Mailman

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 230 PM EDT. * At 158 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles southeast of Mount Pleasant, or 10 miles northeast of Connellsville, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Seven Springs around 210 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Normalville, Acme, Jones Mills, Champion, Indian Head, Donegal and Seven Springs.

Mesoscale Discussion 0944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Ohio...southwest Pennsylvania into northern West Virginia and northwest Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131613Z - 131815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe potential is increasing across portions of the Mid Atlantic. Damaging winds are the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if storms continue to intensify and increase in coverage. DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters have recently experienced an uptick along the southwest flank of an ongoing MCS, on the leading edge of the cold pool. The MCS is propagating southward towards 80+ F surface temperatures, with upper 60s to 70 F dewpoints contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Though only 25 kts of effective bulk shear are in place, and mid-level lapse rates are generally under 6 C/km, continued surface heating with the rich moisture in place is expected to support robust storm development into early afternoon, both ahead of the MCS cold pool and along the cold front. Wet downbursts and merging cold pools may support at least a few damaging gusts with the stronger (albeit shorter lived) multicellular clusters. Damaging gust potential may be high enough to warrant the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/13/2021

Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Ohio into West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031847Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of the stronger storms may pose a localized severe risk through the afternoon hours. A damaging gust or two are possible and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually deepened and become more widespread across portions of the Ohio Valley as a mid-level vort max traverses the region. Pockets of insolation have allowed for marginal destabilization of the boundary layer, with around 250-400 J/kg MLCAPE currently realized (per latest Mesoanalysis). 18Z PBZ and RLX VWPs depict considerable veering of the sfc-500 m winds, with modest 0-3km speed shear all contributing to 150-300 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, with 0-1km SRH values occasionally exceeding 200 m2/s2. Nonetheless, upper support is expected to remain modest, with low and mid-level lapse rates likely to remain below 6.5 C/km across most locations. While the favorable shear environment would support a damaging gust or a brief tornado with a stronger storm, the marginal instability is expected to limit the severe threat. Given the very sparse and brief nature of any severe threat that can materialize, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/03/2021

Hopefully a lot of 90 degree days in the summer.

Only a few flurries here this evening. Cancelled my Pivotal Weather sub today. Bring on the 60's and 70's!

Starting to come down nicely here.

DT:

GFS holds serve for late week.

I went out and didn't fall. So...

18z GFS all snow for Thursday-Friday!

30 and rain here.

Mesoscale Discussion 0091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...northeastern Kentucky...southern/eastern Ohio...western/central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151944Z - 160145Z SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand from southwest to northeast across the discussion area. 0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3-hour accumulations of freezing rain are expected. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery continues to indicate an expanding precipitation shield across the majority of the state of Kentucky atop a shallow, sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation continues to outpace northeastward-movement of most model guidance outside of certain CAMS (Nam3, HRRR). These CAMS indicate continued northeastward progression of icing (freezing rain and some sleet) into Ohio/northern West Virginia over the next hour or so and southwestern Pennsylvania after around 22Z or so. Upstream observations have indicated localized precipitation rates ranging as high as 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour in heavier bands/convective elements, and the expectation is that this will continue with northeastward extent across the discussion area over the next 6 hours. At least 3-6 hours of icing is expected areawide. Additionally, a few areas of sleet (or even snow) are expected to mix in with freezing rain - especially across the northern extent of the discussion area where deeper cold air is present. ..Cook.. 02/15/2021

Euro is good for late week.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A prolonged period of wintry impacts is expected Monday into Tuesday as a series of shortwaves within southwest flow move across the Upper Ohio River Valley. The first, weaker wave will see spread mainly snow over the area Monday morning, with precipitation enhancements north and west of Pittsburgh due to a strengthening upper jet and strong frontogenesis stretching from SW to NE OH. Slight warm advection will create more of a wintry mix generally southeast of Pittsburgh. After a very brief break late Monday aftn due to shortwave ridging, the second and more potent shortwave will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Model trends have brought the upper trough and 850mb low farther west, allowing for better warm air intrusion to the southeast of the low. If this holds, snow will be the predominant precipitation type along the I-80 corridor and east of I-77, transitioning to a combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain along the I-70 corridor (including Pittsburgh) and sleet/freezing rain/rain for northeast WV. Any shift in the 850mb low track west (east) will draw that change over line farther northwest (southeast). The combination of a strong, coupled jet, strong mid-level frontogenesis, and varying but cold enough thermal profiles, have issued a Winter Storm Warning. The warm air intrusion will likely limit snow/ice accumulation for portions of northeast WV, thus a Winter Weather Advisory was issued. Precipitation will generally dissipate through the day Tuesday as the low and sfc cold front move east of the region and a notable dry slot develops within the wake of the exiting shortwave. Cold advection will ensue as the longwave trough axis moves overnight Tuesday night, dropping area temperature well below seasonal averages.

Yeah.. I deleted it. Don't know why it won't show the correct one when you paste a direct link to the graphic.

Don't shoot the messenger.

Ron Smiley'd...

Freezing Fog is no joke.

18z HRRR looks good after wave 1.

Oh boy.