jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Models are pretty much irrelevant for what’s going on. Today was a complete bust obviously and from here on it’s likely the climo storms develop over the Hudson Valley/NJ and we get a few drops left over from what can survive east of the city. Drought continues/worsens, keep watering.
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More likely I get 3-5 additional drops. West of the city probably does better where convection often pops up in the summer. Whenever any front comes through is probably my area’s next real chance.
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Where you live in NJ I’d be more optimistic that daily convection can fire up but if we’re just on a southerly flow each day it’ll amount to very little east of the city. If nothing happens with this system today (becoming likely), this likely becomes a bust near the coast where onshore winds kill off any convection. For NJ/E PA though the daily convection can definitely produce if not widespread
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So much for tropical dews helping us. Mid levels are bone dry and confluence destroyed everything. There’s another wave later today that might bring us something but if not we need to rely on southerly flow to generate rain here when 95% of the time it just results in scattered storms inland over NJ that die out before they can reach us near the coast. This can easily be a bust setup here with just lots of clouds for days.
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Endless easterly flow in one direction or other.
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If we’re relying just on the southerly flow, it would definitely favor inland areas as that’s where convection easily fires away from any marine layer. Where I am and immediate coast we need this system for tomorrow to produce otherwise it will be a bust.
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NAM’s not even a quarter inch for us east of the city and nails E PA/NJ. Thankfully other models including the GFS are much wetter. Euro is also quite wet.
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Good. Definitely can still use it.
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Times like this I'm glad I don't live there anymore and have to deal with that. Any heat we get-a summer down there is absolute hell. And the years I was there-2015 and 16, the horrendous summer was bookended by record rain and flooding in both May 2015 and Oct. I did pick an interesting weather time to be there.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Excellent analysis as always. NYC is in a spot where the Miller A El Nino storms can slam us (1/25/16) but also completely rip us off by a hair like 2/6/10, and the late bloomer Miller B's same thing-12/30/00, Lindsay Storm 1969 vs Juno 2015 and the Jan 2022 storm. Maybe we trend to a place where we have to rely on favorable El Nino patterns like DC now and Boston becomes the "hedge both ways" climate we have as the storm tracks head north, and generally become warmer? No doubt as there's more moisture available in a warmer climate and there is still enough cold air for snow, Northern New England and probably Northern Midwest would benefit. We've been stuck in a Nina like background state for the last few years due in large part to the crazy warm W PAC, wonder if that can switch this year. Any background Nina state is bad for us unless there's some compensating factor like a -NAO, although this "winter" was so horrible that was blown away too. Pendulums swing eventually and our good stretch of winters up to 2015-16 was bound to reverse. Now it's the West/upper Midwest turn I guess. The "variable" aspect of snowfall is I assume due to the lack of smaller 2-4" type clipper systems that would hit back in the 80s-into the 90s, now it's these all or nothing patterns that are by nature variable. The endless cutters/SWFE the background Nina state gives us might've been a couple/few inches on the front end to rain 50 years ago vs just rain now, but I remember when there were at least several decent clippers per winter, 2003-04 was the year of those clippers and they're gone now. -
S NJ will do well because it always does these days, people east of the city will be waiting for what convection can survive once it hits the water. Rinse (or not since many of us are bone dry) and repeat. Doesn’t matter what any meso model says which will flip on its head next run anyway.
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Another heavy shower. Maybe 0.33” or so for the day.
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South Jersey Alley.
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Decent rain made it here-consolidated a little. It’ll be over in 2 min but nice to see enough for there to be a puddle at least and rinse off my car.
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Maybe a shot with this heavy rain coming toward Jones Beach but most likely skunked again as it hits the places east of me that have been getting hit. Had a 20 second shower with thunder before.
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Whatever can make this more than a 1 minute ground dampener I’m all for.
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Half decent rain coming down. Maybe we can luck out to 0.4” or so.
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Over the top heat is the norm the last few summers. Bermuda High keeps getting displaced 300+ miles north so we get S or SE onshore wind vs SW. Meanwhile Quebec roasts where the fires are starting up.
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Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that.
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The ULL over the Maritimes is shifting enough to start driving the smoke further west and shifting enough to not let it funnel like it’s been doing straight from the source-disperse it more. But what helps us probably hurts for the OH Valley, Great Lakes etc. Also their fire season is just beginning. We need a good westerly flow pattern to keep it away, not this cutoff/maritime garbage pattern that might bring it right back. Whatever the actual AQI here, yesterday was horrendous. I have no breathing problem but I was coughing and eyes stinging after not even 30 seconds in it.
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Hideous. I felt my eyes stinging after 20-30 seconds in this stuff and scratchy throat. The winds this afternoon didn't help. And it's still high 200s-300s around here. Really hope tomorrow's better.
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Freeport schools closed tomorrow too.
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Smoke got into the school buildings and people felt ill. Some buildings also have no/little air conditioning. And even though it might be better tomorrow, it’s a better safe than sorry situation.
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Long Beach schools closed tomorrow. Probably more to come.
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Feels like a fall day with how it keeps out the insolation. You can see where it starts to get better just by where the cumulus starts to bubble again to the north.
