jm1220

Yep, weaker and further south primary is definitely what we want. I haven’t looked at the 700/850mb panels but I’d assume those improved as well.

Good to see the NAM get slightly colder and bump the QPF up. With the heavy snow burst to start it should work to hold the warm air back a little at 750-800mb that would flip us over. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the lighter QPF models also flipped us quicker. Becoming a little more confident at least the northern parts of NYC/LI and toward I-80 get the higher end of 8-12”.

Thankfully they have a long time to catch up. I think some of Denver's biggest storms have been in April.

If we have heavy rates we can overcome shallow layers a bit above freezing-we might get rimed flakes etc but it's when the rates are reduced and we get dry holes in the precip that the warm air can become more established. And sometimes there are sneaky warm layers that aren't captured well in the soundings. Seems like the warm layer that can flip us over would be around 750mb from what I've seen. In any case it will still snow a lot and hopefully by the time the sleet gets here we're about to shut it off anyway. That's a potent high pressure dome all that Gulf moisture is slamming into and it will take a while to warm it up. The dryslot will also be a consideration if we have a strong 700mb low tracking into Lake Erie. Dry air will pivot around the SE side of it.

Yep, it will be hard as granite. The snowpack will contain the same water as anywhere else since we aren't transitioning to rain or going above freezing-it will just be denser near the coast.

Good thing I don't have to commute there.

Oh yeah. Sleet has more bang for its buck-doesn't pile up like snow obviously but will thicken up the snowpack and be a huge pain to move. After 3/14/17 the snow/ice piles were crazy. I remember the Feb 2007 storm in central PA with 10-11" of thick snow/sleet that hardened up into cement. A week from now even though we shave a few snow inches off for sleet I doubt people will be complaining if they like snowpack staying around like me.

I’m sure they’ll adjust further today. Hopefully the models are done with the warm shifts but the confluence needs to hold as long as it can.

NAM is usually closer to right than the other models but it can be too aggressive with it. In Dec it had me mixing but I never really did.

It’s doing what just about any SWFE does. If you want all snow from these you want to be on the I-90 corridor. This is a bigger SWFE than usual with better front end snow but it’s behaving typical for them.

Yep, much as I want 15” I just don’t see it around the city/coast. I-84 corridor is another story. I’m quite confident we’ll be mixing but hopefully most of it’s over by then. My thought is still 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to 80. And honestly I consider 10” with some sleet pounded in to be a good win.

Probably. In addition to the ZR heavy ice zone, just north will be the sleet bomb.

It's the NAM of course but to avoid sleet we need those lows tracking well south of there.

The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then.

And that should help hold the warm mid level air back. Hopefully the sleet gets here just as the precip is about to end anyway.

There’ll definitely be a zone somewhere from likely N/C Texas around Dallas to Waco, maybe Austin to the Carolinas that get hammered with ice and possibly devastating in some places.

There’s a ton of moisture being thrown over a strong expansive overrunning dome this time which makes it different from most SWFEs and makes for a wide expanse of snow ahead of the mix line. That’s how DC is also in line for a 6”+ event here.

These would be 2/1/21 like totals at least for the city and LI. Much as I think this will be an impressive storm here I don’t see that kind of an outcome at least here.

Maybe we get a compromise of some type since the amped models seem to be relaxing a bit. But it would take a lot for me to buy into a SWFE type system dumping widespread 12”+ in NYC. Would I buy that in Boston-sure.

I wouldn’t go higher than 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to I-80 right now because of uncertainty and models like the RGEM. It’s possible the GFS is right but it’s wiser to hedge toward how SWFEs usually are which is they try to amp and trend north unless there’s the brick confluence wall to stop them, and sneaky warm layers that try to move in quicker than expected. But the GFS is another possibility if we can catch a break with a further south transfer and decent coastal development, in which case those 12-18” amounts really can happen. North of the city especially I-84 corridor I think is a lock for 12”+. We’re lucky this is a SWFE setup where it’s running into a huge overrunning dome/high pressure which means even the amped models dump 6-8” before changing over and again-the sleet will definitely have its own impact and thicken up the snow pack.

Oh I agree.

I’m glad that the “low end” RGEM still gets us with 6-8” at 10-1 with the overrunning surge and we have the high end GFS/UKMET with 12”+.

It transfers it earlier/further south which keeps the mid level warm air away. And puts us in a pivot zone where we don’t dry slot and the coastal snow takes over. That’s another consequence of a primary driving into Buffalo-the 700mb layer dries out and we get the dry slot. GFS has been consistent I’ll give it that.

If we can manage 1” liquid as snow then I’m pretty confident we can manage 12”, I think the NWS amounts are a little high. If something like the RGEM happens then sleet probably would cut into the accums a decent amount in the city/LI and up to the CT coast. Still time for trends in either direction with this one and if this is more of a SWFE it will try to get as far north as it can. We want a sloppy phase and stronger confluence.

You’re near Tom’s River right? You’ll get the initial overrunning snow burst the rest of us get so you should do well too.