Indystorm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 520 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 519 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RED BAY, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUSSELLVILLE, RED BAY, PHIL CAMPBELL, BELGREEN, VINA, HODGES, MT HOPE, CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR, ATWOOD AND THARPTOWN.

Funnel cloud reported by spotters east of Baldwyn MS.

550/350 m2/s2 helicity in the area of that tor warned initial cell in ne MS. We are off to what might be a very dangerous evening.

90/80 probabilities for tornadoes on the PDS watch.

Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Southern TN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 191906Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued by 21z across portions of the Mid-South. A few strong tornadoes are possible in addition to large hail. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of mid-level drying/cooling is progressing across the MS Delta region at roughly 35kt. Over the next few hours lapse rates should adjust across western TN/northeast MS and deep convection is expected to expand in response to this feature. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for strong supercell development as boundary-layer moisture is advancing into northern MS/AL with mid 60s surface dew points now evident at TUP into Winston county AL. Early-day thunderstorm cluster that spread across northern MS is now into northern AL and this convection may impede deeper moisture surge into the Middle TN region. However, a well-defined and increasingly buoyant east-west boundary draped across northern MS/AL should provide a focus for potentially tornadic supercells. Shear profiles are becoming quite strong across this region and it appears discrete storms will evolve over the next few hours in response to approaching short-wave trough. Environmental parameters appear supportive of potentially long-track tornadoes and this will be addressed within the next few hours with a tornado watch.

Yes, on occasion pattern recognition and parameters are such that you can identify a potential significant event a week out. It is interesting that the normally conservative SPC would highlight this 7 days out.

DFW area now looking quite ominous for sig svr for Sunday evening with CAPE and helicity quite favorable per 18z GFS this Tuesday if it continues to hold and the first system gets out of the way.

Agree. NAM continues to emphasize a good threat for ne OK and sw MO Monday eve/night with parameters increasing in severity. NAM did better than the more progressive GFS on the Feb. 27/March 1 system so it certainly bears watching as we get closer. Springfield AFD beginning to express concern.

LSR's say trees and power lines down in Whitney area with 4-5 homes damaged, one without a roof.

Good couplet now showing up on NWS velocity radar.

Polygon warnings are not being displayed on NWS radars. HHave had this issue before. Not good when tornadic cells might be headed your way.

As Thundersnow posted the current parameters look very favorable for one of the best set ups we have yet seen this year if they come to fruition. Any analog mentioning 5/3/99 certainly has my attention.

I was thinking of saying this but afraid I'd get slammed. Better you than me. Good luck to all chasers out there in that time period!

Good research, Quincy, on your tornado forecast. I suppose it is always more difficult to forecast trends with tornadoes than what a hurricane season might look like as Dr. Gray at Colorado State and others have done well in advance. My concern for May at least with recent model runs is the apparent lack of a strong jet stream in the CONUS. That, of course, can change.

I wish I could give you a Pulitzer prize for web journalism for this historic thread for your outstanding documentation of this event from its inception through ongoing recovery.

Glad you made the transition OK Baroclinic Instability. Looking forward to your reports this winter. Tom Skilling loves to take Alaska vacations and talks frequently about it on WGN weather. Continue to drop in the Plains and Lakes forums when things get interesting down here. We certainly appreciate your expertise.

These commemorative articles and postings are informative and hopefully cathartic,JoMo. It is truly hard to believe that it has been a year and you have done a magnificent job preserving this record for posterity.

It is amazing to re-read this thread and so educational, particularly wrt model differences and what actually played out. I guess I was most surprised by the NAM and GFS catching the morning convection while the RUC totally missed it.

Sure beats the measly winter we had in much of the Midwest this past season. Dramatic early spring warmup and now freeze warnings that have orchard fruit growers in particular concern for apples and cherries in temps drop to 27 or 28 for awhile.

A medical team from the destroyed Mercy St. John's Hospital in Joplin is sharing their experiences here in my Michiana neck of the woods at South Bend Memorial Hospital and at a conference at Notre Dame. Good to learn disaster preparedness procedures for hospitals from those who were directly impacted. Good coverage of their visit by our local news media, especially since the recent tornados in Henryville IN and Dexter MI.

A blessed New Year to you and all those in Joplin. Glad that the church response went so well. Many religious denominations have well structured and experienced relief organizations. Glad you got your personal tornado shelter that exceeds requirements. Living in the Dunlap area of Elkhart with the 1965 Palm Sunday disaster right here I know many people who were affected as victims or in search and rescue. Thanks for all the updates.

JoMo, this is certainly an historic thread and thanks for all your contributions. One thing I was wondering. Did the tornado hit or miss many hotel/motel complexes along its path through the area? I don't remember reading too much about that, mainly St. John's, the schools, homes, and retail.

Birmingham mentions they had the foremost national expert in storm damage assessment to assist their team in determining the strength of the Hackleburg storm. That would have to be Tim Marshall IMHO.

I honestly never thought I would see a death toll from tornadic activity that high again in our day and age. But with so many intense tornadoes churning into densely populated areas it is perhaps almost inevitable even when warnings are timely, heard, and responded to by the general public. Community shelters for mobile home parks and public housing projects could help. I think SPC and NWS forecasters did a terrific job along with local media. I remember in late winter you thought this was going to be a very rough season for various scientific reasons, and I shudder to think we are just now entering May.