Mailman

Dang.

Double-digits, here we come!

Can't say I hold a lot of faith in the CMC; however, it has been consistent with those big totals. 12z might be the biggest yet.

Massive freezing rain event on the NAM.

Personally, I am rooting for the 18z RGEM solution to verify.

Canadian is a winner.

Seems like GFS has held serve.

Fries went to Buffalo to be warning coordinator.

Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 12m Another tool to look at. the ECMWF EFI for snow. Clearly showing the signal for heavy snow west of the I-95. This is from 00Z and like all guidance will jump around. However, you take from this that there is indeed a significant snowstorm coming. @breakingweather

GFS looks good.

18z GFS ended up okay. Got rid of that Mon River screwzone that showed up at 12z.

Jan '94 mixed in Morgantown, but not in PA, right?

18z GFS seems promising so far, I think.

Euro getting close.

Talk about a weenie run. Last frame has a banger, too.

3" here.

Been in some decent banding down here for the last hour or so.

I remember that one. That storm was a good one.

I like clippers. They always seem to overperform here.

GFS is disappointing.

Mesoscale Discussion 1882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Areas affected...Portions of western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212356Z - 220200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to persist for a couple more hours before storms weaken and the severe threat gradually diminishes. Given the expected short duration tornado threat, a Tornado Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells continue to exhibit instances of strong low-level rotation, from Butler County PA to Ohio County WV. Multiple TDS signatures were noted with some of these storms in the past few minutes via KPBZ dual-polarimetric radar data. These storms continue to rotate within an environment characterized by weak buoyancy (MLCAPE barely reaching 500 J/kg MLCAPE), but with strong low-level shear. Specifically, PBZ VAD profiler data have shown consistent elongated hodographs with 200+ 0-1km SRH, with METAR observations also showing some localized backing of the surface winds across southwest PA. As such, storm organization and periods of low-level rotation/brief tornadoes will likely continue for a couple more hours, before boundary-layer stabilization results in a gradual waning of the severe threat. A Tornado Watch issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Dial.. 10/21/2021

I am really looking forward to the Ida remnants making its way up here.