jm1220

The radar has that shredded look I mentioned in that area. Warm air has an easier time advancing in the mid levels when you can't get sustained lift and precip rates.

Thanks. Still a respectable event for most and about what I'm thinking. Those are definitely my two "what can go wrongs"-the mid level warmth and overshooting warm advection snow leaving people south of it in a dryslot or light precip. HRRR has been pushing that further and further NE all day. Guess that's to be expected with the 700mb low hanging on so long. Hopefully it'll verify south a little and the wetter models like the GFS have a clue.

It's overshooting the main warm advection snow further and further NE so we deal with subsidence. Just have to see what happens at this point.

Think there’s a good shot at reaching over 15” for the month after tonight.

And it shows next to no snow west of BGM which is already wrong.

Hopefully BGM can fight off mixing. Probably a good sign down here if they can stay all snow. Further west around Elmira looks like they’re fighting back and forth.

For my sake here I’ll definitely be rooting for you lol.

Doubtful but I think if Boston gets 3”+ NYC gets less than 3. I don’t see this as a situation where both cities win. The snow really making it that far E means either/both a lot of warm mid level air or a dry slot under the warm advection heavy snow in NYC. NWS also quite aggressive out here, my point/click is 7-11” and expected amount up to 9”. I’m thinking the low end of that and any 9” would be out by Port Jeff to Riverhead maybe but we’ll have to see. Regardless 7” is still a very respectable event. Still thinking the city is a general 3-6”, 3 for Staten Island and Rockaways, 6 for the Bronx and NE Queens.

Your area’s gonna do very well. Probably best of anyone on LI.

Yep, this close in that’s ridiculous. You can’t call it 3-6”?

If you were expecting a big snowstorm south of NYC from this particularly near Trenton and south I’m not sure what to say. There was very little to support that from what I’ve seen the last 48 hours. These storm types-SWFE or overrunning type storms correct north so many times at the end. That being said from here I’m following the short range models like the HRRR and radar trends.

Probably a sharper cutoff than modeled but there’s always that 700mb fronto jackpot band.

If you were to pick a best place to be for this storm it’s probably the eastern Catskills to Albany then SE from there through most of CT. If you get 10” anywhere that’s where it’d probably be. Huge start to the season for S NY to the Capital district. I’m honestly more concerned about the big overrunning going to my north and getting porked on QPF waiting in subsidence vs a period of sleet that would cut my totals down but we’ll see. Odds are still for a significant event here east of the city for most of LI.

Yep always something to keep in mind with a strong 700mb low to our NW. Could be a sneaky warm layer in there that takes over if/when snow rates reduce.

Looks about right to me. I could see it going a little further though and reaching SI/Brooklyn/JFK area. Can’t rule that out.

It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet.

Now it's stingy as hell with QPF though lol. The 3k only has like 0.4" liquid here. Thankfully that's on its own. This model should be taken out back to the woodshed and decapitated. I can see something like that though if the main overrunning snow band goes north of here and we're stuck in subsidence waiting for the meat of the precip to come through.

Definitely don’t think this will be a whiff here lol. I think most of us are good too outside of central NJ/I-78 and S and maybe southern NYC, for them hopefully we see a NAM tick south at 12z. I don’t think this will be around long enough for 10”+ aside from maybe a lucky spot here or there, but 6-9” for most is definitely a solid event.

In an overrunning driven storm like this? Always. I’m thinking it’s less than 50-50 that my area goes to sleet but wouldn’t shock me if it happened. NAM may be too warm in the mid levels but I’m confident it’s closer to right than the colder models.

20 here.

My guess for us is around 7". I think we do quite well but can see how we end up on the higher side with good banding or get relatively skunked sitting in a subsidence hole with CT getting hammered and us mixing with sleet. I think it's low likelihood here but can't be ruled out.

If near warning snow is making it to Boston, a chunk of what my backyard gets even will likely be sleet. I know other models are colder but we’ve seen them verify too cold in these type events. It’s clipper like but behaving like a SWFE with overrunning into cold air. Like that or not, take what you will but historically SWFE is not good for NYC. It’s not your typical SWFE for sure but these overrunning deals so often pull the rug out by trending north at the end. We’re at the point where we just have to see what happens. Hopefully we get good precip that doesn’t shoot over way NE and we’re not waiting for hours in the city as it warms in the mid levels.

25 here.

Probably. We'll know the nature of this in the morning/early afternoon. If the heavy snow shield looks like it'll pound the city and Allentown gets a couple hours of good snow, that's a great sign for the city that they'll hit warning totals. If the heavy snow instead looks like it will overshoot the city and nail ALB to HFD, the city is dry in the meantime and Allentown starts right off as sleet when heavier precip finally gets there, NYC will likely underperform because the big WAA snow push is happening north of the city, warm air will get chances to advance aloft in shredded/crap precip and when it gets here it'll be too late.

Obs and totals thread created.