jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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The problem was that as soon as a ridge would try to get established in the West, the Pacific jet would just knock it down or shove it east which meant storms couldn’t turn the corner in a good place for us and they’d be forced out to sea. We also couldn’t get a well timed phase with so much chaos and shortwaves everywhere. That’s why I’m so pessimistic about our chances especially north of DC to south of Boston with this pattern continuing. I-90 to maybe I-84 can still get good events from SWFE, very rarely down here when everything aligns. The suppressed patterns can help the DC/Baltimore area and south. East of I-81 and north of the M/D line to around the I-84 corridor, we need those benchmark tracks to have a shot at normal snow. We’re in a unique shaft zone here with this new regime.
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I want for him to be wrong too but unfortunately the laws of physics and reality couldn’t care less about what we want.
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As others pointed out the models seem to be backing down and it should be an advisory event. A lot of leaves have already come off trees as well which will help limit damage potential.
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I love the wet snow that clings to trees and all surfaces vs the drier snow that blows and drifts where one spot can have 2-3 feet and nothing right next to it. Like you said I’ll gladly take whatever we get in this new regime.
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The snowy December years often have a “round 2” later in the winter like 2017-18 where the NYC area cashes in again and ends above normal. Winters where Dec doesn’t produce often have the raging Pacific jet or other unfavorable driving factor that never goes away. 2010-11 was one Nina where we really had a 6 week winter from Christmas to 2/1 and that was it, but it was among the most epic in history.
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ISP got skunked a couple times last winter where the north shore was still able to do okay. I ended up with just over 19” with the help of those marginal events. Usually MBY does close or as well as coastal CT.
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Hopefully NYC can get the 4” in Dec that normally translates to a good Nina winter. If under 4” the winter will almost certainly be a bust. We need to take advantage of the early winter window Nina often provides to get on the board.
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Know all those areas very well. I live just NE of Rt 110 and Jericho Tpke intersection.
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I’d be beyond thrilled with 30” here. My immediate part of LI is often close with coastal CT for snow. I’m thinking less especially if we get another zonked Pacific Jet dominated winter but hopefully we have some good opportunities come to reality.
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Old Forge-5 hour drive away but may as well be 5 light years in terms of snow.
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Neap tides with the half moon helped keep the water levels down a little but strong easterly winds piling in water will always be a problem here.
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The shaft zone was roughly the Suffolk border to about 8 miles or so east. I have maybe 1.4” here. Better than it could have been.
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- heavy rain
- damaging wind? squalls?
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We need ridging into Alaska to drive cold air south from there. A more rounded ridge pointed into Canada would just bring Pacific mild air in. In December especially near the coast the source region for airmass is very important. And obviously a roaring Pacific jet would tend to knock the ridge down and nudge it east.
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A wet October is sometimes a good sign for winter. Cold Octobers are better but dry/warm is almost always bad. Unfortunately with this storm we saw the usual pattern of the SE ridge flexing and forcing the storm track inland.
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An inch or so rain here.
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Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave.
- 246 replies
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- heavy rain
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In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.
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Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England.
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Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
jm1220 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated. -
Story of the last 12+ months here. Why would it change now?
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The waters off Newfoundland are quite warm which I would think favors the south based block but hopefully I’m wrong.
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Even when there is -NAO blocking I don’t see it as worthwhile as it’s been in the past with how far south the blocking sets up a good chunk of the time and tendency to link with the SE ridge. Wavelengths are different in the winter but we have a storm coming up that will be forced inland despite the blocking. Honestly +NAO might be better for snow chances here these days.
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Models overnight seemed to get a little better for more widespread 1-2” rain across the area. Maybe we can have a low develop for a while along the front and enhance the rain to the east of the main low. In any event it’s still much needed. Edit-6z looks lame east of the city again and many would have a very quick dry slot and under 0.5”.
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Flip side it's light out when I have to wake up for work.
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ESE flow ahead of a low tracking inland means lots of upslope for E PA/upstate NY and showery weather for the city/coast. Some places east of the low would get lucky with banding but by far the best would be well inland. Looking like a couple/few day nasty period without much drought help here. Thankfully we had the storm mid month to help a little.
