jm1220

I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here.

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever.

Lee Goldberg has 1-3" for NYC and most coastal areas (less than 1" far eastern LI, south Jersey Shore). Mentioned colder conditions on Fri than some models are showing. But honestly, good luck to anyone who has to make a snow forecast right now. Could be 1" in the city if the CCB is crap and we don't cool down, to half a foot or more if it really goes off.

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model.

Nina years are always concerning here. Ninas keep the SE Ridge strong as well as the Pacific Jet. We could have an 07-08 winter with tons of SWFE events that nail I-90, or one with tons of Lakes cutters. If we can get a few periods of blocking, it could be another blockbuster like 10-11. Could really go either way. If it's not roaring into a strong Nina, our odds are probably better.

I ended up with about a foot. A ton was wasted on the front end with sleet and rain in Long Beach. We had almost as much liquid as areas east of us.

Believe it or not State College's snow average is in the mid 40s, but since the recent shift to big offshore and late developing coastal storms from NJ on NE, that area's been left high and dry. Clippers usually do okay there, since it's close enough to the Allegheny spine to still get some decent snow before downsloping really shafts the Susquehanna Valley. But transferring Miller B-type systems often do little there since the moisture and lift shifts to the coast, it's often too warm for systems that hit the I-90 corridor hard, lake cutters often just bring a lot of sleet or ZR before rain, and lake effect is usually just flurries other than being very lucky with a long running band (happened a couple of times when I was there with a few inches of surprise snow). In the 1990s, coast hugging miller A's were more common, which are what does bury central PA, but those never happen anymore. March 1993's monster was over 2 feet there, as was a similar storm in March 1994. It was very frustrating being there as a snow weenie, for sure. And I remember having numerous close calls and good setups that ended up producing little. One of these years the pattern will shift back to producing again back there, but it's undeniable that there's been a shift away from the types of snowstorms that can hit central PA really hard.

Nice towers up this evening east of Austin-towards Bastrop. Radar indicates a small patch of 2" of rain there.

It was pretty much a bust for I-35, as I suspected it would be last night when the boundary was pushed way SE of where models had it by the MCV that rolled through yesterday afternoon. Some places SE of San Antonio did get 6"+ of rain, mainly in low populated areas.

10" this month, 1.6" today where I am. Camp Mabry's August all time record is about 9.6", so that's already beaten a few miles south of there. Models are firing the rain back up over I-35 overnight, but for now the main heavy rain axis was shunted pretty far SE by the MCV that came through the area this afternoon. That will have to start to shift back north pretty soon for the models to verify. Pretty sure the models are busting on the SE extent of the heavy rain-it's making inroads towards the Corpus Christi area now when most models had SE TX largely dry. If the rain stalls out there instead, I doubt we see much more in the Austin/San Antonio areas-the moisture will all be used up there.

It's looking like there could be some serious flooding from this area south through San Antonio and west. NWS is projecting up to 15" of rain in spots, which would cause major flooding considering all the rain we've had in the last 4-5 days. The latest models are starting to focus on the Austin area and just south/west. This might become a very dangerous event if we get training heavy rain/storms overnight.

Euro has another 4"+ of rain coming later this weekend especially I-35 and west with locally 7" in the western Hill Country. I think Camp Mabry needs 3.5" or so to make this the wettest August on record. I ended up with about 8.5" from the latest system that is finally gone. For LA, rain looks to be lighter, 1-3", but obviously any rain is unwelcome there (or here at this point-some creeks around Austin had flooding at times in the last few days).

Today's rain brought me to over 8". A couple of spots just west of town closer to Lake Travis have 12"+.

Heavy rain again nailing western Travis/Hays Counties where 8-10"+ of rain has already fallen, and creeks have already been flooding. Hearing thunder outside now, rain is slowly pivoting east again towards downtown. The last few nights have had these bouts of locally heavy rain that have dropped locally 3-5" each night.

Flash flood warnings up again for Austin and suburbs. About to go over 7" where I am, and other area totals are 8-10"+.

Flash Flood Warnings out for western Travis, Williamson and Burnet Counties. The Lake Travis area was nailed early this morning-Lakeway has an event total over 10" now.

High was 76 at Camp Mabry today. Was unbelievably refreshing, actually chilly. I think this is a record for lowest high temp for this date, about 20 degrees below normal. Event total just shy of 5" where I am.

About 4.5" total now where I am in Austin. We should be over 5" by the end of today given the steady light rain and mod/heavy patches around.

More of a general soaking around Austin today than yesterday. 2.1" of rain where I am since midnight, most areas are over 1". A couple of localized spots have over 3".

Euro had some pretty crazy rain amounts through day 10 throughout most of TX-widespread 5-8" pockets stretching from Mexico NE through the state.

Last Halloween in Austin we had rain rates like that, it was pretty much completely blinding. The streets went from dry to complete torrents in a few minutes.

Heat index of 116 at Camp Mabry now, 112 at the airport. Today has to be one of the top 5 most disgustingly, rotten hot days of my life.

100 Degree Days so far: Austin Camp Mabry: 21 (Today was especially awesome with a high of 102 and 111 heat index) AUS-Bergstrom Int'l: 8 (In a more rural setting and had a good amount of rain in late July) San Antonio Stinson Airport: 25 San Antonio Int'l: 3 Houston Hobby: 0 Intercontinental: 5 Dallas DFW: 13 Love Field: 14

Yeah, no fun. Today's day 15-currently 101. The ground is completely parched and dry now, crazy considering the wet spring we had. If this keeps up we'll have wildfires soon.

14 days 100+ so far in Austin this summer including today. We're way ahead of last year so far, and we finished with 25 days last summer.