Mailman

Seems to be the best Euro run for us since Friday night.

Euro seems to be a little bit of an improvement from 0z.

Canadian has cut our totals in half from 0z.

Not speaking specifically to this sub forum, but feels like there will be a lot of disappointment across the board with this one.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build ewd from MI in the wake of the daytime wave. Modest potential for light lake-enhanced snow showers to the north of I-80 lingers this evening for a few hours before dry air and subsidence erode any remaining CAPE. High pressure will remain dominant through Tue eve as a strong low develops in the Plains. As this Plains low advances ewd toward the Ohio Valley, coastal low pressure will strengthen considerably as an upper-level jet advances ewd. Strong upward motion associated with the left exit region of this jet/possible pairing with a secondary jet's right entrance region will favor high precipitation rates Wed afternoon and early eve, especially across the sern half of the forecast area. While precipitation rates will be high and vertical motion will be strong through the dendritic growth zone, increasing warmth aloft and sfc temperature in the 32-34F range will reduce snow ratios a bit, leading to a heavy, wet snow. The highest totals will occur se of a line from DUJ-CKB, where upward motion will be maximized and terrain will facilitate colder low-level temp. There will be a sharp gradient in higher totals nw from this axis, but snow is expected in all locales at some point on Wed aftn. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Wed/Wed night focused especially on the ridge zones, where highest totals and impactful heavy, wet snow are expected. An advisory likely will be needed adjacent to these zones, which will be highlighted in the HWO.

NAM'd.

PBZ has 2-3" area-wide thru 7:00pm Wednesday.

GFS looking a little bit better compared to previous runs for precip on our side of the state.

Still plenty of time to go. Not sure if I'd wanna be in the bullseye at this point or not.

Apparently, there were a lot of good hits on the Euro ensembles. 15-25% chance of a foot in our area. I'll take that. 50-60% for 6+. Can live with that, too.

Things seem to be looking a bit better for the area, at this time.

Looks like most of the excitement next week will be off to the east.

4" here. So right on the higher end of what was projected for me. I'll take that on December 1st any year.

Approaching a modest 3" here.

Everyone under an advisory now.

PBZ ups totals...

Looks like first accumulating snowfall on Tuesday. I consider anything in November/December as bonus snow for the season.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 434 PM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073>076-WVZ510>514-180015- Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion- Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Westmoreland- Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley 434 PM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING... Brief snow showers into the evening hours may lead to travel disruptions. Visibility reductions to one half mile and wind gusts to 30 MPH are possible in the heavier snow showers. These may also produce a quick coating of snow, especially on bridges and overpasses, and create slick conditions on roads. Motorists are urged to use caution while driving. Lower your speed and increase following distances if you encounter heavy snow.

Mesoscale Discussion 1372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...much of Ohio...much of West Virginia...and far southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011819Z - 011915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Deepening convection will pose a risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two through the afternoon. A WW issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...Convection across eastern Kentucky has gradually deepened and intensified over the past hour, partially in response to lift/ascent associated with a mid-level low over Illinois. These storms are in a moderately buoyant airmass (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE), with deep shear of around 25-35 knots marginally favoring loose organization. Weak low-level flow also favors outflow dominant storms, though some turning/veering with height may support occasional updraft rotation in persistent, cellular convection. An east-to-west oriented warm front located from near DAY to near MRB may also aid in updraft rotation with cells that can favorably interact. The overall scenario suggests potential for occasional wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two with stronger convection. The nature of the threat may become substantial enough to require a WW issuance over the next couple of hours. Convective trends are being monitored. ..Cook/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

Mesoscale Discussion 1242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Areas affected...Northwest OH...Western PA...Northern WV Panhandle...Western NY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378... Valid 161951Z - 162115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two continues. DISCUSSION...Broad surface confluence within the warm sector continues to promote widely scattered thunderstorm development. Temperatures across the region have warmed into the mid 80s in the warm sector, with recent mesoanalysis estimating between 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Enhanced low-level flow stretches across the warm sector, which is also along the southern edge of the strong mid-level westerlies. Consequently, effective bulk shear decreases from around from 40-45 kt around the western PA/NY border vicinity to 30 kt across western OH. These conditions remain supportive of strong to severe storms. Primary severe threat continues to be damaging wind gusts, although a tornado or two also remains possible. ..Mosier.. 07/16/2020

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 527 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Uniontown, and is nearly stationary. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Uniontown... Connellsville... South Connellsville... Fairchance... Dunbar... Vanderbilt... Dawson... Grindstone... New Salem... Chalkhill... Mill Run... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.