cbmclean
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Posts posted by cbmclean
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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Maybe it is noise but the effect of the warmer waters isn’t. So even if there is no cyclical cause and it’s just random it still matters to our sensible weather.
Certainly, my point was if it isn't an oscillation we have no reason to expect it to "change states" at some future point.
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Was curious about how the PDO might interact with the AMO, so reading about the AMO on Wikipedia yesterday. Apparently there is no consensus that it even exists. Some think it's just noise.
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1 minute ago, TSG said:
It wasn't always that way. It's certainly a lot different in here now than when I joined in 2014. There's a lot of good posters that have abandoned the forum because of the constant garbage
I have actually been hearing internet forums are dying all over. Note sure why. Maybe we should set up a group Twitter feed.
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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
its gonna snow on January 27-28 and you will deal with it
Canadian cold bias.
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SPV doing some interesting contortions on the GFS suite in the long range. No signs of collapse yet to my eyes.
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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
What if…we get a 2003/2010 type Nino and DC gets 8” next year. Then do I have permission to start sacrificing people who try to say “but it’s this or it’s that”? Lol
As long as the sacrifice does not cause additional CO2 emissions.
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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:
What the frickle happened? Lol
Northeast snow weenies were wish-casting and apparently got angry when he called them on it. But since then he has been going out of his way to revel in their misery. not a classy move in my opinion.
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23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade. There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming. I have lived through three of them so far. Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades. Toughen up people, or move further north.
2020's will be negative. That's right, they will SUBTRACT snow from previous decades.
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1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said:
Even La Nadas (2001-2, 2019-20) don't give us snow.
No patterns yield snow now We track arctic fronts.
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2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:
Don't think you've won. He'll be Bach.
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Can't post pics at work, but look at 00z GEPS at 318 hrs. Looks like decent 500 MB presentation But temp anomalies are disappointing.
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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:
CA is getting nino’ed…it’s Thunderdome!
Two subs enter, one sub leaves.
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2 minutes ago, Interstate said:
Until they all move to the GFS. Remember, whatever model gives you the least amount of snow, it is usually right.
Was just going to post, that, but you saved me the trouble.
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12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
I know we have all given up on late week But….WB 18Z EPS is a shift…with a few hits. last picture 12Z.
I personally think P32 looks extra realistic.
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Just now, Wxdavis5784 said:
I was living in Hickory, NC at the time and remember a very nice storm that dropped around a foot sometime in Jan/Feb, plus we had several nice ice storms.
That was probably the same January 2-3 even I mentioned that did well at RDU. I had almost completely forgotten about that storm and my memories of 2001 -2002 were negative based on the overall warmth.
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Just now, psuhoffman said:
I was mostly at Greenville but spent a week at Asheville and a week at Boone.
As you can see from my profile I live in Wilson which is just 45 minutes or so west of Greeneville. Our snow climatology could best be described as: "We see flakes 2 out of 3 years, and that ain't bad!". Oddly enough I haven't been fully shut-out (no flakes at all) since I have been here. Closet I came was in 2011-12 but I did see a few sleet pellets' that year. I'm afraid this year might be the year.
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Well actually you are correct in that sense. RDU got a big snow on Jan 2 - 3. But that was all she wrote that winter. It was super warm otherwise. Here is a map from Eric Webber's historical website.
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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
It was Nov to mid Feb 2007 which was fine because I got like 3” there and that was more than up here then I was back for the snow we got in Feb and March that year.
Where did you live?
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29 minutes ago, Fozz said:
I hope it wasn't 2002-03 (though I think even they got a legit storm in mid January 03).
Actually 2002 - 2003 was really "good" by NC standards, at least where I was in the Triad. Several minor events and persistent cold. One of my favorites. 2001 - 2002 was awful on the other hand.
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Well, @psuhoffman, at least you have the Eagles this year. Seems like they are finally over that nasty Super Bowl hangover.
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20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
If I’m not mistaken both the eps and gefs had tremendous looks for next weekends storm. So …
I'm not sure they could be called tremendous. The airmass was always horrible. But both models "saw" that if everything went exactly right in the best possible way, a nice storm could result.
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49 minutes ago, Cobalt said:
Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month.
Wouldn't it be ironic if we had two cold, dry -EPO periods sandwiched around the January Pack Puke warm/moist period. Good thing for me I also enjoy cold dry weather.
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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
^^this thread
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Checking in the long range, at 10 MB, both the GEFS and the GEPS have the SPV somewhat stretched and off to the side with significant warmth over Siberia. Hopefully is a sign that it is not well coupled to the TPV.
The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
2019 was a grave disappointment.