jm1220

Down to 6.

Looks just lame altogether other than a 75 mile wide strip near the Tidewater and E NC. 0.3” liquid as snow for Raleigh is notable and I think a warning event down there but nothing historic.

A bit of a breeze is kicking up so it hasn’t gotten below 16-17 so far. Until that breeze stops the bottom won’t really drop out on temps.

Doubting it’ll even be that much without a significant NW shift. I don’t see anything to support anything getting west of Montauk maybe. Today was a kick in the crotch.

It’ll come back down. Models are even barely grazing the outer Cape now. Ouch.

Take the stuff about the media to banter. I agree it’s annoying and meant for clicks/views but the political rabbit hole we always go down is worse.

I agree, just get this out of here at this point and move on. There’ll be more chances before the cold lets up.

Ensembles are better at longer lead time to get an idea of the likelihood of a storm, i.e. 40 or 50%. We definitely were in the game a few days ago given the setup. But they smooth things out too much because of outliers and lower resolution so closer in we use the op models and it’s clear now there are a bunch of negative factors getting in the way of a big storm outcome that they pick up on.

Whole lotta meh. Like 6 different lows all forming different heavy precip areas and it’s all just a discombobulated strung out disaster.

My car thermometer said 8 when I left for work this morning. Tonight might get down close to zero if we stay clear and calm wind.

Yeah we need consistent NW trends at this point, not wishy washy a little jump NW then back SE. At 0z if we don’t see that then I’m calling it dead.

Yep I could still see a rotting band or two make its way to Suffolk County or NJ. Could be good for a 1-3” deal. Out by the twin forks maybe 3-6”.

I have close to 30”-near my season average so I’m definitely not complaining. There will be other opportunities and I’m confident something will work out when we’re still in the cold air and we’re going into our snowiest month of the year. But it’s impossible not to see at this point how much interference there is these days against any kind of big coastal storm-it’s either a kicker, random vorts destroying the baroclinic zone and stringing it out, all these things we see now wrong with this storm and ruining the setup.

What we’ve had work out so far are simpler setups that don’t rely on a bunch of factors working out. The super SWFE over the weekend-huge slug of moisture running into a high pressure dome. The two clippers in Dec, we were lucky to be in their path and they picked up some Atlantic moisture. We’re still in this rut where we can’t get anything more complex to happen because of too much interference. Love em or hate em (I still generally hate em), SWFEs are a lot simpler and more predictable several days out that don’t require complex phasing or other factors to work out.

Thanks! Excellent job as always.

It’s dragging the baroclinic zone too far east and ruining any setup for our storm to dominate and come up the coast. It strings the whole thing out and it drunkenly stumbles out to sea. It’s like seeing a 6’3” 230 pound guy who’s intimidating at first until you realize he’s drunk as a skunk and he stumbles face first into a pole. Awesome potential, terrible verification. The last few winters it’s always something that ruins these setups.

They definitely seem to be getting better in general. They were good with the Dec snowstorms we had.

This could still come back, again won’t take much but 0z wasn’t what we wanted and the clock is ticking. By 0z tonight I’d say the window is closed. And another coastal storm fail because of too much interference and whatever else is happening with a trillion shortwaves fits the mold of the last few winters.

Maybe WeatherGeek can run an AI and make a MS Paint map for Bermuda.

So the rules of this new regime do still apply here where it’s pulling teeth to get any kind of good coastal storm. Jan 2022 had a similar problem where it had a double low that prevented it from really consolidating and blasting places west of the city, which it would have if not for the double low. In Mar 2023 there was a coastal storm that developed the double low which prevented much of New England from changing to heavy snow along with the interior. Last winter suppressed fail after fail. And now this total failure with who knows WTF is going on and 20 vortmaxes that develop 5 different strung out lows. What a waste is right.

Down to 6.

There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess.

We can pray.

Again there aren’t huge changes needed for a significant to major storm for most. The kicker stays behind a little bit, the low closes off a little later/NE, the vorticity is a little less strung out/messy as it clears the coast. Eventually it becomes clear it won’t work out and you have to fold your hand but we’re not there yet.

Tonight or tomorrow 12z we need more sustained NW ticks. No more NW jump then slither back SE.