jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range.
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They've been issued for the NW suburbs where they're most confident of warning level amounts for now.
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Depends on where the cyclogenesis happens. If it happens over NJ like the RGEM certainly. If it’s offshore like the other models, the N flow will pull the cold air in. It’s an arctic airmass being tapped.
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There’s no way there can be a GFS like outcome shifted 25-50mi southeast or even the numerous Euro outcomes that would be a solid hit everywhere? I’m as aware as anyone that I could be dealing with a mainly rain event here and the RGEM barely budged but that’s ridiculous.
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If we could tick the GFS 25 miles SE everyone would win. RGEM-no comment.
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I know, I used to live in Austin where I was urged to stay off any road after there was a tiny amount of sleet on the ground. Feb 2021 was an absolute disaster there and 6” in Houston would be just the same.
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Not sure where you are, NW NJ? But that looks like one of the best places to be for this event.
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For the billionth time it needs to be retired.
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Blowing and drifting for the Alamo?
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It’s not really elevation, it’s the storm’s track and speed that the cold air to the west can come in. It’s bone chilling cold right behind the storm. When the winds turn west temps should drop quick.
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It’ll be funny to see which either Euro or CMC ends up face planting. Hundreds of mile difference with 60hrs to go.
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Well-hope you’re right
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K.
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Just glad it didn’t lurch NW. But plenty of time for that to happen still.
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Sigh of relief.
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It hasn’t really budged. We’re at the point where you have to weigh it somewhat. And GFS did go NW at 6z. We’ll see soon enough what the overall trend is. If we see models lurch NW at 12z we’ll know where this is going.
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I said it before-would fit the winter theme to a T if in the 48 hours it’s warm enough we get a coastal hugger mostly rain then back to suppressed crap.
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Agree, if we see a big shift west from other models the fat lady’ll start tuning up.
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If that’s the case it’s a washout from the city east and maybe even to the Tappan Zee. Disaster. Hopefully it’s wrong but we’re at the stage where we want it to start moving east. Either the Euro or Canadian will fall flat on its face, no compromise here.
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I think we’ll be fine as long as the low stays SE of the island. As always if we see it track over NJ we’ll have a problem. The cold air press/fast flow will hopefully nudge it east.
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I wouldn’t worry about anything the HRRR says. I’m not losing hope east of the city but we need these west trends to stop pronto.
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I’d feel pretty good about 6” west of the Tappan Zee and along I-287/I-87.
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If the low goes SE of Montauk I would think we’d be ok-the arctic air should wrap in close to the low. It’s those solutions where it plops over LBI that we’d be in trouble.
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What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one.
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I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much.
