Mailman

Had some action in southern Westmoreland County a little bit ago.

Confirmed brief spin-up in Finleyville last evening.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 93 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1226 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 PAC003-005-051-059-063-065-125-129-160000- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.A.0093.180515T1626Z-180516T0000Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALLEGHENY FAYETTE GREENE WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARMSTRONG INDIANA JEFFERSON THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BROOKVILLE, CANONSBURG, CONNELLSVILLE, FORD CITY, GREENSBURG, INDIANA, KITTANNING, LATROBE, MASONTOWN, MURRYSVILLE, NEW KENSINGTON, PITTSBURGH METRO AREA, PUNXSUTAWNEY, UNIONTOWN, WASHINGTON, AND WAYNESBURG.

I think SPC put up the same watch box the last three days. lol.

Mesoscale Discussion 0408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Areas affected...southeast OH...southwest PA...central/northern WV...western MD...and northwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 141556Z - 141700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and accelerate east/southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging winds. Some risk will also exist for a tornado or two and isolated large hail will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued prior to 17Z. DISCUSSION...Regional composite radar imagery shows an area of thunderstorms in progress at 1555Z along the PA/OH border, with more isolated development farther west into central OH. These storms are just north of a quasi-stationary composite surface front that extends east-west through central IN/OH and then southeast across eastern VA. Continued diurnal heating of a moist airmass (surface dew points mid-upper 60s) will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to result in moderate/strong surface-based instability this afternoon. Moderately strong westerly mid-level flow will contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts across the area. Current expectations are for the cluster of storms to become increasingly organized over the next few hours as updrafts are able to tap increasing boundary layer instability, and possibly merge with storms developing farther west along the front. A forward-propagating linear convective system is expected to develop and moving southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging winds. Some risk for a QLCS tornado will also exist, and the stronger updrafts will also be capable of isolated severe hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 17Z based on this expected scenario. ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/14/2018

Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018 Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...northern WV including Panhandle...western MD...southwest PA...northwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131756Z - 132000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and move southeast, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed prior to 20Z/4 pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis at 17Z placed a nearly stationary front through central portions of OH and extending east/southeast into far northern VA. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer (lower/mid 60s surface dew points) combined with relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will result in pockets of moderate surface-based instability by mid afternoon. Latest visible imagery shows deepening cumulus clouds near/south of the front, and continued heating combined with weak frontal convergence should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. Veering flow in the lowest 1-2 KM becomes largely unidirectional within the bulk of the cloud-bearing layer, with deep-layer shear ranging between 35-45 kts. Initial thunderstorm development may pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Slightly more favorable low-level shear near the front would suggest at least some risk for a tornado, especially within the first few hours of initiation. With time, a couple of small clusters of storms may move southeast with a risk for severe hail/wind. The area is being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, which may be needed prior to 20Z. ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/13/2018

Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018 Areas affected...Southeast OH/western and southern PA/western and northern MD/northern WV/far northern VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84... Valid 122105Z - 122300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging wind and hail persist across much of WW 84 late this afternoon. Northern portions of this watch should be able to be cleared first, though storms currently moving into the northwest part of WW 84 preclude any clearing of counties at this time. DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a leading broken band of storms extending from south-central PA (Huntingdon County) to central OH (Muskingum County). Some of these storms have been severe, thus far, producing large hail and damaging winds. Forcing for ascent attendant to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) will continue to advance from eastern OH through southern PA and northern MD through this evening. This combined with moderate instability and strong effective bulk shear along and south of the leading band of storms will support a continued severe weather threat with the stronger storms. Meanwhile, a second shorter band of storms was located from northern Beaver County, PA to Holmes County, OH, with this activity appearing to be co-located with the MCV. The Beaver County storm was moving to the east at 45 kt and could pose a severe threat. However, this activity may be slightly elevated as it is located north of a wind shift. Locally strong winds and/or hail cannot be ruled out, though the overall severe threat across the far northwest to north-central part of WW 84 may be diminishing. ..Peters.. 05/12/2018

Enhanced risk for tomorrow.

We haven't even had a nice size storm to track within like 96 hours. lol. How bad is that?

I had 19" on the ground at one time here within the last 12 months. I'm not going to complain (well, at least try not to) for a little while.

I sure would like to see some snow before the end of the year. That'd be really nice. Everyone keeps asking me when it's going to snow. I usually just say, "Sometime before April."

What's the record for most consecutive days with measurable precipitation? This summer has been awful. Bring on winter!!!

I'd like to say that I'm surprised, but I most certainly am not.

Bring on spring!

Indeed, I did. I'll get over the most recent disappointment in a couple of days.

I've been seeing 'warm nose' or 'warm tongue' in my dreams. In fact, I am considering changing my name on here to swpawarmnose.

Radar back up.

Need the glowing puck back.

Same teams can't win every single season. You have two of the best players in the league... at some point, they need to step up and make a difference.

1st in the Metropolitan and 1st in the Eastern Conference... people want to fire the coach. Typical Pittsburgh sports attitude. Probably the same people that want Pitt to fire Jamie Dixon.