Indystorm

That was fast BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 618 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 618 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINROSS, OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIGOURNEY, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WELLMAN AROUND 625 PM CDT. KALONA AROUND 645 PM CDT. UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS, HILLS AND OAKDALE AROUND 700 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, FRYTOWN, WINDHAM, AMISH, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, HOLBROOK, COSGROVE AND SHARON CENTER.

I now see that northern MO has been placed under a tornado watch till midnight central time.

Storms beginning to fire around Macomb and in ne MO radar hole area. Wondering if northern MO will be put under a tornado watch for storms approaching from KC or for development farther east.

Latest SPC update Farther north, isolated supercells should also persist within warm advection zone across IL. This activity could develop a bit north into the early evening as warm front advances into southern WI/southern Lake MI. ..Darrow.. 05/24/2019 Must have stronger confidence than I do that the WF will surge north.

Ya, that WF position makes me a little nervous for central IN later on today.

73/62 IKK and se wind with new cells popping south of I-74 in advance of the tornado warned cell.

Think the location of svr as always depends on where that WF lines up geographically but Chicago web page is expecting svr storms in the 4-7 p.m. time frame in their area and then overnight.

I am always leery of the possibility of warm front tornadoes ever since the Utica IL tornado, especially now that one has been confirmed along the front. Havanna IL will be in its sights if it is on the ground or cycles.

Do think the main threat for all of you under the overnight tor watch in IL and nw In will be damaging winds from svr lines. Good luck. I'm off to bed.

Look what is forming this evening from northern IN westward across northern IL into IA. Maybe those mesoscale models that predicted training west to east t storms overnight are going to be correct in spite of the MCS that rolled through the area earlier today.

Svr watch issued till 9 eastern time to the south and east of the earlier watch.

LaSalle county EMA reported a tornado near Sheridan IL.

Mesoscale Discussion 0638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Illinois and Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161709Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm development is currently being maintained near a southward advancing cold pool, to the southwest of the Chicago area. It is not certain how long this will persist this afternoon, but there is at least some potential for further intensification and organization which could require a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air is in the process of advecting across the mid/lower Missouri Valley, toward portions of the Upper Midwest, around the northern periphery of amplified ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies. Along the leading edge of this air mass, a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is maintaining vigorous thunderstorm development, which may be also increasingly forced by lift above an associated surface cold pool. This appears to be occurring in the presence of modest (30+ kt) west-northwesterly deep layer mean flow. The influence of a 30-40 kt west-southwesterly 850 mb speed maximum nosing east of the Mississippi River may contribute to more of a southward propagation near and west of the Illinois/Indiana state border area through 18-20Z. While this track will be increasingly into weak mid-level height rises, mid/upper ridging and weaker flow aloft, the boundary layer ahead of the southwestern flank of the outflow continues to gradually moisten across much of central Illinois. Additional boundary layer warming and moistening may contribute to weakening inhibition for boundary layer parcels with CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. Thus, while it remains unclear if synoptic forcing for ascent will maintain ongoing convection this afternoon, it appears at least possible that mesoscale processes will, with subsequent further intensification and organization possible. This probably would be accompanied by increasing potential for strong winds at least approaching severe limits along a strengthening gust front. ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/16/2019

HRRR looking rather volatile across northern/northeastern IL late tomorrow afternoon and evening with even the possibility of a tornado. Will have to see what SPC thinks for the day one update and watch how things progress on Thursday. This of course is dependent upon no MCS crashing the environment earlier in the day. This evening's NAM is also rather interesting for the same time period.

The ERTAF researchers are talking about the period from May 19-25 in tonight's outlook as being synoptically similar to historically significant May tornado outbreaks.

That could happen, and the ERTAF crew thinks that May 19 to 25 will be prime from the Plains eastward to IL/IN/ western Ohio. "The synoptic scale will be supportive of a regime analogous to historical significant tornadoes in May."

Two EF-1 tornadoes confirmed in Jennings County IN by the NWS on April 25 despite no prior thoughts of svr wx impacting the area. Goes to show how quickly things can change.

I'm wondering if this cell about to cross the MS river into IL south of St. Louis is following some sort of quasi warm front where winds are somewhat backed. Helicity is rather low but shear is good. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 610 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 609 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BLOOMSDALE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND MEDIA REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORT NEAR FRENCH VILLAGE. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... STE. GENEVIEVE AROUND 630 PM CDT. ST. MARY AROUND 640 PM CDT. CHESTER AROUND 645 PM CDT.

MOC186-187-242315- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190324T2315Z/ STE. GENEVIEVE MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO- 559 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN STE. GENEVIEVE AND NORTH CENTRAL ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES... AT 556 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONNE TERRE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LOCAL MEDIA AND COUNTY FIRE PERSONNEL CONTINUE TO REPORT A FUNNEL CLOUD SOUTHWEST OF FESTUS. TRAINED SPOTTERS ALSO REPORT GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BLOOMSDALE AND ROCKY RIDGE AROUND 615 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FRENCH VILLAGE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 528 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT. * AT 527 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CADET, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WASHINGTON COUNTY 911 RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A CONFIRMED TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BONNE TERRE AROUND 545 PM CDT. BLOOMSDALE AND ROCKY RIDGE AROUND 615 PM CDT.

Yes, we're getting some clearing in southern MO. Possibly the enhanced area will get some hailers like they had in OKC area yesterday.

Confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado over Columbus MS. City of 24,000 people

Confirmed tornado near Burnsville MS heading for Lauderdale county Alabama

Several svr storms breaking out now in Arkansas and MiS with one tor warned cell in Yazoo County and still no radar polygons for warnings. Not acceptable.

Warning that the Audubon Dam is about to fail just nw of Oxford Mississippi to impact areas downstream in North Point Subdivision