Mailman

Still snow here.

Totals came up.

I hear that it's snowing in Seven Springs.

The WTOD signature down here seems to be slowly going away. But... I have to see it in real time not to believe it.

Perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but starting to see some late positive trends.

Quicker transfer at 18z? That's what we want.

GFS cuts back on the mixing from 12z.

US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA tronSposde90mimi9i6ta5uflhlfuf7ama6ggffgmm58l54507301f0tmglc · One thing we are monitoring is a "warm nose" or layer of warmer air that could change snow characteristics or even precipitation-type near or south of Pittsburgh. The first image highlights that uncertainty and how the forecast changes if it advances farther northward than expected. At this time, areas near and south of Morgantown are likely to see warm air create a period of sleet and/or freezing rain during the day Sunday. Even with lower amounts of snow, this mix of snow + ice + sleet can still impact road conditions and result in power outages. There remain scenarios that this warm layer works farther northward. What does that mean? If this does occur (a lower probability to do so), these areas may see slightly lower but still impactful amounts of heavier/wetter snow that is harder to deal with. The second graphic highlights how this event may change with time for a place like Pittsburgh: dry, fluffy snow to start becoming wet/heavy during the day Sunday before transitioning to dry/fluffy Monday morning. This is why simple temperature changes can create more nuance to a forecast that a “storm total snow” may not fully describe. Our office works hard to communicate all these aspects with regional partners so they can best navigate the challenges winter storms create.

Latest map:

.DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A major winter storm is expected to impact the region late this evening through early Monday morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across the area due to the potential for historic snowfall totals ranging from 9 to 15 inches. With cold air firmly in place early this morning into the afternoon-- temperatures in the single digits--confidence is high that precipitation will begin as snow and remain dry, with snow ratios near 18:1 through early Sunday morning. As the system approaches, light to moderate snowfall is expected to develop south of I-70 between 8pm and midnight tonight. Farther north, including areas near and north of Pittsburgh, light to moderate snow will likely begin between midnight and 4am Sunday. As frontogenesis strengthens ahead of a robust low-level jet near daybreak Sunday, with 850mb winds of 60-70kt from the southwest, snowfall rates are expected to increase across portions of the area as snow bands develop. High-resolution guidance shows increasing probabilities of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour snowfall rates with this synoptic feature, persisting into late Sunday night as the surface low tracks into western Pennsylvania. Travel between 10am Sunday to 10pm Sunday will likely be very difficult to impossible across the region. Areas north of I-70 are expected to remain predominantly snow throughout the duration of the storm. However, locations southeast of Pittsburgh, including Preston, Tucker, and Fayette counties, will likely experience a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, resulting in periods of ice accumulation atop existing snow. The combination of heavy snow and ice may lead to power outages and down tree branches in this region.

I know I'll be mixing. I just hope it doesn't last very long.

If anything, you have to admire the consistency.

I'm going with 9-12" down here. I think the big city gets rocked. 12-15".

Snowmap is juiced up.

That wasn't a good start to the 0z suite. ...but it's late in the run HRRR. So, I don't know.

HRRR has rain in Morgantown Sunday evening.

DT always does poorly here, but I'll post anyway.

News stations use it. I know that much.