cbmclean

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I found the front cover for my book

 

"SERs I Have Known And Loved"?

Just now, cbmclean said:

After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative.  In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter.  So he's been objectively correct.

Edit: At least so far.  I hope he faceplants hard in February but I still give it a better than even chance of the SSW effects going somewhere else and leaving us toast with our old friend the SER.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not.

After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative.  In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter.  So he's been objectively correct.

Chuck already showed it above but just to emphasize, do not look at the 18Z GFS if you value your sanity.  Just don't.  It goes all in on the "dig a trough to Baja" idea.  540 line over the northern Sea of California.  Let us never speak of it again. 

47 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

it is genuinely borderline hilarious how even one quasi-good run from one model this winter is immediately followed by a run that is not just bad but borderline end of days bad by the very next model to go...

Was thinking same thing.  Almost like all the modeling agencies got together to figure how to best prolong the weenie torture.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS AFTER that period rotates a lobe of the PV into a favorable spot in SE Canada. And yea it’s an op at range but the eps agrees and we’ve seen this exact progression happen numerous times and no one is talking about it or if they do it’s only to say “but the pna is awful”. Ya but WHY?  Why does the pna continuously do that even when other longwave features are aligned in a way to argue against that!  I think there’s more going on than these “but the pac” or “but the pna” comments account for. I think there is more than ample proof there is another additional cause here. And I’m totally ok with the possibility it has nothing to do with warming. Maybe it’s something else. But I’m not ok with just blowing it off with “but the pac”. It’s more than that.  

First obvious thought would be the SER is on steroids due to the bath water in the gulf, and just off the east coast.  Seems like you had mentioned that yourself earlier as a possibility.  Is there some reason why you doubt that hypothesis?    

Not making this up, I dreamed of snow last night.  Even in my dreams it was marginal mess.  

We gotta stop letting it get our hopes up like this.

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just one question: Who the frickle is Cassandra?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This has been our mean h5 for the whole winter. 

That’s not awesome but it’s certainly not a mean that would strike fear into us.  That historically would just be average imo.
 

 

 

I continue to be fascinated by the lack of a strong SE ridge in that composite.  Goes to show that composites do not show the whole story.  The SER has always been there when it mattered.

@psuhoffman So we here (at least most of us) know what "it" is that is the ultimate villain behind the scenes.  What has worked for you guys before just isn't working now and you are heading towards my climatology (let's not talk about where mine is headed ).  

The only meaningful question that I think we can consider here is: to what extent, if any, is the current absolute record-setting crap stretch also due to a natural down cycle that happens to be compound the background warming?  Put another way, what reasons if any, do you feel we have for optimism that we see less-bad times in the near future?  

I can only think of one major argument which is what appears to be the relative suddenness of the collapse into the complete fail stretch pattern.  We went from "loosing around the margins" to the pit of despair in like a 5 year span, which could be interpreted to fit the pattern of natural variation instead of the gradual decline we were used to.  However, the counterpoint to that that Climate Cassandras for years now have been warning about sudden non-linear tipping points.  Maybe we just passed one?  Maybe the 2016 mega Nino was the harbinger of the new regime? 

If you have any other possibilities, I'm interested to hear them.  If not, then I'd like to face our future with dignity, shitting the blinds as I go.    

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2019 and 2021 still bother me a lot.  2017 and 2018 were about what they should have been given the pattern. 2020 was rightfully a dreg year.  Would have been dreg in any era with that bad pac and +++A0/NAO. 
 

But 2019 there was no reason with the pac ridge constantly centered into western Canada and a decent AO that the pna kept going so negative and the SE ridge/WAR kept popping.  That wasn’t right. The wavelength should have worked out for us but the SE ridge kept going ape. That’s when I first started feeling like the problem wasn’t really the pac. That was a Nino. The pac pattern was ok. But the SE ridge kept bullying the pattern and forcing trough into the SW even with a ridge poking over into west Canada. 
 

Same in 2021. Despite crazy blocking and imo a mediocre but not awful pac the same kept happening. 
 

now I saw some of those same trends in December especially this year!
 

Everyone is waiting for the good years to come again but one reason Im so negative is imo the reason we’re in an unprecedented long bad run is that those should have been the good years but whatever is causing the SE ridge won over an otherwise pretty favorable pattern.  
 

Sorry if none of that makes sense. I’ve had a few whiskeys. Cheers. 

Your weather memory is better than mine but for 2019 I have a distinct memory of the MJO going ape in the warm phases.  That enhanced MC convection drives a SE ridge right?  Now I'm not trying to make an "excuse" because the strengthened Pacific warm pool is one of the mechanisms that has been mentioned for how we have been losing the margins.  

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

384 hours out on an op run. It's close enough!

Yes, apparently it is meteorologically possible to snow south of 40n with a look like this... 

 

-EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO, in a Nina.

Is that a -EPO?

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The Roger Smith jawn

Had to look up jawn.

Who the neck is Ava?

Long range GEFS and GEPS have the NPJ rather muted.  In fact it retracts too far on the GFS, which is consistent with the general east coat ridging as depicted on that model's ensemble mean. 

Also the SPV continues to look as if it will be somewhat abused in the long-term.

21 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

The only difference between this place and my hometown is that Lewes hit 62.7 F today 

Dang that's stout even for them.  -80.86 F

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What can ya do with above average temperatures we've had this month up to this point, though? If we had a situation like this 30 years ago with above average temps through mid-January two weeks before this system...would it somehow turn out differently then vs now? Or are you saying that starting off a January this way wouldn't have happened 30 years ago? Lol (that argument actually makes more sense)

You're starting down that path again.  This is a perfectly valid topic of discussion but lets do it in the appropriate thread as has been requested.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah we were just starting to get better vibes in here again, lol Let's please just focus on the now as much as we can.

Don't you know they control the models to periodically show false positive outputs?  The positive vibes are just the weather-industrial complex stringing us along only to better crush our hopes and enjoy the sweet taste of weenie tears.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.

 

Can someone explain the avocado?  I missed that day in class.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another question...(this may be more for @WxWatcher007: Do tropical/extra-tropical storms cool down SSTs once they pass through?

Tropical storms definitely do.  Not sure about ET.  

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...but ain't January usually cold? I mean the last few nina Januarys have been, anyway.

They can go either way...there is no rule. If dec and Jan were always cold...we would be cheering for a Nina every year

Well even when cold the tendency for a trough west/ridge east makes Ninas especially prone to cold dry/warm wet syndrome.  

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

December was cold, at least relatively.

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18z GEFS.  Interesting to see about half the members keep it cold beyond February 1.

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384?  That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly.  

We all know p28 will verify

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

2019 was a grave disappointment.

That was a overatted weak nino right?

Well, we all had high hopes, so I guess in that sense it was over-rated.  That was the year I learned to hate the MJO.