jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Some branches down in my neighborhood. Winds were legit.
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There's almost always a dry season this time of year on the extreme south shore.
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A few drops here just now but looks like it’s all we get. South Jersey Alley lit up again.
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Gusting to 32mph now at JFK.
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Yup, models underestimated the heat just away from the shore. Flow is also more westerly now. Hopefully we get a storm or two for the lawns because they’re starting to scorch. We have the worst of both worlds on the N Shore in the heat-we get the humidity plus the high temps. Around Sunrise Highway is where the difference really started today, but once the SSTs get into the 70s the barrier islands will roast too and these S winds drive them up.
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95/71/103 at home on the North Shore, 75 here in Long Beach. Different universe.
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Even in Long Beach it feels pretty hot today. Not nearly as hot as at home but still gross.
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Yep. It's another world on the barrier islands.
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Only 73 in Long Beach. Wonder if it even makes it to 80 this week on the barrier islands?
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There should be some other site like LGA used as the official NYC weather obs until Central Park ASOS gets its act together. LGA is also a more central location in the city.
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Was a nice breeze outside a couple hours ago for sure. GFS says we do the same for the next two days. The still cool ocean (Jones Beach water temp is at 66F) and hot land over NJ drive the strong breeze due to the resulting pressure gradient. Latest Euro and GFS have a backdoor front that approach later in the weekend so that would slam shut any "heat wave" east of the city. The immediate south shore might not even make it to the mid 80s in this stretch. I'd say it's 50-50 for north of the LIE making it to 90 on a day or two.
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JFK still gusting to 30 last hour.
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Ambrose Jet certainly wasn’t a bust. JFK gusting to 40 last hour. Might want to avoid the S Shore beaches especially late afternoon this week.
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This ridge pattern in the summer started maybe 5 years ago so it’s hard to say if it’s permanent but I’d argue we’ll pay for it later in the summer since this will also drive SSTs up and humidity on the southerly flow and opens up a lane for more tropical systems to the US. There no relief when we get hot in August and DP hits 75+ which is also a lot more common now.
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Noticeably more humid but S winds are kicking up as expected so we can’t go much over 80. Islip and JFK gusting over 20. The beaches are probably gusting to 30+ or will soon.
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Is this serious? Our highest averages and our worst heat waves come in late July into August.
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The beaches might not be great to be at in fact until late week unless you like your stuff getting blown away. Not great for swimming either due to rip currents. If there’s a heat wave for NYC and East at all the chance would be Thu-Sat. With a strong S wind the north shore might not even get that hot.
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It’ll be “what heat” down there until late week and only if we start getting westerly flow. In fact the beaches will be windy in the afternoons because of the Ambrose Jet. The headlines from this until Thu are north of us.
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We’re trading less heat now east of the city for a swampy later July/Aug when these southerly winds ramp up the SSTs and humidity in later heat waves. And yes it also helps tropical systems survive further north.
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Yup, any valley location there and Upstate are gonna roast.
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GFS has the heat maxing out here late week as the flow turns more westerly. Tue-Wed have a daily Ambrose Jet which will cap any high temps east of the city fast. West of the city away from the seabreeze is of course another story but the steep ridge will initially send the hottest temps upstate and New England before the ridge flattens.
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If this heat wave features strong S winds or SSE no one in the city other than maybe the northern Bronx will be over 95. 90 may even be tough. The real heat for the city and east would be when there’s a westerly component to the wind.
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Glad I won’t be in Albany. Since they downslope in almost any direction, it’ll scorch there for sure. Pretty good bet they hit 100 in this.
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Nice little soaker for the south shore, most places there look to have an inch or so.
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Yep. May 2015 in a 20”+ rain month there, Oct 2015 when there was over 10” in one day, and numerous severe warnings, and a tornado that went within 2 miles of my place. Severe weather wise and flooding it was crazy, but on the flip side I missed the Jan 2015 and 2016 blizzards and numerous other 6”+ storms those winters. I would trade to be here for those. The heat from now until after Labor Day there is also absolutely brutal.
