jm1220

The trough is moving into the Gulf of Alaska which means the US/Canada get flooded with maritime air. As long as it stays there you can safely slam the blinds for any wintry weather. Depressing-I did have the one snowy overnight IMBY but nothing else happening in a Dec that might be below normal temp wise is depressing. Hopefully when the torch comes there's sunny weather. I'm perfectly fine with that if it won't snow. Wasted cold/dry to warm/wet is the worst and it happens over and over in these Nina/fast Pacific jet patterns. Get it the F out of here.

A lot’s always had to go right for the coast to get significant snow, but the pieces/pattern were in place prior to 2018-19. The Pacific changed and that’s what ruined it more often than not. Once in a while the NAO can help us out but the Pacific’s always been the main driver. When we’re flooded with warm Pacific air on a roaring fast jet stream or we have a huge negative PNA not much else can help us. We’re not at the latitude where we can count on SWFE events or marginal events.

All I’ll say is I’d rather be told the truth about upcoming warm patterns vs be told what I want to hear for subscriptions and clicks. I’d think/hope most of us do too even though we want snowy patterns and we bias what we read accordingly. And I have to ask-who’s been mostly right since the Pacific pattern changed in 2018? I don’t enjoy reading that it’ll probably stay snowless or below average snow but until the overall pattern changes in a meaningful way to bring chances south of I-90 that’s what’ll likely happen. And again most of you haven’t read Bluewave for years like I have and don’t remember how he’d highlight the tendency for NYC/LI to get big coastal snowstorms during our boom periods. We were due for a significant regression anyway. We all hope it comes to an end soon but the weather/nature don’t care about weenie wishes on a weather board.

Bluewave’s pointed it out many times but the fast Pacific pattern is ruining what storm chances we get and making it much more Nina-like which is cold/dry to warm/wet. The cold troughs are replaced a few days later with a ridge which is when we get the storms. We need a mechanism like blocking to keep the trough in the east when storms come so we don’t get cutters or overwhelming warmth when they happen from the SE ridge flexing.

Congratulations! -11 there last night, just a little(way) too nippy for me. If it's so cold out you can't enjoy the snow that's another bummer. Closest I've ever been to there is Lake George.

FOK down to 12. 20 IMBY.

And down to 23 now. We’ll radiate a lot better tonight if winds stay calm.

FOK down to 17.

Definitely radiating. Down to 22 already.

Yep. Best to keep expectations low and hope for the best.

Unless this holiday period potential pans out, looks like NYC won’t get the Dec 3” snow needed to be optimistic for a snowy winter. As everyone knows, since we have the same bad Pacific base state as the past 5+ years, my expectations are quite low. Hopefully I’m wrong. I agree with hoping for warmth if it won’t snow. We do still need the rain.

Models got the NJ to W LI shaft zone right though. If I’m lucky I’ll end with 1.5”. Probably 1.2-1.3”.

So far heavy meh with some scattered shrug.

So far in Long Beach it’s just breezy. At this point if the winds don’t kick up they likely won’t. Just a nasty evening.

46mph at JFK. Oddly not too windy here. Gusts in the 30s I’d guess.

In Long Beach right now, breezy but no big gusts. Maybe some gusts to 30 or so.

The low did trend west. It’s tracking over PA and that’s where the wind threat came in from LLJ east of it. Some places probably will get 4” but probably eastern Suffolk and New England. More rain area wide would’ve been nice though given we’re still in a severe drought. Maybe this offshore convective stuff is robbing from what’ll pivot overhead later.

Some places in W Suffolk have 1” already, they’ll very likely end over 2”. This offshore slug off NJ will probably hit those east of Rt 111. West of there looks like has to wait for the stuff over E PA to come in. So that’s where the sucker hole that might get 1” happens.

I’m thinking the rain where the dry slot is now does fill in later but that’s where the lower amounts will be that some models have. We have to wait for the main heavy rain area with the low to move east. 1-2” is welcome of course but we need more. And we’ll see what the winds do this afternoon on the coast. Suffolk might get the worst of both worlds with 3”+ and 60 mph gusts.

It does look like there'll be a relative sucker zone between the heavier offshore stuff and the area inland where heavy rain trains for a while. 1-2" vs maybe 4".

Doesn’t seem to be much of an inversion with temps and dewpoints in the 50s. We’ll see. Hard to tell in advance sometimes if these wind events are overhyped or they produce.

Surprised there aren’t more posts about this. Models show a window for gusts 50-60mph+ tomorrow evening near the coast. It won’t snow but that’s enough to cause local power issues.

Rudolph moved to Hudson Bay?

Just as the snow got very heavy in Long Beach the R/S line surged north, the huge aggregates started and 10 minutes later all rain. The R/S line stopped dead on Merrick Rd for hours. I think I ended with 7" of slop but most of the rest of LI had 12+.

Nothing's worse than where I grew up for any winter event and even some better events for most like 2/13/14. I just happened to get a good deal on where I live now too.