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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    We need ridging into Alaska to drive cold air south from there. A more rounded ridge pointed into Canada would just bring Pacific mild air in. In December especially near the coast the source region for airmass is very important. And obviously a roaring Pacific jet would tend to knock the ridge down and nudge it east.
  2. jm1220
    A wet October is sometimes a good sign for winter. Cold Octobers are better but dry/warm is almost always bad. Unfortunately with this storm we saw the usual pattern of the SE ridge flexing and forcing the storm track inland.
  3. jm1220
    An inch or so rain here.
  4. jm1220
    Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave.
  5. jm1220
    In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.
  6. jm1220
    Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England.
  7. jm1220
    Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated.
  8. jm1220
    Story of the last 12+ months here. Why would it change now?
  9. jm1220
    The waters off Newfoundland are quite warm which I would think favors the south based block but hopefully I’m wrong.
  10. jm1220
    Even when there is -NAO blocking I don’t see it as worthwhile as it’s been in the past with how far south the blocking sets up a good chunk of the time and tendency to link with the SE ridge. Wavelengths are different in the winter but we have a storm coming up that will be forced inland despite the blocking. Honestly +NAO might be better for snow chances here these days.
  11. jm1220
    Models overnight seemed to get a little better for more widespread 1-2” rain across the area. Maybe we can have a low develop for a while along the front and enhance the rain to the east of the main low. In any event it’s still much needed. Edit-6z looks lame east of the city again and many would have a very quick dry slot and under 0.5”.
  12. jm1220
    Flip side it's light out when I have to wake up for work.
  13. jm1220
    ESE flow ahead of a low tracking inland means lots of upslope for E PA/upstate NY and showery weather for the city/coast. Some places east of the low would get lucky with banding but by far the best would be well inland. Looking like a couple/few day nasty period without much drought help here. Thankfully we had the storm mid month to help a little.
  14. jm1220
    Yep, looking like a shafting east of I-95.
  15. jm1220
    Frictional effects with land especially with such slow movement. In FL we see the same thing with the eye being pulled into the coast near Ft Myers vs Tampa like with Ian and Charley. I think with this angle of approach the effect is to try to keep it offshore?
  16. jm1220
    I hope someone (Josh) can get some photos in that eye. I can’t even imagine what it must be like going from the most violent weather on Earth to sunny calm then back to Armageddon.
  17. jm1220
    Thing is the water will come up very rapidly as the eye comes ashore, like a slowed down tsunami. And gigantic waves on top. I guess it’s a positive in this case that the elevation rises quickly away from the water.
  18. jm1220
    This is just…. Wow as it’s on final approach to land. Don’t want to add clutter but really hope these people in the direct path have a way to get to safety.
  19. jm1220
    Hoping we get decent rain east of the city since it’s still needed. Looking like the best rain may be setting up west of us again.
  20. jm1220
    Yep, that Nov 2018 SWFE snow was totally unexpected and had the impact of a MECS given it was during rush hour and no one planned for it. Driving back to Long Beach from Melville was like a car zombie apocalypse. And it was bad all the way to the immediate shore. I think it was supposed to be a half hour of white rain that’s it.
  21. jm1220
    PWS nearby has 32. May be a little low, surrounding stations have 36-38.
  22. jm1220
    I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21).
  23. jm1220
    Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there.
  24. jm1220
    I saw FRG has 29 dewpoint and ISP 31. I agree they’ll probably tick up overnight. It usually cools down pretty good where I am but I’m elevated 50 feet or so just east of 110.
  25. jm1220
    Where I am I think it’s pretty likely. Dews are in the upper 20s and wind should be about calm.
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