jm1220

What we’ve had work out so far are simpler setups that don’t rely on a bunch of factors working out. The super SWFE over the weekend-huge slug of moisture running into a high pressure dome. The two clippers in Dec, we were lucky to be in their path and they picked up some Atlantic moisture. We’re still in this rut where we can’t get anything more complex to happen because of too much interference. Love em or hate em (I still generally hate em), SWFEs are a lot simpler and more predictable several days out that don’t require complex phasing or other factors to work out.

Thanks! Excellent job as always.

It’s dragging the baroclinic zone too far east and ruining any setup for our storm to dominate and come up the coast. It strings the whole thing out and it drunkenly stumbles out to sea. It’s like seeing a 6’3” 230 pound guy who’s intimidating at first until you realize he’s drunk as a skunk and he stumbles face first into a pole. Awesome potential, terrible verification. The last few winters it’s always something that ruins these setups.

They definitely seem to be getting better in general. They were good with the Dec snowstorms we had.

This could still come back, again won’t take much but 0z wasn’t what we wanted and the clock is ticking. By 0z tonight I’d say the window is closed. And another coastal storm fail because of too much interference and whatever else is happening with a trillion shortwaves fits the mold of the last few winters.

Maybe WeatherGeek can run an AI and make a MS Paint map for Bermuda.

So the rules of this new regime do still apply here where it’s pulling teeth to get any kind of good coastal storm. Jan 2022 had a similar problem where it had a double low that prevented it from really consolidating and blasting places west of the city, which it would have if not for the double low. In Mar 2023 there was a coastal storm that developed the double low which prevented much of New England from changing to heavy snow along with the interior. Last winter suppressed fail after fail. And now this total failure with who knows WTF is going on and 20 vortmaxes that develop 5 different strung out lows. What a waste is right.

Down to 6.

There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess.

We can pray.

Again there aren’t huge changes needed for a significant to major storm for most. The kicker stays behind a little bit, the low closes off a little later/NE, the vorticity is a little less strung out/messy as it clears the coast. Eventually it becomes clear it won’t work out and you have to fold your hand but we’re not there yet.

Tonight or tomorrow 12z we need more sustained NW ticks. No more NW jump then slither back SE.

12/27/04 type outcome. Would be a heartbreaker for many.

Actually 3 lows. The more of a strung out mess this is the less chance of any impact here. Hopefully to some extent it’s the models having trouble keying in on which low is dominant.

Italy was amazing. The snow is great of course but this cold hits when you get used to 60s.

I mean look-we have 10+ inches of hardened snow on the ground and huge piles in every parking lot that will last into March, and bays/rivers all freezing over. If this one misses there will be another. It’s as deep winter here as you could ever ask for.

He used to live in Boston.

Not at all. It’s a very volatile setup where small changes aloft can result in significant changes at the surface. That said there are larger features that aren’t favorable-the kicker coming from the Dakotas, early closing off and positive tilt. We need one or two of those to change around soon.

Good sign. But tonight I’d say we need consistent positive trends to start. We all know the negatives-kicker diving SE, 6 different unconsolidated lows, positive tilt, closes off early. One or two of those need to trend in a positive direction at least.

Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable.

If the overall setup doesn’t allow for a NW trend it won’t. Last winter it sure didn’t help with all the suppressed crap we saw. Not saying this one won’t but if the setup is that it closes off and occludes early, 4 lows develop off Cape Hatteras and it’s too positive tilt, it can only trend N so far.

Trough induces like 5 lows to develop too as it gets to the VA/NC capes so it can’t congeal and gets booted east. That might be the model trying to resolve a low center or it might be real-Jan 2022 suffered from a double low dragging everything east. Hopefully by tonight 0z we start to see this turn around, otherwise I think the fat lady’s starting to sing. If this one doesn’t happen I’m confident there will be other threats.

Some models are kinda trending to bands of snow getting west as the low spins and rots. Better than zippo.

Having the trough start with such a positive tilt isn’t helpful either. Although if anything the ridge axis in the west is getting even further west.

The models have hopefully improved since then but given how little has to change we’re all still in the game, admittedly eastern areas more. It’s not like last winter where we saw a few random weenie runs that we all knew deep down were BS because of the raging Pacific pattern that would destroy the setup.