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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at how this El Nino has just completely collapsed.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Just like pretty much every El Nino after 97-00.. Warm Nino 4, cold 1.2. 6/7. La Nina's are colder in the east (Nino 3) too.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Sometimes it does this, becomes a purely surface-based movement. We saw this in 1982, 1972, 1997.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. 1982, the third Strongest, was two months above 0.97. 89-90 and 90-91 did and they both had -SOI or -NOI something characteristics of the phase.. 67-68 is the other example and that was a Weak Nino. Two months above 0.9 includes 02-03 which was Moderate El Nino, and 92-93 which I consider a Weak Nino (subsurface). 8/8 had something-characteristics-aspects of the phase in my opinion.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's correct. I wouldn't doubt some colder waters popping up in the eastern regions in a few months.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really classic El Nino signature in the North Pacific like we haven't seen in a while. Reminds me of the late 70s. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really weak subsurface now.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this, classic +PNA
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I wonder if we'll see another Kelvin Wave in early May.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Again, it's currently the 5-month lowest SOI since 1997:
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this nice +PNA though. We didn't see the North Pacific trough cut so far SW in the last El Nino. Pattern change.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check this out for the coming -NOI, it has the dual-opposite Pacific-Atlantic pattern of EPO-PNA/NAO. April NOI is important for Moderate El Nino's.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    IO (MJO)
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    +NOI continues on models for about 12 days. I remember researching this, and finding a very strong correlation between late March/April NOI and seasonal ENSO cycle (healthy events). (PDO link too)
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995: I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr?
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking at this latest subsurface, we might not hold the warming, and with cooler waters moving to 170W, it could eventually go Neutral/-Neutral. Long term models today popped a -PNA for the first time. I was thinking that looking at subsurface, but most of the Strong Nino's actually didn't have the subsurface lead. May 1982 was weaker than we are now. It's my hunch that the El Nino will go on Weak-Moderate-Strong, but not to 15-16 or 97-98 levels.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Return to +AAM on long range models, which you see in the late Winter of 2-year El Nino's (1952, 1987, 2015). (This is a +signal, that is like El Nino but global.)
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Now weakening.. this is a 5 day average.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is warming again.. another day lol
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is a pretty healthy -1 subsurface wave making it to 180W.. chances for La Nina go up.
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