jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Stuck at 35 since the front went through. For most of us except well NW this will be a dodged bullet.
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If winter ended now I’d give it a C/C-. Cold and snowy January but normal is still 8-9 more inches here (have about 24”, average is 32-33” here). December was a disaster. Hopefully Feb can have some snowy periods to get us above average.
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Yep. We got down to 35 here and that seems to be it for now. Temps north of here are above freezing for a good distance. Snow coverage here down to mostly piles in any exposed area. My backyard is covered but looks very sad lol. Big melt/slush pool on one side. It got wrecked.
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So far there’s a good lag in getting the temp below 35 or so east of the city. Temps in SW CT are sticking at around 33-35.
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Down almost immediately to 40 here. That was quick. But we’ll see how fast it keeps going down to below 32.
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Next question will be how fast we can get below freezing behind the front. That’s lagging a bit. SW CT behind the front is still above freezing. Freezing line looks to be roughly the Tappan Zee Bridge.
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Can also see the front advancing pretty clearly on the OKX and DIX radars.
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Huge temp gradient already showing up on Long Island. 36 in Bayville, still 50 here maybe 15 miles away.
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Temp still 50 here. Snowpack survived overnight in my yard for the most part but some bare patches appearing.
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That’s insane. I had way less than Boston but still way more than that left lol.
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Looks about the same here. Bare patches growing pretty quickly though. The one thing that could make it worse for snow retention is if there was a stronger wind. I’d imagine down in Long Beach there’s not much left.
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About 6-7” on average down here, some exposed spots are bare. It’s resilient because of the water content but I doubt there’s much left by the time we go below freezing again.
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Not too worried about the city and near the coast anymore. The boundary has slowly been delayed in getting here on the models today and GFS just delayed it again and removes most precip after it. Could there be a glaze-sure, but the real ice threat will be north of the city. Lots of rain and unfortunately snow melt before. Most of us other than the really crushed spots will be down to piles by the time the cold gets here again. Next 24 hours with high humidity will eat it right up.
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Any amount of ice is an issue but over 0.3” or so can create real problems and is at the point where tree limbs start to break. Hopefully that’s overdone. If the precip is light it might create more of a problem actually. Lighter rain is more likely to freeze on contact vs heavy rain much of which would run off at temps above 28 or so.
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Hopefully we get to a situation where it’s cold rain that doesn’t melt much snow and it all freezes at the end. I think the collapse south to where it’s sleet is unlikely unless you’re up near I-84. I wouldn’t weigh the Nam too heavily pretty much ever.
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I’ve always thought of the eastern half of LI as being more similar to New England climo wise-like Cape Cod than Mid Atlantic but it’s still part of the NYC metro area. So who knows.
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So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it.
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You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above 850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing.
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Not unheard of. I remember Valentines Day 2007 was an ice storm on the south shore and sleet in NYC and north shore. Very fickle so hopefully the cold surface air is thicker. Where the main precip slug coincides with a below freezing shallow layer, there’ll be big trouble in this event I think.
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The main precip slug seems to be lagging a bit on the models as well which gives more time for the high and cold air to press down.
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Wow, I agree that was a concerning Euro run. Hard to say right now what will happen around NYC. I’m a little concerned where I am because as far as Long Island goes, I’m in one of the coldest spots in general. Hopefully this can keep trending colder so that it’s sleet. Would add plenty of density to the snow and make it last a lot longer.
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UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end.
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Seems like it’s getting a little warmer? I won’t be thrilled but I’ll gladly take the rain over a crippling ice storm that would knock power out for hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it can be a cold rain that won’t knock the snow cover out. I think the greatest odds at the ice storm will be just NW of the city and it’ll end up a little warmer but it can’t be ruled out in the immediate city/metro.
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Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.
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It would take a lot going right for there to be snow down to NYC with this. There’s cold at the surface but a nasty warm layer above from the warm air being lifted in the overrunning. I think the ice storm makes sense here but the question is where. Probably the first time ever I’m rooting for the sleet storm. It’ll make the snowpack way denser and bulletproof.
