jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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In this pattern if it pans out we’ll hopefully get clipper type systems to track underneath us and redevelop. Essentially the definition of Miller B. Nina seasons like these aren’t known for Miller A systems.
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Yep just like the PNA which seems to run in similar cycles. The 60s had much of that time with -NAO -PNA.
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We have a chance at something decent if the Aleutian ridge can really pop. If it stays too South based the gradient won’t establish far enough south for us and the SE ridge will dominate.
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Heavy rain in Long Beach. Decently gusty winds but nothing crazy.
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Typical of Nina winters. The upper Midwest is usually favored for big winters then along with the Northwest.
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Light snow continuing here. Also a light slushy coating on cars and grass. Nice to see.
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It’s that we have a great run for a few weeks like in Feb or we get shut out these days. Patterns seem to get stuck in place for longer and hit the same areas. It’s why we have few normal seasons anymore-either way above or below normal. There’s some hope towards the end of the month if the west coast ridge can rebuild. But I’d like to see something good happen in December to think we’ll end up with a snowy winter. Statistically a good December is much better than a lousy one for the winter to end up snowier than normal especially in a Nina which are usually front loaded.
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Ninas are known for cutters and SWFEs and it looked for a time like this could be one of them. But the fast flow won out and the system just won’t be able to get itself together in time to affect us. There’s no consolidated system until it’s well out to sea.
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I have to think Nam is out to lunch until other guidance jumps onto anything more than a minor nuisance event.
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Hopefully this can be a nice little event. I’ll definitely be wrong about this being a SWFE due to the fast pattern but maybe it can amp enough for an advisory snow event east of the city. Either way with whatever we get in December should be appreciated. If I had to guess right now I’d say an inch or two from the city on east but possibility for a little more if the Nam is correct.
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Queen Elizabeth set me free!
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you and your stats and facts I’d love for it to somehow work out for us with this storm but we’re working ourselves up for disappointment (near the coast) in a setup like this. Maybe this can be the one that works out but I doubt it. We need blocking and the pattern being slowed down for a storm to work out this Nina season.
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Exactly-I’m not counting on anything until it’s under 72hrs. These can easily trend north significantly at the end.
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That’s exactly what I would expect if you live near the city or coast. Setup wise this isn’t one that favors us. Not sure where you are but if you’re near I-84 and north, sure.
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The upcoming Wed storm looks like a SWFE. Low trying to cut west of here and into a high over Quebec. There are limited circumstances where they can produce here but the odds are much better for the I-84, I-90 areas. Also at the end they usually trend north and warmer.
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I wouldn’t get excited for anything here unless we see more blocking and a strong high to force any low to track south of us. I guess there could be an hour or two of snow/mix before rain near the coast. SWFE setups are rarely good for us. I-84 corridor and up into New England different story.
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Euro’s certainly taken a tumbling the last few years. Really since the 1/25/15 storm debacle.
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Just had a heavier shower here but wind definitely picked up.
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It’s always been clear we’d need Atlantic help this year to stop an awful Pacific pattern. The -PDO is the worst on record and that pattern will blast the lower 48 with warmth without blocking.
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If there won’t be any snow I’d rather it be warm. Nothing worse than wasted cold. That’s why the 19-20 winter wasn’t so terrible to me. Very little wasted cold, just wall to wall warm. The worst for me are the ones where there are rainy warm cutters that are frigid behind the cold front, then keep repeating.
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Quick flights from Tokyo to L.A. at least. Plane likely barely uses any gas.
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Sometimes I wish we could accelerate continental drift and close the Pacific off.
