jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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We want the southern stream cooperating to some extent. If it gets left behind like that it'll maybe end up a Cape grazer and blow up for downeast ME.
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I’d gladly sign for that. Epic amounts were a bit east of MBY but it was probably 18-20” here. Again it’s way too early to nail down an outcome.
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That’s really nice. Lots of big time outcomes for 95% of us. Shows the range of outcomes well. None go west of LI which is encouraging at this stage.
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Deformation axis runs from NYC area through central New England. It develops well aloft so it can transport snow a good bit west of the track. It would be high ratio snow too. It’s not stunted like the UK has it.
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The storm itself is likely due to the agreement on the models at this point but the track is anyone’s guess. The Euro was a very slight change from being even more of a bomb for our area. But it easily could be too much of a good thing and it phases early/tries to hug the coast.
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For Boston or anywhere I’d just say “chance at a significant coastal storm for Saturday” and not mention precip types. Still a few days before worrying about rain or snow. Euro is a very nice solution but gets going a hair too late for the huge totals in our area. It might be holding back a little too much energy in the SW which might mean it gets going faster.
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It’s not impossible at all to get 18-24” or even more (not saying this storm would do it) with a fast mover. 2-3”/hr adds up fast. 2/7/13 lasted 12 hours or so and had 30” in central Suffolk County.
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We want this to really start getting going east of NJ or close to our latitude. If it goes off too soon it’ll want to hug the coast and we get something like the GGEM. Of course too late/progressive is another option and it grazes the Cape.
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I wouldn’t be “scared” of anything yet, way too early. But any outcome is really possible here. I guess the hugger/inland scenario is a little less likely because of the trough orientation but that can’t be ruled out either if the storm bombs like crazy early on. We really have a couple more days before we can start to hone in on the outcome. But it’s high risk/high reward for sure. If it comes together right this will be a big time event with the amount of energy to work with along with the warm Atlantic relatively unscathed due to the lack of nor’easters so far this winter.
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Flurries here now, dusting since last night.
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Flurries here now, dusting of new snow from overnight.
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Yes plenty of time for trends to continue one way or the other and I wouldn’t get invested in one outcome or another yet. Small shifts can put this back out to sea or have it trend to a hugger. Yes it can keep trending to a hugger if the trough keeps amplifying and because we have little/no blocking here. For me at this point I’m happy to see the OTS trend reversing. And for whoever it does affect it could be a massive impact system. If it’s still showing a big coastal impact by Wed night, I’d get a lot more excited. But this season is too chaotic to be at this point.
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Yep, this year at this range I couldn’t care less.
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Something not terribly far from that verified once already this winter so why not again? Sun night’s storm dumped a foot of snow in W NC and mostly rain here. When whatever this is gets within 72 hours and it looks like a good threat I’ll pay attention. Way too much chaos from the fast pattern this year. Suppressed garbage like today/tomorrow is always another possibility if there’s a kicker or missed phase.
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I’m fine with it warming up if it won’t snow regardless. I hate cold and dry. And now we get to watch the VA Tidewater maybe be the next area down south to overtake us in annual snow. Yay!
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The only places this winter that are really doing well snow wise are parts of the mid-Atlantic/South and out west where the Pacific vomited all over in Dec. At least we’re not suffering alone.
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0.5” here. I was hoping the snow could hang on a while longer but it lightened up and as with every other system sped east. 9.5” for the season.
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Last bit of light snow here. Sky beginning to brighten. At least it looks nice outside again and it’ll be sticking around.
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Coming down at a decent clip and radar looks okay for the next hour or so. We did waste precip as rain and temps near 40 and it seems like the precip in general is lighter than thought a couple days ago so hopefully we walk away with 1-2. It’ll freeze solid on whatever does get accums.
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Light snow. Surfaces coated.
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A few mangled flakes mixing in, otherwise light rain still.
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Light rain here. 37
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My first and probably only post about this suppressed garbage event. Once again looks like too many ducks on the pond/interference and the storm can’t amplify so it stays suppressed garbage. It’s impossible to count on anything over 72 hours out this winter because of the very progressive pattern. This is a take what you can get winter with lots of frustration. Hopefully the end of this month/Feb can turn it around.
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The fast pattern also means lots of interference with vorts that interact and prevent amplification or force amplification to an extent that the storm rides inland like the last one. Too many ducks on the pond.
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Should be a decent snow event for most of us that will do enough to lay the white carpet down for much colder air. Always nice when you have some snow cover to welcome in an arctic airmass that can overperform due to snow cover, and just to have the snow to make it more wintery. Could be 3-5” where it’s all/mostly snow and it comes down moderate for a few hours.
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