Mailman

Mesoscale Discussion 1174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...western West Virginia...Eastern Ohio...and far western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102011Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected to persist into the early evening hours. Damaging winds remains the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Several rounds of storms have moved across most of Ohio and northern Kentucky this afternoon with scattered wind damage reports. A few severe wind gusts have also been reported. Expanding cloud cover and convective overturning has cooled the boundary layer across most of the region and thus instability has decreased. In addition, dewpoints decrease significantly in central Pennsylvania. Therefore, the cooling boundary layer farther west and the lower moisture ahead of the ongoing activity should lead to gradual overall weakening of these storms. However, there are still a few pockets with upper 80s to lower 90s temperatures in eastern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and eastern West Virginia where strong instability will still be present. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms are still expected into the early evening hours. ..Bentley/Kerr.. 07/10/2020

Confirmed EF2 tornado in Beaver County, I see.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 443 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Northern Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Ohio County in northern West Virginia... Southeastern Brooke County in northern West Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 442 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Rochester to Moon Township to 6 miles west of Wolfdale, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Moon Township... McMurray... Greensburg... McKeesport... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 3 and 57. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 26 and 99. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 26 and 81. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 45 and 84.

Mesoscale Discussion 0815 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Areas affected...Northeast OH...Far Western PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249... Valid 041814Z - 041915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249 continues. SUMMARY...Localized area of higher wind-damage potential exists across northeast OH and far western PA. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in forward motion with the line segment moving eastward into northwest OH. Storm motion estimate is currently 40 kt. This increase in organization and strength appears tied to both a downstream increase in instability and interaction with a pre-existing boundary that is moving northward as an effective warm front. Given these trends, a localized area of higher damaging wind gust potential will exist downstream of this line for at least the next hour or so. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2020

Mesoscale Discussion 0798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Areas affected...Southeast OH...North/Northeast WV...Much of PA and MD...Far Northern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031910Z - 032115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible from southeast OH eastward across much of PA and MD as scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat diffuse/outflow-modified cold front extending from south-central NY southwestward across northwest PA and westward through central OH. Temperatures along and south of the front are currently in the upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Filtered diurnal heating has kept temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is combining with relatively warm temperatures aloft to limit stronger instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg. Some stronger northwesterly flow aloft still exists across the region, as sampled by 18Z PIT sounding. As a result, some stronger multicells/bowing line segments are possible, which could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southeast, an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS extends across northwest WV and much of MD. Deepening cumulus has been noted along this boundary, although the air mass has not destabilized like areas north/northwest. Strong heating is also mixing out more of the low-level moisture. Even so, a few isolated storms may develop along this boundary. Any storm that does persist will result in an isolated threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/03/2020

Sorry. I couldn't help myself.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 504 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Greene County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Western Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Ohio County in northern West Virginia... Northeastern Marshall County in northern West Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 504 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Triadelphia, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Waynesburg... California... Masontown... Brownsville... Fredericktown-Millsboro... Fairdale... Jefferson Boro... Isabella... Rogersville... West Brownsville... West Finley... Deemston... This includes Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 6 and 26.

Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Parts of central Indiana and Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67... Valid 282003Z - 282130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 continues. SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity may persist near/north of the Interstate 70 corridor another couple of hours, before diminishing by 6-8 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Frontolysis appears underway, from west to east, along the Interstate 70 corridor, with the primary surface frontal zone redeveloping northward into southern portions of the Great Lakes region through early evening. However, scattered vigorous thunderstorm development persists, probably aided by inflow of unstable boundary layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Given the increasingly widespread nature to the convection, and general stabilization of the surrounding boundary layer due to rain cooling and decreasing insolation, convective intensities seem likely to trend downward through 6-8 PM EDT. However, until then, widely scattered strong storms, perhaps including a small evolving cluster approaching northern portions of the Indianapolis metro area, may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/28/2020

https://keystone-mesonet.org/

4" here.

High res NAM bumped things up a good bit from 18z.

Advisory is up. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-070400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0005.200207T0500Z-200207T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 258 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Rain changing quickly to snow, with a period of heavy snow around the morning commute. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday. Heaviest snow will fall between 4 am and 9am. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Precipitation, mainly falling as rain, will continue through the evening though some transition to snow is already occurring as noted by northeast OH/northwestern PA web-cameras and surface observations. Northwest flow has kept temperatures cooler than anticipated over much of the region, which will in turn allow for the cool down to happen a bit quicker overnight. This could have implications on the changeover to snow. The upper trough will lift and take on a slight negative tilt as it interacts with northern stream energy. With additional support from a coupled jet and strengthening cold advection, there appears to be a window where we could see rather efficient snowfall rates toward morning. Considering the time frame, during the morning commute, and dynamics that are present, think the headlines may be appropriate given potential impacts.

High res NAM is on steroids.

GFS seems to be getting better for late week. Needs some support, however.

Looks like we might be in for a long week of tracking.

Saturday-Sunday.

Different outputs on the 12z Euro. Pivotal shows rain/zr at 126h. WxBell shows the white stuff at 126h. What's it gonna be?

Well.. if there's a model you want to be by itself on a good solution, it's the Euro.

Euro is interesting for next weekend. Certainly an improvement.