Mailman

Euro looking sweet seven days out. Warm tongue stays just far enough south for me (for now).

2.5" here.

12z Euro starts things off for next weekend.

Even if things don't work out favorably this weekend, there seems to be something to track for next weekend, as well. Yay!

4-6" on the EPS? I'd take that.

Looks like 3"-ish for all.

Euro looks solid to me.

Might be the best it's looked for the weekend.

FV3 no longer looking great for the weekend.

Finally something to track. FV3 is very tasty.

Looks like we may have some flakes in the air on Wednesday.

Euro still showing a little something for Christmas Day evening. New Years Eve is white on the Euro, as well.

Euro with some Christmas evening snow for the area.

FV3 came in hot for next weekend. We're only 9 days out, of course.

Guess we'll see some white stuff in the air over the next couple of days. Not expected to amount to much, unfortunately.

Been all snow here for the last 20 minutes or so.

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Nothing like an early-season GFS/Euro battle for us.

Any snow in November is a bonus.

Seems to have hit a nursing home in Conneautville.

Nice.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 346 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 241 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2018 MDC023-PAC005-031-051-063-065-129-WVC077-093-220200- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.A.0346.180821T1841Z-180822T0200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND GARRETT IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FAYETTE WESTMORELAND IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARMSTRONG CLARION INDIANA JEFFERSON IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA PRESTON TUCKER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BROOKVILLE, CLARION, CONNELLSVILLE, DAVIS, FORD CITY, GRANTSVILLE, GREENSBURG, INDIANA, KINGWOOD, KITTANNING, LATROBE, MASONTOWN, MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK, MURRYSVILLE, NEW KENSINGTON, OAKLAND MD, PARSONS, PUNXSUTAWNEY, TERRA ALTA, THOMAS, AND UNIONTOWN.

Mesoscale Discussion 1334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018 Areas affected...Parts of western and central PA...WV...and the western MD Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211816Z - 212015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for parts of western and central Pennsylvania into parts of West Virginia and the western Maryland Panhandle. Strong wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threat, though a tornado or two is possible. DISCUSSION...Surface streamline analysis indicated an area of confluence from eastern WV into western PA early this afternoon, which appears to be coincident to the leading edge of greater forcing for ascent spreading east across the discussion area ahead of the approaching upper trough. Breaks in cloudiness this afternoon have allowed for some surface heating within a moist environment contributing to moderate destabilization (MLCAPE of at least 1000 J/kg). 30-40 kt of southwesterly midlevel winds will maintain sufficient effective bulk shear for line segments/bowing structures, with damaging winds the primary severe hazard. However, a tornado threat does exist, especially in locations where surface and low-level winds have a southerly trajectory, enhancing low-level shear/rotation. ..Peters/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

Slight risk for Tuesday, I see. Looks like we finally get a dry day today. Hope we can find a wet pattern in January-February.