CIK62

Next 8 days averaging 49degs. or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is +4.1[62.7]. Should be +1.4[58.8] by the 29th. The RRWT which gave no indication of this current BN period, is promising a +5 month of Nov. for us. Walls of Jericho may fall as Dec. starts, however. GFS 06Z is 990mb., 2", and 50mph gusts for us this time next week.

GALE WARNING NYC HARBOR AREA TILL 6PM TOMORROW. This is an important message from NY Alert Issued To: New York Harbor HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued October 20 at 2:55PM EDT until October 21 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect. * WINDS...NW 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City) Meanwhile, next Sunday may have a similar message, if the models can ever show back to back runs that are the same. lol. ----------

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

Next 8 days averaging 50degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is +4.3[63.0]. Should be +2.0[59.3] by the 28th.

Next 8 days averaging 51degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is +4.7[63.7]. Should be +2.4[59.8] by the 27th. The first 12 days of the month were nearly +10, the last 6 days have been about -4. 45.5 here now at 5am.

NOAA's Winter Forecast: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us The CPC output has been improving and is exactly Normal now for Sector 7, during DJF.

The RRWT that I was following failed to give any indication of a BN second half of Oct. It is calling for +5 on the next 30 and +2 on the next 90 overall. So maybe that means Nov. 16 to Jan. 15 will be near Normal in order to go from the +5 to the +2 in the time alotted.

Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 2degs. BN.  Month to date is +5.6[64.7]. Should be +3.2[60.6] by the 26th. Storm for the 28th. not looking so good this morning. EURO lost an offshore item and the GFS is weaker with system. 44.4 here at 5am 43.8 here at 6am

Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is +6.2[65.4]. Should be +3.2[60.8] by the 25th. Note: We need a 61.2 finish to make the TopTen. Really dry for next 10 days, then potential storm. Oct. usually has the fewest wet days anyway at 8 or 9, but they tend to be bigger events. April has the most at 13 or 14, usually less precipitation for each event however. 50.3 here at 6am.

Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is +6.8[66.2]. Should be +3.3[61.3] by the 24th.

No telling what costume the GFS will be wearing when this baby gets here: Maybe it comes dressed as its own self. Oh, then nothing will happen. lol

Next 8 days averaging 52degs. or 3degs. BN. Month to date is +7.1[66.6]. Should be +3.4[61.4] by the 23rd.

GFS playing Trick or Treat already?

Next 8 days averaging 54degs., or about 1deg. BN---finally. Month to date is +8.0[67.7]. Should be +4.6[62.5] by the 22nd. Under 51 here at 5am. Only 50.7 at 6am. Interesting 6hr. output (0Z GFS) for next Sunday afternoon nationwide---supposedly no precipitation falling anywhere.

Next 8 days averaging 55degs., or about NORMAL. Month to date is +9.2[69.2]. Should be +5.5[63.5] by the 21st. RWTT as warm as ever for us at +3 to +5 on the next 30 days and next 90 days. 53 here at 6am.

The next 8 days averaging 56degs., or just NORMAL. Month to date is +10.0[70.1]. Should be +5.8[64.2] by the 20th. 62 here at 6am. Leftovers of Michael passing by near 38.7N 73.3W now. Michael scooting away just outside the benchmark at 40N 71W around 8am.

Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or still 2degs. AN. Month to date is +9.5[69.8]. Should be down to +6.2[65.0] by the 19th. Been 71+ here since 5am.. But still the RWTT does not show the cooldown for the rest of Oct. CFS has it BN for the next 45 days, but claims Nov. will be AN, along with the whole winter. Wet again near the 16th, then whole country goes dry like in Prohibition. lol.

74 here, with fog lifting to reveal blue sky. Hope it holds. Michael near 27.7N. 85.8W at 1pm.

70.5 here, with FOG. Visibility <300' Michael near 29.1N 86.2W at 10am At least on satellite, the center seems to have jogged east on last few images. Probably just a wobble.

Next 8 days averaging 63degs., but still about 6degs. AN. Month to date is +8.7[69.1]. Should be +7.6[66.2] by the 18th. The RWTT still shows no cooldown. Just the second week of Nov. The next 30 and next 90 are still a good 2-4degs. AN here. 69.5 here at 6am. Meanwhile Cat4 Michael near 28.4N 86.4W, now.

Next 8 days averaging 65degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +8.2[68.8]. Should be +8.1[66.9] by the 17th.

Next 8 days averaging 65degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is +7.9[68.8]. Should be +7.4[66.8] by the 16th.

Highest temperature I heard was Allentown's 84, @3pm. over NOAA Weather Radio 162.45. As an aside, does anyone know if KWO-35 will ever find a new antenna location with a long term lease? It has been 10 months now w/o a home.

Next 8 days averaging 67degs., or still about 9degs. AN, as mean is dropping too, at about a degree every 4 days. The cooldown should keep knocking the 8-day surplus down from now on. We'll see soon if there is an 8-day BN period coming.

GFS trying to 'kid the kidder' (the CMC), by predicting two TS's on one run, that will affect us. Place your bets now.