Mailman

PBZ warning coordinator said last night on their Facebook live that he expects areas north of the Mason-Dixon to stay all snow. I sure hope so.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 14Z across the area, thE column is saturating as snow begins to reach the ground in many locations with some accumulations being reported in southwest OH counties and WV counties. Latest model trends continue to set up with the highest snowfall rates setting up across southwest PA and the WV mountains by 21Z and persisting int the overnight hours where some 1 inch per hour and possible higher snowfall rates continuing into the overnight hours. Additionally, trends seem to suggest the column remaining saturated enough through 12Z before losing the bulk of the moisture depth in the4 atmosphere, especially in the WV counties. Thus after 12Z, we should begin to see some freezing drizzle set up for a few hours before this transitions over to all drizzle and rain. Temperatures then will warm to just about freezing.

Things are turning a shade of white.

It has begun!

How nice. lol. Hopefully get one of these later.

It wasn't snowing in Morgantown as of 20 minutes ago.

0z GFS:

10:1 is better for me.

Seems to me it is just falling in line with the other guidance finally.

How often do you really get a significant storm for the entire state?

18z GFS:

18z NAM:

The best part is... it's ONLY December.

12z Euro:

Oh man. Euro has the heavy stuff over me at 36h.

I'm going with 7-9" IMBY. Interested to see what PBZ will have.

Totals are up from 6z on the 12z GFS. Gotta figure PBZ will bump things up a bit.

12z RGEM:

12z HRRR:

High Rest NAM:

lol.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level split-flow wave will cross the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a swath of moisture across the Upper Ohio. Associated sfc low pressure will develop across the upper Mississippi Valley before deepening off the Carolinas and riding up the Atlantic coastline. Transient left-exit and coupled jet support are progged to generate broad ascent to support mainly snow beginning Wednesday morning, then ramping up during the afternoon and overnight. Significant uncertainty remains with regards to snow amounts across the forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to support a large range in possible snow totals, primarily due to large differences in QPF amounts and placement of the sfc low to our east. The 00z ECMWF run in particular places the sfc low much farther west and north than previous cycles, though without full EC ensemble and other deterministic agreement, this was not enough reason to significantly inflate our official snow totals at this time. Some question also remains with the extent of warm advection across the lower elevations of WV into SW PA on Wednesday afternoon/ early evening as this could impact initial snow totals. With further penetration of warm air, some potential also exists for brief freezing rain across this area and into the lower ridges. However, the window for this is small, as more substantial warm advection would likely bump marginal sfc temperatures above the freezing mark. Rapid system progression also presents a barrier to high snow totals, as the system quickly shifts off the coast early Thursday morning and shuts off efficient snowfall. Highest snow totals remain over the Allegheny Mountains and ridges, with lesser snow farther west. Confidence in 8+ inches of snow is high enough across the higher elevations to support an upgrade from Watch to Winter Storm Warning in those areas. With increased snow amounts forecast farther west, the Watch was also expanded to include areas including Pittsburgh. Lower confidence exists across the lower elevations of Monongalia and Marion counties where warmer temperatures will likely inhibit initial snowfall totals. Watches and Warnings are in effect from 7AM Wed through 7AM Thu. Advisories will likely be needed for areas farther west, especially if the upward trend continues.

What the Canadian took away at 12z, we got back at 0z. Nice!