Indystorm

Mesoscale Discussion 1076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...south-central IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 360... Valid 152141Z - 152315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...If a supercell or two can develop near the Wabash Valley during the next 1-2 hours, the tornado risk would increase and seemingly maximize along a differential heating zone oriented west-east across south-central IN. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates filtered sunshine/heating is occurring over southern IN to the south of thick mid-level cloud cover located from near Sullivan, IN east through the Bloomington/Brownstown vicinity. Surface temperatures south of the boundary are in the upper 70s to lower 80s degrees F with dewpoints near 70. Given the poor mid-level lapse rates depicted on the 18z Lincoln, IL raob and forecast soundings over south-central IN, buoyancy is weak in absence of boundary layer heating and its effects on greater destabilization. KVWX VAD data show 50kt around 700mb with clockwise curvature with the hodograph. Compared to KIND and KLVX, KVWX displays a larger hodograph. Current thinking is the best corridor for tornado potential will focus along the differential heating boundary over south-central IN where the combination of stronger low-level shear and greater buoyancy may be favorable for a tornado or two during the next few hours if a supercell can develop/become sustained.

Good low and mid level helicity in the tor watch area in IN....350 to 400.

First tor warning of this episode... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 555 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 555 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PALESTINE, OR 11 MILES EAST OF ROBINSON, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... SULLIVAN AND PAXTON AROUND 605 PM EDT. DUGGER AROUND 610 PM EDT. JASONVILLE AND VICKSBURG AROUND 615 PM EDT. LINTON AROUND 620 PM EDT. SWITZ CITY AROUND 625 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

First warning for region. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 536 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHWESTERN OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT. * AT 536 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SULLIVAN, OR 20 MILES EAST OF ROBINSON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LINTON, SULLIVAN, JASONVILLE, WORTHINGTON, DUGGER, CLAY CITY, HYMERA, COAL CITY, FREEDOM, PATRICKSBURG, COALMONT, VICKSBURG AND PAXTON.

HRRR showing possibly tornadic storms in central IN later this evening with WF and then another round of storms early tomorrow morning.

Ya, just general thunderstorm outlook coverage. But dews are higher off to the east.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 434 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA... NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT. * AT 434 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PRAIRIEBURG, OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANAMOSA, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MONTICELLO AND LANGWORTHY AROUND 450 PM CDT. CENTER JUNCTION AROUND 505 PM CDT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 255 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 OHC173-051915- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190605T1915Z/ WOOD OH- 255 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN WOOD COUNTY... AT 255 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH BALTIMORE, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO IN HENRY COUNTY JUST WEST OF CUSTAR AT 239 PM EDT. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FOSTORIA, WAYNE, RISINGSUN, CYGNET, PORTAGE, JERRY CITY AND WEST MILLGROVE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT, A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Watch issued for central IN and nw OH. Watch coming for central IL and ne MO.BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 239 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT. * AT 239 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTON, OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FOSTORIA, NORTH BALTIMORE, WESTON, WAYNE, BLOOMDALE, RISINGSUN, CYGNET, PORTAGE, JERRY CITY, HOYTVILLE, CUSTAR, WEST MILLGROVE, MILTON CENTER AND BAIRDSTOWN.

Watch issued for central IN and northern OH. Watch coming for central IL and ne MO.

Was wondering if you were able to view the spectacle.

These storms will probably morph into a big ole severe MCS and swing southeastward overnight.

These are the storms which will be giving the Indy 500 authorities fits for tomorrow's race as they hope they will be past the area by noon. Lots of campers tonight on the grounds just west of the track who just might get hit by severe weather in the overnight hours. I really hate that radar hole over northeast Missouri. Virtually all the storms in that se IA/ne MO cluster are severe warned at present.

And there it is.. ..... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa West-central and northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri * Effective this Saturday night from 715 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Splitting discrete cells will pose a threat for primarily large hail this evening as they develop east from north-central Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Burlington IA to 60 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

We first got to get through tonight and Sunday. Possible watch coming now for west central IL this Saturday evening.

Garden variety t storm here just ne of Indpls. Looks like more severe storms will develop to the east of me in the watch.

Watch possibly forthcoming for central IN and OH due to incoming MCV from Illinois.

..Lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Across northeastern Missouri into the vicinity of a warm frontal zone across parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, it appears that an area of enhanced forcing (associated with a convectively generated or enhanced mid-level cyclonic vorticity center now developing northeast of the Kansas City area) may still support an upscale growing convective system later this evening into the overnight hours. This may be accompanied by another swath of strong to severe wind gusts.

such is the luck of the draw at times. I think overnight might be more interesting but probably MCS action.

WRF ARW also seems out to lunch for this evening.

And man that 0-3km helicity is 300 to 400 over much of northern IL, Chi town and nw IN should anything form or move into that area.

Maybe cycling and down again per update. IAC031-103-139-250045- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190525T0045Z/ CEDAR IA-JOHNSON IA-MUSCATINE IA- 704 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR...EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE COUNTIES... AT 703 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER IOWA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST EAST OF THE IOWA CITY AIRPORT. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WEST BRANCH AROUND 720 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SPRINGDALE, CEDAR VALLEY, IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MUSCATINE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, CEDAR BLUFF, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, HILLS ACCESS, OASIS, BUCHANAN AND ELMIRA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 243 AND 262.

As quickly as that Iowa City cell formed and became tornadic you just might be in business.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT. * AT 652 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS, OR NEAR IOWA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... IOWA CITY AROUND 705 PM CDT. WEST BRANCH AROUND 720 PM CDT. WEST LIBERTY AROUND 725 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE NEWPORT, SPRINGDALE, CEDAR VALLEY, IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MUSCATINE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, CEDAR BLUFF, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, OASIS, BUCHANAN AND ELMIRA.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 IAC103-250000- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190525T0000Z/ JOHNSON IA- 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY... AT 646 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLS, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IOWA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR AND SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... IOWA CITY, UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS AND HILLS AROUND 700 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, SHARON CENTER, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS AND HILLS ACCESS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 243