mailman

Hard to be optimistic with this sort of setup. At least for me, anyhow.

Couple inches down here.

Isn't there a banter thread? Anyway... rates have picked up a little bit down this way. Roads are a little on the dicey side.

Euro gives us something to track for Saturday.

The models did nail the dry slot days in advance.

Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Areas affected...eastern Ohio/northern and western Pennsylvania/West Virginia Panhandle/western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170138Z - 170745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is forecast over the next several hours from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to the western half of New York. Widespread rates of 1" to 2" per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows an upper low moving eastward across the western Carolinas at this time, with a turn to the northeast -- into Virginia -- expected tonight. Meanwhile, a 994mb surface low analyzed over southeastern Virginia is forecast to retrograde north-northwestward with time, reaching a position over south-central Pennsylvania by sunrise. Currently, a pronounced dry slot is observed nosing northwestward from North Carolina across western Virginia into West Virginia/far southwestern Pennsylvania, near the nose of an 80-plus kt southeasterly low-level jet. Intense low-level warm advection across the Upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians area has resulted in the snowfall becoming mixed with -- or even changing over briefly to -- freezing rain and/or sleet, mainly south of the Mason/Dixon line and southeast of the Ohio River over the past hour. To the north, precipitation has remained in the form of snowfall -- heavy at times across portions of the region as heavier bands spread northward/northwestward. As the aforementioned upper low advances, and the dry slot continues to pivot northeastward with time, the primary wraparound/deformation zone will become established from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to western New York. Within this area, strong ascent, a saturated lower and middle troposphere, and favorable vertical thermal profiles will combine to support persistent, moderate to heavy snowfall through and beyond midnight, with rates 1" per hour and locally near 2" per hour in heavier bands. ..Goss.. 01/17/2022

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... No major changes were needed for the eve as the overall forecast trend remains on track with 1.5 to 2 inches of snow and numerous reports of mixed pcpn reported as of 00z. The additional measure of increased wind gusts in the wake of the low was completed for Monday, but any additional headlines were deferred to the mid shift as per the ongoing warning.

Back to bigger flakes. So yeah... it's an ever-changing situation down this way.

Freezing rain.

Down to 24 degrees. Dew point of 22.

Coming down good here.

Brief period of something.. now we're back to all snow.

25 degrees and not snow.

Mesoscale Discussion 0080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Areas affected...central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162124Z - 170330Z SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation has begun to transition to moderate snow across portions of eastern KY, southern OH and WV. An increase in heavy snow is expected late this afternoon and evening with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. DISCUSSION...Moderate and heavy snow should continue to become more common this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley ahead of a potent upper low moving out of the southeast. Strong diffluence aloft overspreading the ongoing precipitation has resulted in increasing coverage and intensity with several reports of moderate snow appearing in eastern KY over the last hour. As large-scale ascent and strong mid-level warm advection continue to increase through this afternoon, precipitation rates should follow suit, increasing after 22z. It still may take several hours for the entirety of the precip to change over to snow given warm air trapped on the windward side of the Appalachians. However, dynamic cooling from increased precipitation rates and the loss of diurnal heating should accelerate the change over after dark. Hi-res guidance is in strong agreement that band of moderate to heavy snow will likely take shape within the axis of deformation across eastern KY, western WV and eastern OH over the next couple of hours. This band will likely support snow rates of 1+ inches per hour through late afternoon and into this evening as it migrates north eventually reaching eastern OH and western PA. The corridor along the OH/PA border appears most likely to see the heaviest snowfall rates given the favorable overlap with strong isentropic ascent at the nose of the warm conveyor and enhanced deformation to the northwest of the upper low. Snow rates may briefly approach 2+ inches per hour within this corridor, especially on the windward side of any locally higher terrain. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2022

Still snow here.

Snow has resumed.

Don't shoot the messenger.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Changes for the late aftn update included the insertion of a freezing rain mention for areas east of I 79 given some initial reports south of I 70 as well as a model trend of strong warm advection support for that scenario. Overnight totals for those areas will likely be degraded a bit given the retardation of dendritic growth. Nevertheless, deformation on Monday will support continued and prolonged snowfall, so snow totals remain the dominant feature of this event. Elsewhere, the expected frontogenetic band with 1-2 inch/hour rates is also likely to be shunted slightly westward and a storm total tweak was completed for that eventuality. Gusty wind is expected to develop in the eastern WV ridges on Monday, and will likely result in blowing snow and lowered visibility.

ZR in Morgantown.

27 degrees here. A little white outside.

It has begun to spit snow.

Looks like another threat next weekend, huh?

We shall see.