Mailman

Guh.

Just wanted to say it's been fun tracking this thing with everyone the last several days. Hope everyone gets to cash in. Also... glad no one on here had a meltdown at any point. I remember we had one poster on here a few years ago. He(?) was wound up good and proper.

NAM seems to have lessened the warm tongue. Some good news to start my day.

No mix on the GFS.

Good ol' DT.

Did not see this posted.

The northward trend has continued to some degree in the latest guidance suite. We still foresee northern Plains and southern Rockies mid-level shortwaves to phase as they cross into the Middle Ohio Valley. As they do so, a surface low develops near the Gulf coast and tracks northeastward. There is still some variance with the track of this low. The northern trend is starting to increase the chance of some mixed precipitation to the southeast of Pittsburgh, and a slight chance of freezing rain has been introduced to the gridded forecast. The chances of this are not high enough to meaningfully change the overall snow totals or the messaging to a significant degree, but it is a trend that we will need to monitor as the event approaches. In any event, support for overall lift remains quite good given a coupled 250mb jet structure, layered frontogenesis, and an inverted surface trough. A moisture surge including precipitable water totals of around 0.7 inch (90th percentile for late January) and a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone will also support significant snowfall totals.

Even on the snowmaps, you can see the WTOD creeping a little bit north each run of the Euro. Hopefully it gets stuck in Morgantown.

That map tells me that PBZ must be REAL confident in the lack of a mix anywhere. I hope they're right.

Outlier.

Euro keeps the mixing in Fairmont. Niiiiiice.

UK eventually mixes after you get 8-9".

Mixing on CMC at 0z is not as pronounced as it was on 12z. Guess I'd call that an improvement.

GFS looking ideal thru 93h.

Yep + QPF is up.

AIGFS seems to have delivered, also.

ICON is solid, if you're into that model.

Definitely a good sign when PBZ is discussing contingency plans.

Honestly, I'd have been more concerned if it showed primary going up 79.