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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Too early to focus on a specific track now but if confluence is getting better that’s good. We need resistance to the north to force this SE of us.
  2. jm1220
    I think we need better PNA cooperation than models have now. There’s too much risk of storms trending too far north without it.
  3. jm1220
    Yep, with the PNA not cooperating so well this could end up trying to run inland. Time for that to improve still though
  4. jm1220
    Also possible that a stronger Wave 1 could help suppress Wave 2 behind it?
  5. jm1220
    Haven’t been following this very closely yet but it wouldn’t surprise me if the second wave for Weds trended more amped due to the not great PNA. Gives the trough more room to amplify in the East and force a NW track. The blocking up north does force it to redevelop somewhere but hopefully it’s not when we’re already flooded in warm air. A primary that hangs on too long (never a problem here ) also sends warm air aloft in which means a lot of sleet. Still long ways to go though.
  6. jm1220
    Up this way including NE Nassau it’s in the upper 20s. Slight SW wind keeping it much warmer right on the S Shore.
  7. jm1220
    I’m no fan of the ridge east of Hawaii-it would cause lower heights out West than we want. It could lead to a situation where the low tries to cut and we have to hope the blocking can force a transfer to an offshore system in time which usually isn’t the case here. That could mean snow to rain near the coast and more snow further north like the I-90 corridor.
  8. jm1220
    It’s definitely better than last winter. One thing I’m not thrilled about is the ridge east of Hawaii in the means. Normally you want a trough there. Storms that try to amplify may try to cut first and bring warm air in. Maybe the blocking could result in them being snow to rain here or force a redevelopment in time for New England to remain snow.
  9. jm1220
    Perhaps the closest recent event was the 2/25/10 retrograde bomb that gave Central Park 21” and parts of upstate NY over 36” but it likely was a warmer storm and a little faster moving than Mar 1888.
  10. jm1220
    PA over 250 dead today. Horrifying. Really is a nationwide surge now vs regional like the summer and spring.
  11. jm1220
    For the next 2 weeks there’ll be huge numbers coming out from there. The stay home orders should really help after the 20th or so at least for new cases. Hope they have enough hospital room.
  12. jm1220
    Certainly not how NY is doing it. Cuomo has been threatening shutdowns again and although the outbreak is worsening here it’s nowhere near some of these badly affected Midwest states over the last 2-3 months.
  13. jm1220
    16” where I was living then 10 miles east of JFK airport. First time I definitely heard thundersnow. Fast switch to mostly rain though on the eastern 1/2 of Long Island.
  14. jm1220
    That’s unbelievable to me. IN is limiting hospital procedures and is nearing/at hospital capacity but has businesses open 100% capacity? No even talk of limiting capacity or closures?
  15. jm1220
    Temps are also getting into the mid-upper 30s now so it may be mix rain/snow when it does hit the ground.
  16. jm1220
    There were palm tree forests at the Arctic Circle when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Just sayin....
  17. jm1220
    Those areas did well with the upslope favored events over the last couple of weeks. The lake effect/upper low system from a week or so ago for OH/W PA also produced a ton of upslope snow down to NC.
  18. jm1220
    I think Worldometers tries to backdate those backlogs to the proper day(s) but unsustainable nonetheless.
  19. jm1220
    If you mean 2009-10 it was a moderate Nino with a strong Subtropical jet, which is great for places south of Philly. 2010-11 was a moderate Nina I believe with strong blocking, which was a much better winter from Philly on north. DC had much less from what I know.
  20. jm1220
    Wow-AZ with over 12000 cases today? A lot of that must be backlog?
  21. jm1220
    Urban heat island and coastal affects already showing up this evening. Down to about 28 in my area but on the LI Sound/South shore and in NYC still in the mid to upper 30s.
  22. jm1220
    Ugh. I remember living through that one at PSU and it being a nasty ice event.
  23. jm1220
    Shame. This could’ve been a big snow event here with a little better interaction within the trough and some more space from the last storm.
  24. jm1220
    So much for the stinger...
  25. jm1220
    The thing is it's still happening? The CCB held on pretty well until about now where it's dying down south of ME. The rates/flakes were that crappy? My precip ended by 2pm and I'm not that far from you.
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