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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    This is another utter trash what can go wrong will “winter”. We accept it and move on. At least today turned out nice and temp around 50.
  2. jm1220
    Gee whiz. Models went too suppressed at day 4-5 with another storm? No strong confluence=another NYC washout.
  3. jm1220
    Hence why it’s way too early to spike any footballs on this one. If anyone’s looking “golden” right now it’s probably the I-84 corridor which all the probability maps show (I’d look at those maps way before any 10-1 snow map).
  4. jm1220
    If it snows heavily it will crash down to 32-33, I’ve never seen heavy snow before with 35-36. It’s really a question of the storm track along with intensity. If it’s sheared out like GGEM/UKMET very few will be happy anywhere. The ensemble members with lower resolution would probably show a less intense system in general. But they’re good in terms of showing overall trends and probabilities.
  5. jm1220
    If it can snow heavily it will definitely stick. Midtown might be tough as it always is but a little distance away should be fine. But we’d be in much better shape if we weren’t going into it with 50s temps to deal with. The storm will have to be dynamic to bring cold air down with good rates. The SNE crew is excited for this for good reason, since the almost universal trend for these stronger southern branch storms is north at the end and it could very easily end up congrats I-90. I just don’t want people to set up for disappointment. In 2 days if we’re still staring at a good hit I’ll be thrilled to change my mind.
  6. jm1220
    It can definitely still happen but people should keep their expectations low near the city and ignore the 10-1 clown maps given we have such a lousy preceding airmass. Some will be wasted trying to get the snow to accumulate. And that’s not factoring in the usual late trends north with these kind of systems. If the confluence weakens it’s off to the races back north. I want this to happen for sure but also want to factor in the likelihood the rug gets pulled.
  7. jm1220
    Happened last 2/28. The south shore had white rain, I had 5” because it was 2-3 degrees colder where I live. The airmass coming into this is quite marginal, that shouldn’t be forgotten either. Maybe this will work out for all of us, who knows, but there are definitely obstacles to be overcome. The odds are still better north of the city. We want it to track a good 100 miles south of the city and for it to be quick developing-not sheared crap like the GGEM so dynamically it can get cold enough.
  8. jm1220
    I wouldn’t be excited at all until we’re under 72 hours with this. Countless times we’ve seen a late north bump especially with these southern stream lows. If the confluence isn’t really there to press this south this will be a lousy outcome for 80% of us or more.
  9. jm1220
    Way too soon to throw that towel in. If the confluence isn't as strong as modeled this will go back north in a hurry.
  10. jm1220
    If the confluence weakens as we get closer in and/or the storm gets more amped yes it certainly will go back north. It’s incredibly thread the needle here. We need a dynamic storm which will try to trend north to overcome the crap initial airmass, enough confluence to keep it from cutting but not too much to suppress it, and a somewhat cooperative long wave pattern to help it track in a favorable way. It’s not the classic setup by any means for us to get a significant snowstorm around the city. What comes in 10 days or so should be more favorable.
  11. jm1220
    Difficult to really say. The Pacific is very hostile in general to producing snowy and cold conditions in the East the last few winters because of the -PDO and warming equatorial W PAC. The Plains and West are favored now and have seen record cold. With the Pacific this hostile, any year would be lousy here. But the background warming will make any lousy year worse-ie we struggle to 10” vs it could’ve produced 15-20” or more in a winter. A few decades or more ago the marginal conditions might’ve accumulated snow and we would’ve been OK for a few minor events that add up.
  12. jm1220
    CMC is a lot weaker with the low and with the mild prior airmass, looks like a lot of white rain or just rain. We’d need a dynamic setup like the GFS to really snow and accumulate unless you’re inland and probably elevated.
  13. jm1220
    If the confluence is real and we can develop the low quickly as it goes to our south it should snow. Question would be how much is wasted on the front end due to the marginal airmass or otherwise if we struggle to get to 32. But I wouldn’t jump on any snowy solution unless other models jump on board and we hold that solution for at least 24 hours. We’ve seen time and again these lows especially southern stream trend north at the end and confluence weaken.
  14. jm1220
    Every other model is north of the GFS. It might be in its overly suppressed mode 5 days out which sometimes results in it being shown well OTS but this time it means major hit for us. Very high likelihood it corrects back north later today or tomorrow. I don’t see really anything to keep it from favoring New England, and probably NNE at that.
  15. jm1220
    25 here.
  16. jm1220
    That’s likely one thing to be bullish about here given the warmer Atlantic and north extensions of the Bermuda High that will likely guide future storms right up the coast. We can always count on our deluges.
  17. jm1220
    Definitely as much a top ten day as you can get in February. Might as well enjoy that vs get depressed about another trash winter.
  18. jm1220
    Yup, otherwise unless you’re north of I-84 it’s another washout. Marginal at best airmass going in, SE ridge/no blocking/West ridge axis too far west will likely mean either it tracks too far north and/or a late bloomer. Our opportunity further south comes later if this pattern change really happens.
  19. jm1220
    I drove from Long Beach where there was about 12”, east on Sunrise Highway then north on 231. Snow definitely increased around Wantagh then was highest around Deer Park/Babylon, then decreased again in Dix Hills to my house where there was about 14”. That band in SE Nassau and Suffolk was the difference maker. For hours Long Beach sucked on subsidence and light snow/blowing snow while that band crushed. Further east in Islip benefitted from being closer to the low.
  20. jm1220
    My house had about 14”. The dividing line between wild like you had and very good but not wild was around Dix Hills. There was definitely an accum decrease around there going north from Babylon on 231. Your area must have had over 20”. That sound enhanced area just crushed places from Wantagh to east of Islip for hours.
  21. jm1220
    I had 5” last 2/28 which was white rain in parts of the city and south shore. Was a very nice scene but was gone in 24 hours mostly. Besides that pretty much nada since that Jan 2022 storm.
  22. jm1220
    2011-22 had a few suppressed storms and the big Jan 2022 blizzard hammered the NJ coast. Tom’s River got 20” and Central Park 8.7”. Islip got 24”.
  23. jm1220
    Other than occasional stretches where this “winter” acts like an El Niño, we still have long Nina stretches like in Jan with the big Plains/Mountain West cold snap and now which should be our best stretch in a Nino but we’re dealing with 2 more weeks of Pacific garbage. When we have an actual Nina or neutral ENSO the WPAC warming amplifies the Nina pattern like crazy and mutes even a strong Nino. This winter has been much like another Nina with a stronger Nino STJ. The N PAC is another disaster for us because we’re stuck in a long term -PDO. Until these factors change we’re likely destined for more winters like this. The cold air is definitely still around-records are challenged all the time in the Plains/West in these big cold snaps but it just never gets favored to come east in a lasting way or without being massively modified. Our bonanza snow period from 2000-18 had a lot of help from the Pacific and now that it’s turned, the pendulum is swinging away. If it’s completely hostile to big Eastern winters there’s little that can counter it. We see how even big -NAO blocks can just recycle around more crap Pacific air masses.
  24. jm1220
    Or just to get NYC over 10” which is about 35-40% of average. When you need a big shakeup just to get there you see how pathetic things are.
  25. jm1220
    What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it.
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