Mailman

Advisory is up. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-070400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0005.200207T0500Z-200207T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 258 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Rain changing quickly to snow, with a period of heavy snow around the morning commute. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday. Heaviest snow will fall between 4 am and 9am. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Precipitation, mainly falling as rain, will continue through the evening though some transition to snow is already occurring as noted by northeast OH/northwestern PA web-cameras and surface observations. Northwest flow has kept temperatures cooler than anticipated over much of the region, which will in turn allow for the cool down to happen a bit quicker overnight. This could have implications on the changeover to snow. The upper trough will lift and take on a slight negative tilt as it interacts with northern stream energy. With additional support from a coupled jet and strengthening cold advection, there appears to be a window where we could see rather efficient snowfall rates toward morning. Considering the time frame, during the morning commute, and dynamics that are present, think the headlines may be appropriate given potential impacts.

High res NAM is on steroids.

GFS seems to be getting better for late week. Needs some support, however.

Looks like we might be in for a long week of tracking.

Saturday-Sunday.

Different outputs on the 12z Euro. Pivotal shows rain/zr at 126h. WxBell shows the white stuff at 126h. What's it gonna be?

Well.. if there's a model you want to be by itself on a good solution, it's the Euro.

Euro is interesting for next weekend. Certainly an improvement.

12z Euro coming in with the white stuff on Tuesday. Looking like a change-over, though.

I see we got NAM'd for tomorrow.

Euro giving us something to track a week out.

Just a dusting here.

KDKA Winter Forecast, if you're into that sort of thing... https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2019/11/04/meteorologist-ray-petelin-winter-weather-forecast-2019-2020/

Seems as though PivotalWeather is offering Euro maps for nothing. Wonder how long that'll last. I see a lot of below normal temps coming in the next couple weeks. Hope it isn't all for nothing in November.

Mesoscale Discussion 2128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina...northeastern Tennessee...southwestern Virginia...far eastern Kentucky...West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311512Z - 311715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A more substantial increase in potential for severe wind gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes, is expected with a developing line of storms during the 1-3 PM EDT time frame. One or more watches probably will be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Although mid/upper-level lapse rates across much of the region are more or less moist adiabatic, latest objective analysis suggests that boundary layer warming and moistening are contributing to at least weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountains. Mixed-layer CAPE may not become much more than roughly 500 J/kg, but this is expected to occur in the presence of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, as deepening of the surface cyclone (now centered near Columbus OH) proceeds more rapidly through early to mid afternoon. Model forecast soundings indicate south to southwesterly flow intensifying to 50-70+ kt, just off the surface through around 500 mb, as the strengthening surface cold front advances toward the Alleghenies. This is expected to coincide with increasing lift along/ahead of the cold front, aided by forcing for upward vertical motion ahead of a vigorous short wave trough gradually pivoting east of the the Mississippi Valley, to support an intensifying line of thunderstorms. It is possible that this may be gradually underway across parts of northeastern Tennessee through eastern Kentucky and southeastern Ohio, but a more notable increase/intensification seems more likely during the 17-19Z time frame, before gradually spreading eastward into/through the Appalachians. As convection intensifies, downward momentum transport in downdrafts will contribute to increasing potential for damaging convective surface gusts. Large low-level hodographs could also support supercell structures along and perhaps just ahead of the developing line of storms, with a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 259 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 345 PM EDT. * At 259 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mount Lebanon, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... McKeesport... West Mifflin... Baldwin... Upper St. Clair... Scott Township... Whitehall... South Park Township... Munhall... Jefferson Hills... This includes Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 67 and 71, and near mile marker 73. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

Guess it's going to get fairly warm after the remnants of Barry roll through. Personally, I think a bigger deal is being made out of it than need be. But hey.. I like it when people are talking about the weather.

Mesoscale Discussion 1395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2019 Areas affected...Portions of IN...far southern Lower MI...OH...WV...western PA...and far northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061836Z - 062100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Very isolated instances of gusty winds could occur through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A very weak perturbation embedded within mid-level westerly flow has encouraged scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of northern/central IN into northwestern OH along and south of a cold front. With a moderately unstable airmass in place across this region, these storms will be capable of producing gusty winds perhaps up to 35-40 kt, as observed by a wind gust to 36 kt around 17Z at KDFI in northwestern OH. Regardless, no more than 15-25 kt of westerly flow is present from the surface through about 6 km AGL per area VWPs and recent mesoanalysis estimates. This will limit any meaningful bulk shear and potential for greater updraft organization. Still, very isolated instances of strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of producing mainly tree damage cannot be ruled out through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening as storms move generally east-southeastward across portions of the OH Valley into the Appalachians where instability is maximized. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/06/2019

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 415 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brentwood, or near Pittsburgh, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Monroeville... McKeesport... Plum... West Mifflin... North Side Pittsburgh... Baldwin... Wilkinsburg... Whitehall... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Seek shelter indoors and stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.