jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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We had a frontal boundary go by overnight which organized the storms. Notice how at JFK winds shifted from south to north overnight. We just struck out again on where the storms organized. We can still get heavy rain when there’s some synoptic feature to generate lift.
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I’m all for it. Get the low clouds/maritime gunk out of here if nothing else interesting happens anyway.
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There’s a frontal boundary/wave that’s helping to organize convection. It fired up in time for them but of course missed us (not the first time in the last few days). We can still get heavy rain/storms when we have a front or system to organize convection especially elevated convection.
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The next drought monitor and probably few to come will show a crazy gradient between moderate to possible severe drought here and no drought west of I-95.
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More than I thought. I was hoping at least some activity could survive east of the Hudson. There’s been nothing but some random shower clusters and Sunday with a few storms that fired on the sea breeze front.
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Yup. We’ve been stuck in marine layer gunk low clouds for days. We need some kind of synoptic system to get much rain until the waters get warmer. Or for the storms to come on a westerly flow which negates the marine layer. These southerly flow patterns may be humid but help the drought here.
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Worse than I thought lol. This outcome is hilarious.
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You have to laugh at this point.
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Depressing.
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Light rain in Melville.
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Zippo again. Maybe a brief shower but now everything’s well east. Until something organized can get together and charge east/north we’re screwed here in this pattern. And even those attempts have failed 2-3 times now.
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Maybe we have a shot with one of these MCS developing and surviving overnight. Not counting on it though. The storms in Suffolk are 30-40 miles or so east of me.
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There could be a random shower cluster like we had this morning but we have zero shot at anything like NJ’s getting.
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Should just have the map zoom in and have any threat go to zero across the Hudson, maybe a little to the east. Maybe there’s a tiny chance some MCS feature can survive east of the city but otherwise our odds here are none with this stuff over NJ now. That area’s been favored for days and the models a few days ago showing widespread 2-4”+ for the whole metro were trash. We normally have a coastal drought pattern in the summer but this is ridiculous.
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It’s marine layer humid gunk that will keep us having to water. Maybe we luck out with a dying shower or two. The action as is is headed due north or just NNE.
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Definite rotation near Belvedere, NJ.
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You’re likely good. Other than the shower this AM the rain is focusing on where it’s been the last 2-3 days. We keep watering and sweating.
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South Jersey Alley always produces these days. Full on south shore drought pattern here. Maybe at home on the north shore I’ll luck out one day with a sea breeze front storm/shower. Otherwise just disgusting humidity.
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It is foggy right on the beach/boardwalk but my mom’s house by the bay is clear. Nice thunderhead with the Great Neck storm.
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No fog here in Long Beach today but I can see towering cumulus to the north on the sea breeze front. Looks like some storms firing near Syosset.
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Daily convection doesn’t favor our area because the marine layer kills it, the first wave was squashed by confluence and the one overnight looks like it went too far east/otherwise failed for most when just about every model had heavy rain. Like I said I’m not following what any model says. Until the heavy rain is on my doorstep I wouldn’t expect anything. If we keep this same pattern for a while maybe one of these waves can develop a MCS or something that can rain here eventually but I’d expect the bulk of any rain to be over NJ/E PA/Hudson Valley.
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Hope you’re right. Does look nice for now. Looks like a small wave is developing along the upper low and swinging the rain north.
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Keep watering!
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Couldn’t really care less what any model shows. Unless it’s an organized/synoptic type system coming I doubt much happens east of the Hudson from here. Maybe some showers off and on. We’re more likely to get some decent rain when a front finally comes through and even that might get squashed by any marine layer. W of the city and Hudson Valley might do well though in the moist environment and daily chances for convection.
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From the confluence brick wall to the Hudson River brick wall.
