cbmclean

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

And for Hoffman, colder anomalies building in lol



.

Still don't like the warm anomalies from coast to coast in Canada.  They should be cooling down first right?  It's certainly better than current conditions though.

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

We're already in an -EAMT that's retracting the jet

Just saw a tweet from Eric Webber about that.  Hopefully it leads to improvements.

Ok.  So as of today the pattern could improve ~Jan 20th, with probably at least a week to recover temperatures after that.  So by ~ Jan 27th there could be hope.  All we can do is take it 1 day at a time.

5 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Eyyy! Look who I passed today!

@WxWatcher007 heading south to take on part-time contract work to handle the dangerous overload of weenies heading to the cliffs.  It's a public service.

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great

but…

Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms.  

 

Honest question.  Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss?  The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time.

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though

First step of getting out of a hole is: stop digging.  I'll be happy if the mild pacific air actually cuts off and then I'll worry about the recovery time.

The SPV looking somewhat stretched in the long range on the 18z GEFS.  Doesn't necessarily imply anything good in the troposphere but I like seeing it better than a big blue consolidated bowling ball.  Note the warm anomaly growing in Siberia.

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This year just perfect track rainstorms. 

Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter?  I thought this was the first.  Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster.

At 240 hrs

Talking the NPJ, looks somewhat less strong in the long range on the GFS.  Is that potentially a good thing?

Here are pictures from the 12Z GEFS

0 hrs

So... Was Viceroy right all along?

Well now I want to understand the Pacific jet.

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

what’s the answer? 

Hoping their wrong?

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

You could look at the 250 mb map and see where the strongest jet streams are. 

Yes I can see the jetstream at 250 MB, but I am trying to understand what features (at the surface or at 500 MB) make it strong or weak and make it point this way or that way. 

I have been hanging around here for years and have learned a lot.  But for the life of me I cannot look at a height field and visually tell what the temperatures anomalies are going to look like.

My understanding is that the current NA torch is due to a strong flow of Pacific air.  In NH plot below is there a feature or features which I could look at at and instantly say: Paciifc Fire hose?

If anyone wants to pull out the John Madden telestrator and diagram a few things that would be even better.

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good to know. I didn’t even know that there was a potential event yesterday though. 

He's up on Connecticut, reaping NE weenies.

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nope. But I would sure as S like to be in phase 8/1 in January than 4/5. 4/5 is pretty much a death nail. 

I've been complaining about it being impossible for it to go into phase 1 .  It'll be ironic it if does it in the middle of a torch.  At least it's not making it worse. 

So where are we at with the PAC Jet?  Is it too extended or too retracted right now.

Sorry, I thought this was sort of a panic space.

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I wouldn’t live a pre industrial life but we’ve known about the climate issue since the 1920s, we’ve had opportunities to switch to more renewable energy sources in the 80s, we wouldn’t need to live a pre industrial life to save the climate but instead recognize that exponential economic growth isn’t a good thing. 

But exponential economic (and its intertwined scientific growth) is the ONLY reason you and I are currently sitting in heated houses typing on computers right this second.  In fact you and I might not be alive at all right now otherwise because the carrying capacity of the planet would be much less. 

I despise warm winters to the very core of my being.   I am not a shill for big coal or even remotely a climate denier.  AGW could possibly lead to enormous human suffering down the road.  But the fact is that to this point the ledger is heavily weighted to the positive in terms of cost/benefit, at least in MATERIAL terms.  (It's much murkier when you consider mental, spiritual and aesthetic factors).

Renewables are definitely the way of the future BUT they are not easy as you can see in Europe right now.  It is quite fortunate for them tat their winter has been so mild given the currewnt situation.  It will take decades of hard work to realize, and TBH we have to realize that it might not be possible without a drastic reduction in living standards.

I guess my overall point is: don't consider yourself an innocent who has been sinned against by stupid greedy ancestors.  If that isn't really your attitude I apologize for the assumption but I hear that attitude a lot and it irks me.

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

This new mutation came a the "perfect" time to make itself known. With American family gatherings from Thanksgiving through the New Year, it was ideal for it to rip through the country. Of course it's hitting other places around the world, as well, but as for the MBY experience, this was just the perfect storm.

Hope all of you who have any respiratory issues feel better soon!

Omicron did the exact same thing last year.  We're just going to have to live with it going forward.  Take the appropriate precautions for yourself but also have some thought for the immunocompromised among us.  But life must go on.

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I guess growing up without semi normal snowfall is just another thing my generation gets to pay for others kicking doing anything about climate change down the road. 

Would you take a pre-industrial climate if you had to live a pre-industrial life?  Heck would you want a 1950's climate if you only had access to 1950 technology?  The environmental degradation caused by the industrial revolution is probably the cause of our current snow woes.  Fair enough  Would you trade it back?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW one thing we should clear up...there is still a 50/50 low on the guidance.  Its there...as the system we are watching is in the MS valley getting its act together there is a low over the 50/50 area just like we want...its just not the sub 500 monster polar vortex of doom some guidance was showing before from a convoluted polar jet phase phase with a mid lat system leading to a bomb cyclone.  We shouldn't need all that.  

It seems we do need that now.

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The AO is negative now, and forecast to trend towards neutral by mid month. That isn't the issue.

Thanks.  I didn't look at the index before I posted.  That said I have seen info recently about the PV being anomalously strong.  I had though "strong PV" was essentially synonymous "+AO". 

I really enjoy reading your analysis and it helps me learn so much.  Would you have any interest in a brief write-up on the overall NH pattern as it currently is?  I'd like to understand the nature of our current fail pattern.  And by fail I don't mean not getting snow for this or that individual short wave, I mean "no cold air south of Ellesmere island".

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t see much blue anywhere over any mid latitude land masses. 

So did we transition from Pac puke fail to ++++++AO fail?  I missed the memo.