jm1220

Use the 10-1 maps for something like this. There isn’t going to be 40” snow in Toms River.

Yeah, really hope it has a clue here. Even if you adjust it 50 miles east it would still be a beast for NYC area and LI/CT/Jersey shore. Looks like if anything it came west from 0z with the banding.

I wouldn’t go with Kuchera maps but to me it looks about the same as 0z if not a little better? 10-1 map was well over a foot from NYC east, 20”+ from roughly me on east. Lows close off and go boom in a great spot which would send heavy snow well to the west.

Impossible to say right now, we still have over a full day to nail it down. We just have to hope as much energy phases into the developing storm as early as possible. Others have pointed out that the ridge east of these is often under modeled at this stage which would be good as well and force it closer to the coast. I don’t think anyone is out of it completely but well N&W has always had the most to need right out of anyone.

I don’t know what “our” means but if you mean for well N&W I’d agree that this isn’t the kind of setup that favors them. For NYC it’s definitely not over and minor adjustments west on the guidance generally will put them in the game for significant to major amounts. Suffolk County is prime for major amounts. Last night’s Euro was about perfect for NYC and east, along with the Jersey shore with the track and where the lows closed off but we need that to continue and not keep trending NE. Where everything maxed out definitely did come NE from 18z and 12z. This is a setup that favors eastern areas and New England. That’s just how it is with where the different features are located and track of the storm. There’s a little more leeway in New England for a later phase or something of a progressive trend. It definitely doesn’t mean though that it’s “over” for a major storm near NYC.

GFS definitely got better. For the prime impacts you want the upper air lows to close off over or before your area. That’s why New England does better. The lows close off 6hrs sooner-so does NYC in this setup.

Ehh. As far as I'm concerned we're still in "there'll be a significant storm somewhere but who knows where it'll hit" mode. Frustrating that we have this much divergence again but hopefully the Euro holds in an hour and the east models come back west. Keep hopes in check because here they sometimes get blown up. Like I said we all have way too many battle scars from tracking to ultimately see it fail.

Yes, as always with this type of system. Sometimes they work out like 1/4/18, sometimes they don't like 1/27/15 (Suffolk County was rocked).

Can't speak for how that's gone this winter but I think that's been fixed in the last upgrade (last winter it was called the v16).

Nothing less here. Always a nailbiter on the W side of these.

Canadian not a huge change to me, went a little west. Goes just inside the B/M and runs into the outer Cape. Would be a good hit for just about everyone, biggie east of NYC. I'm not that concerned about the GFS at this point. It's been pretty inconsistent overall.

I've seen the RGEM make huge swings pretty early this winter already on other storms so it doesn't worry me. Then again the NAM's at the end of its run and we're drooling all over it. Bottom line is we still have a ways to go.

I highly doubt at this point anyone has to worry about mixing. There were maybe 2 Euro EPS members (most amped model) that would make it a concern out of 51.

It’s the Nam but the trend toward a faster southern stream and better phase is what makes all the difference. And that happens early enough in the run that hopefully it’s not clueless-where the major hit comes from starts early in the run. I think if that continues this can round the turn soon enough to be a major event for the majority of us.

That would be ummm….. awesome for this whole sub forum if it verified. Next 2-3 panels would be obliteration.

Crazy for this lead time.

I’m hoping that’s been fixed to an extent but it’s always a concern. These big ocean storms often trend east a little at the end. I certainly hope the Euro’s not that overdone and we see other models trend toward it.

Big cluster showing a bomb south of Montauk. Those would probably be 20”+ for most of us.

I think the GFS was getting there but the evolution of it was a little too progressive. Upper air lows close off a little too late for people west of Suffolk County. We want a slowed down amped evolution like the Euro.

I definitely agree. There’ll be a heck of an easterly moist feed into the storm from the warmer than average Atlantic. I can see there being a couple of death bands with a few inches per hour. Great upper level dynamics too as the lows close off to maximize lift.

I wouldn't put specific amounts out until tomorrow evening and just note "potential for a significant winter storm is increasing for Saturday" etc and that what we get is most likely to be snow. There'll probably be a big have/have-not difference like these storms normally give, NYC is in a tight spot like in most storms and hyping big amounts up can still backfire. There's still time tomorrow night or Thu or even Fri to discuss big amounts if models continue the trends. I remember the debacle around the 2/8/13 storm and the insane NAM run Channel 4 literally put up on screen, and the Armageddon like hype before 1/27/15. It really does make people less likely to pay attention before one really does hit. That said I have no idea what Lee Goldberg or anyone else is saying since I don't watch them anyway.

For those who want to nitpick, the upper air lows don't close off soon enough for many of us so the heavy snow is forced east somewhat. Euro closes them off much sooner. But overall a significant move toward the Euro.

GFS is getting there and trending toward the euro. Again all I really care about at this point.

18z RGEM is taking way longer to phase the southern stream in and has the low further east. Take that for what it's worth too (not much).

It's the 84hr NAM. I like the idea of it bringing the energy east faster. That's all I take from it.