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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GOES Satellite
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What a happening in Texas in February!
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I mean, they've all but shut down this board. It's amazing to see the differences in 10 years and the energy is same!
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA on long range models is a signal that doesn't go away, it's so far southwest and strong. The models may be having feedback issues with -NAO picking up a blocking signal that's really over the Pacific. Stratosphere warming downwelled to -NAO could happen and probably will, but much later than models have right now at 168-240hrs
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Northern Hemisphere pattern to the Pole is really ripe right now. Nice flow of waves, in balance with good things I think. This means the 7-14 day period could be more organic with higher snow chances. There is nice oversight right now http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    CPCs subsurface were substantially more Nina last month, TAO/Triton this is most extreme of event now. imo TAO is better
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Are you sure about this? Many times the Atlantic pattern has not switched although it was on long term models going into March. NAO has been positive every day since Dec 1 and is most positive now. The blocking could occur, but it would be over Europe the arctic or something
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know much about the QBO. QBO, MJO, AAM sound like new age terms. It was so cool to see precip patterns change when the SOI went negative Check out the NOI or SOI*
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The warm up should really overperform. It will be fun to see where departures are at the end of the month. Northern Hemisphere isn't much different from Nov-Feb 13-14. Someone was saying DC's record 500mb max in February is 581dm.. models have 588 and AO is super negative
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's strengthening a little bit, a lot versus climatology for this time of year. In El Nino transition, it's usually a little different right now meaning this probably goes until April
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    160W is the point for the 200m warm anomalies to cross or not.. this is La Nina signature, and higher western thermocline is probably better forcing for North pacific ridge than cold east
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    That the Earth is in decline from one perspective Euro does it again 588 to DC. This time there is 594 off the SE coast so the model actually trended warmer
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Euro brings 588dm heights to DC in 6 days. It's so weird that these things are quiet, like ignoring them changes them
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maybe the -PNA is overdone. It's been not able to hold all Fall and Winter. There is a big +mid latitude burst happening and this may just be a part of it
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yup. This is an energy map
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming = March
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming to March
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You dont have frost?
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not often do you see this https://ibb.co/juVKgH
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nov-Feb 2017-2018 will finish the greatest +500mb in the Arctic Circle on record, significantly above number 2.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to get a drought here because we average like 4" per month. You would need something like 10/40 potentials to hit
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ? Check out the images on NASA. Not only have 2015-2016-2017 been substantially warm but it looks like we will go ice free in 10 years just by following basic trend lines Also of note is arctic 500mb heights this Winter through Nov 1 - Feb 5 have been greater than any year since 2013, and substantially warmer than 2015-2016-2017 Winters. I would say just by going by basic probability there is a >50% chance that this Summer is the lowest arctic ice to date
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Have hope! Models are weird right now to build a SE ridge, there will probably be more low level cold air than expected
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    subsurface in a switch to El Nino is usually different by now.. it's backbuilding west meaning the 5-month ONI classification will likely be hit
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