jm1220

I just drove up Rt 231 from Babylon to Jericho Tpke and Sunrise Highway east from Wantagh. The whole area from Seaford to Babylon to around the LIE got slammed. I definitely believe the 20+ totals there. Amounts decreased a little in Dix Hills and a little more by the time you get to my house. It looks almost dead on like after the 2/1 storm last year which was 15” for me, so that’s probably what I got this time here. Looks a little more overall than Long Beach has but there was a lot more drifting there. Some lawns there are bare, some clogged in snow so I think 12” for Long Beach is good. Tomorrow I’ll drive down Vets Highway past MacArthur to Patchogue and really salivate.

Maybe maybe not. A stronger overrunning wave will push it north. But at this lead time the cold air might not be showing up as well as it would be at the surface. This would be a nasty ice storm for a pretty wide area if this setup stays as is.

I wouldn’t mind sleet at all this time. It’ll get pounded into the snowpack and freeze it into cement.

I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere.

I definitely believe the ice storm potential somewhere with a huge high and overrunning coming in from the south. Hopefully it can nose south a little more so we get snow/sleet or stays north and it rains. I have no interest in 0.5" of ice that would create huge power issues.

Atlantic City-incredible. 3 significant winter storms for them this month. For the season I probably have about 25” in Huntington Station.

The bickering is ridiculous, like hurts my eyeballs to look at ridiculous.

Elmont 17.3”, I’m calling BS on that one. Orient 25”,’ wow, but they were sitting under that final band for hours. There are probably lots of 20-25” in the Hamptons and N Fork.

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.

And I guarantee next storm there will be 1000 Kuchera maps shown. Those should be banned. I warned countless times that those were BS. Even my 12-1 assumption was too weenie. There are places on the Island for sure where 20+ happened but it was due to dynamics and flake size within those bands, not the way Kuchera shows (I think it's assuming a ratio based on the highest temp 700mb to the ground). For hours this AM and afternoon it was probably moderate intensity in Long Beach but we had crap tiny flakes. The last sound enhanced snow burst may have been another inch just because we had dendrites again and wind died down. Avoid Kuchera maps in a nor'easter.

JFK ended with 12.6". LGA 10.5", ISP 24.7", Central Park 8.3", Newark 7.7", BDR 10.5". NWSChat - NOAA's National Weather Service

I don't. It just really sucks still that I missed it and I shall never again. I left LB to move to Austin 6 days before Juno 2015 hit and that wasn't bad here, probably a little better than this event. Leave it at that lol. Might have been Long Beach's all timer and my brother who was home then (now lives in West Palm Beach, FL and his weather concern tonight is falling iguanas lol, he also hates snow and winter weather) was gobsmacked by it. The photos from LB were unreal and I knew it had to be at least 24" and that was after some probably settled/melted.

NYC got fringed today relatively so you sorta got your wish lol. But if it went how it “should” have went maybe the death band would have gone west of the city. Boston and SE MA were good to go for days with this one other than the lol GFS. NYC is the toughest city in the Northeast to forecast for by far with almost any coastal winter storm because of how many ways it can go wrong but right with a 50 mile shift. El Niño juiced Miller As will always bury DC but may fringe NYC and could like 2/6/10 get confluence crushed south by 30 miles. But Jan 2016’s El Niño monster is Central Park’s #1 because of a very late tick north (which I missed because I was living in TX at the time). Storms like today’s, 2/8/13, Juno 2015 NYC is on the SW end and can miss the action. But 1/4/18, Lindsey Storm 1969 and 12/30/00 it worked out amazingly. We don’t have a wheelhouse storm type like Boston or DC have. We pick and choose lol.

It was me to a lesser extent today. Band started forming over me and that’s partly what buried Islip. I have 8” less than 10-15 miles NE of me.

12-13” of snow where I am is not a fail by any means, and it looks like an all timer at Islip. Long Island had an awesome event. But have to wonder what would’ve been. The people who have to really complain are CT. Logan may have way jumped over Central Park because of the dumbbell!! (Who knows but something to think about)

He was honking that the trend on the crazy 0z NAM (6z NAM was even crazier) probably wasn’t done as the 500 low closed further SW. 12z NAM and others began the double barrel/dumbbell and so we have what happened.

Good thing the dumbbell double low happened in the end for you guys. If it didn’t Forky would’ve been right.

This was impressive but nothing like Jan 2018 in Long Beach. That was about 6 hours of complete awesomeness. About what I imagine it was like in Lindenhurst, Holbrook and Commack this morning lol.

Pretty sure there was more than 10” there. I’m not there now so can’t say but it should be evident tomorrow when I drive back. And I’ll have to make a detour through second jackpot zone in Lindenhurst/Babylon on the way lol.

Absolutely. Regardless of how it evolved this was an awesome event.

I had 20” from that one so at least a half foot less.

A poster here measured 17.5” in Dix Hills a few pages back lol. @psv88in Commack also had 17.5. It’s why I didn’t attempt anything at a measurement here in Long Beach today because of the drifts. It seemed a little less to me than we had on 1/4/18 where we had 15”. That’s mainly what I went on lol. Half of outside of my house has little snow and the other half has 2-3 or so foot drifts.

This probably would’ve been another Boxing Day 2010 type outcome without that convective way out to sea low (and it somewhat did-coastal Monmouth and Ocean did very well). So yeah someone should’ve taken my advice about dumping the ice, nitro, whatever to stop the convection lol. Forky wasn’t kidding when he said it should’ve kept trending west with the upper air evolution improving as it kept doing. The offshore low strung everything out. So maybe for me it’s a wash. The crazy banding went east of me with how it evolved today, it would’ve been over NJ with how it “should” have evolved.

I mean I don’t know for sure but I suspect it and models showed it. They had the big QPF max just east of NJ and before it could come into NYC the convective eastern low forced the Fujiwara movement. We had the insane NAM and UKMET runs with the one consolidated low that went away fast as the far eastern low took over.