jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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With the last minor ice event it was 31 and accreting pretty efficiently with little snow left from the 1/29 storm here but that was with light precip. Heavier precip will tend to run off.
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RGEM looked essentially the same to me. Be careful about the freezing rain output, it's likely overdone. Any precip as rain 32 or below it'll show as ZR (won't all accrete) and it assumes all precip that hour will be ZR. Of course it won't take much ZR for major problems though. A lot of that ZR it shows will hopefully be sleet.
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For a shot at more snow we have to watch the primary and hope it dies off sooner, and the associated mid level lows-hopefully those weaken. That will slow the mid level warm push. But it's a very long shot at it being more than an hour or so at the start. The real chance we have is for it to be more sleet and for the surface warm push to wait until the dryslot is here.
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Getting there but still a ways to go before being at consensus. Still spikes most of us from the Tappan Zee on south into the 40s on Fri because of how dominant the primary is/where the secondary forms. But that would be in the dryslot after 95% of precip falls. Verbatim it would be a few inches of slop that would freeze solid on Fri night.
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The Nam is different aloft with its evolution, especially with the S/W so far north which moves all the features north. It’s probably too amped but the Euro is probably too cold. I’ve seen it before with SWFEs be too cold. But again no one should be shocked at late 50 mile shifts with this. These usually tick north at the end. For NYC it’s really all about how soon and where the secondary pops for the surface wind direction. It could be all sleet if we avoid an onshore wind.
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This has been pretty well forecast for days now. There’ll be 50 mile or so shifts at this range for any system but it’s been clear for several days this would be a crud/slop system for NYC and heavy snow well north. Not much anxiety with this one unlike the 1/29 storm/blizzard for LI.
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I’d bet it’s too cold in this setup. I think the best hope the city has is that it can stay all sleet instead of a period where it turns to rain or ZR. The warm mid level air is often under modeled in SWFEs and I’ve seen the Euro be too cold in these before. But it’s possible the coastal low can develop a little sooner and prevent the surface from warming above freezing. Mid levels though will be too late.
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66 here. Downright balmy. Merrick Rd seems to be the balmy to just mild line. Barrier islands are in the mid 50s.
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Pretty much anyone along I-90 should be good for well over 6”. The best place to be may be eastern Mass since they could get some enhancement from the Atlantic. This is a Boston bread and butter storm where it could mix with a little sleet at the end but by then damage is more than done.
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Upton seems to have 2-5" outside the watch area which might be a little aggressive. I don't see anyone south of I-84 getting over 5" but the watch extends down to just N of NYC and the immediate CT coast. Where I am and most of NYC it'll probably be 2-3" of crud partly washed away at the end and the south shore/I-78 an inch or two that gets washed away at the end.
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For mid level temps I’d use the NAM or other meso models. GFS is normally too cold there. And as others pointed out the warm layer in these events is often above 850mb so you can’t rely on that for snow/sleet line.
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Wow, poor Boston if this becomes mainly NNE for snow. Some sleet would be good I guess but I’m fine with a washout if it means no ice storm and snow is out of the question.
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Once in a blue moon we can pull a decent SWFE out of the hat but these are usually easy ones to call for around NYC. Sloppy mess to rain, more icy inland where cold surface air holds on, up near I-90 gets the real snow.
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Those are overdone. Pretty sure it assumes any liquid that falls at 32 or below will accrete (not happening if it’s moderate or heavier precip) and all the precip over that hour will be freezing rain. The FRAM charts are more accurate.
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Definitely a better winter where I am but overall the places that jackpotted last winter are getting skunked. Now we’re entering a more typical Nina pattern where New England gets the SWFE goods. Hopefully I can get one more decent event to get me above average. I have 29” and average 32” or so. Last winter I had 42-43”.
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Interesting trends so far tonight. Hopefully the colder outcomes happen and we don't see the usual bump north with SWFEs at the end. I don't buy it being more than 2-3" of snow to start around the city but it can be that to a ton of sleet and then a drizzly dry slot. If you're north of 84 you're still in a good shot at 6+.
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I can actually see it not changing to plain rain for NYC and much of LI until perhaps the end or as a dry slot comes in. By that I mean there’s plenty of sleet and some ZR but it’s cold enough to start to keep it non-rain. Unfortunately for snow you want to be in Boston or north of 84. That’s been the case for days and won’t be changing much.
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If there’s no mechanism to bring warm surface air in from the ocean, from an E or SE wind, it’s hard to see how we go above freezing. If the cold NE wind stays for the storm I think most of us would stay sleet or go to sleet/ZR. For snow though since the mid levels usually warm up faster than modeled at this stage and the tracks are lousy for us, you’d want to be north of I-84 or preferably along I-90.
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Some models are showing a heavy ZR area near the city and north shore especially. RGEM would be an ice storm warning level event.
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It’s at the time of year where urban heat island will hurt, and the cold air is generally coming from the NE, so this is a rare setup where it can snow more on the Forks than NYC.
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Yep, starting to look like it could be pretty dicey especially the northern half of the city and LI north of the LIE. I’m still not expecting much snow but could be prolonged sleet instead if the surface front can stay offshore.
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But so far. It’s the story with 90% of SWFEs here. I-90 is the spot for this one. The real questions for us are how much is sleet vs rain and can we get an hour or so good snow to start.
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Well no, but this is a fairly easy one to call for us. Hopefully the few hour thump to start but expect the sleet and rain to dry slot. NYC can cash in on any setup, Miller A El Niño event like Jan 2016, Miller B event like 12/30/00 or the events last winter or 2/25/10, but we also get the lousy end of all of the above if the confluence is too strong or too weak or etc. We have no bread and butter event like Boston or DC. NYC is the toughest I-95 megalopolis city to forecast for during winter.
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Yes-it was an overrunning event for the first part on 12/5 that was supposed to be maybe 1-2” to rain, and it ended up being the best part of the overall event around NYC. The rain line got to around Sandy Hook and stopped dead. The coastal storm redevelopment on 12/6 did a lot better in Suffolk County and there were parts that had 20” overall. Long Beach had 12-13” I think. 8” from 12/5, 4-5” from 12/6 because the coastal storm hammered Suffolk County.
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Onshore flow isn’t a killer this time of year I’ll say that. VD 2007 would have been a washout for the city on east if it was 12/14 any winter.
