cbmclean

Got 0.81 early this morning but have been dodging cells since then. Really would like to pick up a 2" for the event try to keep the lawn/garden limping through the semi-permanent heat wave it seems we're going to be in during this summer.

The line is still stuck in almost the same place!!

I understand your point, the thing is, I suspect that many of us are on here because of an abiding interest in weather statistics, so when we see an anomaly we are interested. Like many of us here, I have lived in NC all of my life, growing up near Fayetteville. KFAY had traditionally been warmer than KRDU. Now though, KRDU regularly outdoes KFAY, especially on hot days. Last Friday on the day when I made my comments, KRDU beat KFAY by 5 degrees. So yeah, I admit I am skeptical. It's actually a fascinating issue because UHI affects traditionally have a larger impact in elevating night temperatures compared to day temps, so why the "RDU bonus" seems larger during the day is surprising. By the way, I lurk in the Mid-Atlantic forum a lot and they regularly had discussion about how unrepresentative the snow totals are from the DC airports because of microclimate. This past winter in their discussions someone made the point that the main purpose of airport weather observations is to give the pilots and airport officials weather data pertinent to their operations. They are NOT motivated by a love of meteorological statistics. Lastly, the "RDU bonus" is something I can remember being noticed for some time now. I can remember Greg Fishel making a snide remark about it while he was still at WRAL. But it does seem to have become more obvious in recent years anecdotally.

I don't question the extreme nature of today's heat, but I have lost confidence in RDUs measurement integrity. Similar numbers observed in the area? ETA: Just saw that RDU recorded 106 today while KFAY was at 101. I call shenanigans. ETA2: Just saw this on the NWS facebook page for RDU: BREAKING: All-time record high/daily record high set at Raleigh & the daily record high set at Fayetteville. The high at Raleigh was 106 degrees which breaks the all-time record high of 105 degrees and also sets a new daily high record. The high at Fayetteville was 101°F which ties the old record high. A technician was on-site at the RDU ASOS platform at the time of the record and corroborated the accuracy of the sensor temperature with a handheld calibration device. In addition, the contract weather observer checked the temperature during the afternoon and using two other different devices they noted similar readings at around the time the record was set.

No July Obs thread yet, so I'll say it here: it's delightful out there. Too bad it's just a brief respite.

Man I hate that for you. We finally got the good stuff come in over night here in Wilson. I was hoping you got in on the joy

Sunday was disappointing but Monday morning rocked! Got 2.46" this morning.

Well, I did get 0.04" for the day. 1.42 for the month.

A very disappointing Sunday. Potent, slow-moving cells around, everything slightly off course.

Got .06 overnight, first rain in nearly 3 weeks. More could be on the way today, but the overcast seems to be keeping it too stable. The radar to the west showing mostly drizzle and light rain. We all need steady downpours.

Ah Shetley, haven't seen him around in a while. Hopefully he finally got some rain. The western half of NC has definitely been moister the last 3 months. That said I had a decent 0.81" yesterday up to 1.26" for the week (and month).

A delicious 1.99" yesterday; wish we could have squeezed out 0.01 more! 3.75" for the month. Grass is nice and green.

I'd like to understand what the y-axis represents. It is labeled percentage, but percentage of what? What does 100% mean vs 0%? I know you didn't make the graphic. Maybe @Ji has some more data from wherever he got this from?

I don't think anyone has been touting the PDO flip as a magic elixir, at least not in any of the serious posts I have been seeing. The general theory (and hope) is that some of the suck we have been seeing in the last ~8 years is due to a prolonged period of very negative PDO and that when that relaxes we may see some improvement. I don't think many are expecting it to go back to "normal". It just MAY not suck so bad. @psuhoffman has been the person I have talk most about this topic and he has made it VERY clear that he believes that at at best a +PDO will only mitigate the suck and that there are non-cyclical factors leading to an ever-worsening base state, which is my own belief as well. What impact, if any will a +PDO have? TBD.

Good point.

I am hopeful that some of the gulf warmth is due to the eternal SER associated with our --------PDO episode. IF (big IF) that backs off in a +PDO hopefully the gulf warmth can back off some.

A fascinating graphic: some musings: 1. The east has clearly been hit harder than the west. This actually gives me a bit of hope. Yeah there is nasty background warming but perhaps there really is a multidecade cycle that happens to be "favoring" eastern NA for warmth. 2. On the other hand, the eastern CONUS is on average lower in elevation than the west which suggests that it is less able to rely on elevation for cold and is this more dependent on cold air advection from the source regions. So it makes sense that combined trends of warmer source region and increased pacific influence are hurting the east worse. 3. Man 1998-2000 looks like it was an ugly period.

A good time for snow chances to raise from the dead! Ba-dup-chuh. I'll be here all week everbody. Don't forget to tip your wait staff.

Yeah, but what do the temps show? Looks mean nothing without temps.

She sang last month and went back to bed.

Yes, but that appears to pertain more to thicknesses as opposed to heights. I know that thicknesses are closely related to virtual temperature, and I know that thicknesses are related to heights. But if you look at maps of gph anomalies vs temp anomalies, you can tell they are related but never identical. What I would like to understand is why they are different.

I understand it is a big ask but I appreciate the attempt. One thing I have noticed is that for many topics, for example Calculus, differential equations, planetary science etc., there is a large amount of material available for those who are beyond the basics but who aren't ready for the 4 year degree level. For synoptic meteorology, not so much. Most of the stuff I can find is the basic stuff. I learn a lot lurking here.

I wanted to say something meaningful about this but realized i could not because I have very little understanding of what actually causes ridges or troughs. If someone asked you to explain the mechanism(s) by which synoptic-scale variations in geopotential height arise and move around, how would you do it in a paragraph? I know that thicknesses are highly correlated to average temperature in a column of air, but is it just that simple for heights: cold air = low heights and warm air = high heights? Assume your listener has a strong background in basic physics but very little detailed knowledge of fluid dynamics.

You grunted it?

Better get the knee in shape!!