jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Stop using kuchera maps for the love of God.
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Getting there. It's occluding early still for a huge hit but we're seeing the steps we need.
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Wow, 6-7 members due S of LI? Wouldn't surprise me if in a couple days we're praising the heavens for the kicker coming at it.
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Was a very tough storm to forecast when you got into the nitty gritty and with the higher QPF than predicted. I didn’t think anyone in NYC or LI would reach 12” in this type of storm and I was wrong. It’s a humbling hobby.
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Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic.
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This is why we don't jump off bridges 120+ hours out with as fragile a setup as this.
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NWS mets actually analyze the data and don’t flip flop and panic like a bunch of weather board weenies.
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We don’t need massive changes lol. EPS getting less impressive is a bummer but we really do just need some small changes in the timing of the upper low cutting off/further NE and the kicker being a little slower and spaced apart from our storm. It’s not like last winter where we had a few phantom MECS runs we all wanted to believe but based on the pattern we knew it was bogus.
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It improved somewhat from 6z. Anyway I wouldn’t write it off especially for coastal areas until Thursday.
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And oh man do we suffer in this hobby.
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It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go.
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And considering there’s almost always a northernmost fluff band with these, this might be good on its own for warning snow into NYC.
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We don’t need much. I wouldn’t be discounting anything until probably Thu night.
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We can afford baby steps at this lead time.
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Yep, we might be singing its praises later this week if the coastal storm development gets itself together so we’re not tracking this into NYC. The ridge axis here doesn’t scream way offshore track to me.
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Seems kinda disjointed with the energy until it’s too late and out to sea. In any case it’s the Icon and not too concerned.
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Yep, I don’t see this as something that comes storming back and we’re sweating the mix/rain line but we’ll see. There is the kicker right on its heels and the NAO blocking so there’s only so far west it can really trend but 150-200 miles, sure.
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The ridge axis so far west gives me more hope this won’t slip out to sea. It’s in a place where honestly it’s better for the Apps. If it was say over the Dakotas that would be more of a problem. But a couple of tweaks which are very doable at this stage and we’re back to monster solutions.
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Took almost 10 minutes just to drive down my street to Jericho Turnpike this morning. I live on a narrow curvy street and the snow banks plus school buses made it ridiculous.
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Sleet is 3-1 ratio roughly, so if there’s 0.7” liquid as sleet that would be just over 2”. But it would be 7” of snow if assuming 10-1 for snow. Seeing as many of us had a couple inches of sleet, probably 0.7” liquid fell as sleet so we’d be approaching 20” if it was all snow.
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We do need it to dig a little less and occlude later. On these models that boot it out it occludes very early and then bounces east. It needs to gain some latitude before occluding. I would assume those tucked in models dig it less and occlude it a little later. We also need to watch the shortwave over the upper Midwest-it can act as a kicker.
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1.90”-wow. The snow banks resemble an 18” storm because of all the water content.
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Still calculating all the snow that falls in NYC obviously.
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I guess verbatim on these op runs the low is occluding very early and there’s the kicker over MN/IA but the ensembles signal is what we’re still looking for at this lead. By Thursday maybe I’d pay more attention to the op runs. Still plenty of time here to reel it in.
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Yep-I remember how much ice I saw on Reynolds Channel in Jan 2004 and being amazed, it really resembled the Arctic. Would be awesome to see that again.
