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CIK62

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Everything posted by CIK62

  1. CIK62
    The next 30 days breakdown as of today to: 21AN 9BN and streaky. Warming of the Stratosphere might change week 3-4, I hope. Like the last 62 months: 41AN 21BN, including 20 straight AN months at one point.
  2. CIK62
    06Z GFS has no phase and thus no rage. The CMC is a pain with just plain rain. The EPS is a flop, then a hop, but it doesn't know when to stop.
  3. CIK62
    Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 2degs. AN. EPS back to 9" for next weekend. GEFS just stuck at 2"-3" for days already. Update from yesterday: EPS very consistent with the Dec. 09-10 potential.........3",10",1",0",9",0".........cough, cough, cough. At least the GEFS has been stuck at 2" or 3" every run. Without a phase----they are all in a daze. GEFS down to 1"-2".
  4. CIK62
    EPS very consistent with the Dec. 09-10 potential.........3",10",1",0".........cough, cough, cough. At least the GEFS has been stuck at 2" or 3" every run. Without a phase----they are all in a daze.
  5. CIK62
    The first 8 days of Dec. are averaging about 42degs., or about 1deg. AN.
  6. CIK62
    November ended at -3.3[44.4]. This is likely more than 1.5sd units BN.
  7. CIK62
    The EPS is predicting 10" now, up from 3" last run.
  8. CIK62
    Last day of Nov. averaging 40degs., about 3degs. BN. Month to date is -3.4[44.5]. Nov. should end at -3.3[44.4]. All 8 days are averaging 42degs , or 1deg. AN. GFS/CMC gives us little to talk about after the warm rain Sun. EPS likes Dec. 9. GEFS has a 50/50 chance of a total of 3" by mid-month.
  9. CIK62
    DTWxRisk got that timing breakdown directly from the CFS. Dec. 18 and Dec. 28 look to be the ugliest. The CFS changes every day anyhow. Yesterday I showed that Days 16-20 were a little BN. But we better get some snow on the ground from Virginia to Maine to blunt the AN air mass.
  10. CIK62
    EPS has lost any 10-day Snows. GEFS has lowered its totals for the next 15 days. If a warmup does come mid-month w/o a fresh snow cover on board, watch out.
  11. CIK62
    Last two days of Nov. averaging 42degs., or 1deg. BN. Month to date is -3.5[44.6]. Nov. should end at -3.3[44.4]. All 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 2degs. AN.
  12. CIK62
    ss Still borderline BN, even at Days 16-20.
  13. CIK62
    Last 3 days of Nov. averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. BN. Month to date is. -3.4[44.8]. Should end Nov. at -3.2[44.4]. All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 2degs. AN. Still just a 40% chance of at least 3" of Snow, by the 13th.-----GEFS.
  14. CIK62
    Just a 40% to 50% chance of at least 3" of snow by the 13th. on the ensemble, and that is for a grid point north of NYC.
  15. CIK62
    EURO WEEKLIES all AN starting mid-Dec. to Jan. 8 at least. Pray the EW's have become as bad as the CFS. JB completely mixed up, Spoke for 15mins. w/o saying anything.
  16. CIK62
    Rest of Nov. averaging 43degs., or just Normal. Month to date is -3.4[45.0]. Should end Nov. about -2.9[44.7]. All 8 days averaging 46 degs., or about 4degs. AN.
  17. CIK62
    Only a 500m difference of opinion. Don't you ever watch FOX BUSINESS or CNBC? A weatherman calls the winter heat a 'pattern reload', those stock market sharpees call it a 'correction'. Right! And the reload takes all winter and the correction goes on 3 years with a 70% loss.
  18. CIK62
    Remainder of Nov. averaging 45degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -3.8[44.8]. Should end month at -3.0[44.7]. All 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 4degs. AN. Kiss the BN goodbye for a while or more.
  19. CIK62
    Remainder of Nov. averaging 43degs., or just Normal. Month to date is -4.1[44.6]. Should end November at -3.2[44.3]. All 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 1deg. AN. 46 here 5am-6:30am. Chicago has all the fun with even a second/third storm on Dec. 06, Dec. 10.(with melting in-between) We have about a 40% chance of at least 3" bet. 12/5-12/11.
  20. CIK62
    Remainder of Nov. averaging 42degs., or 1deg. BN. All 8 days as also averaging 42degs. Month to date is -4.1[44.8]. Should end month at -3.6[44.2]. 34.8 here at 5am. EURO says NoSnow for next 10 days, and GFS has just 1" over the next 15 days. The CFS takes yet another week, before indicating any snow here, keeping it to the north of us prior to that.
  21. CIK62
    EURO WEEKLIES are only BN till Dec. 17, then AN through Jan. 06--- the end of the run. The CFS sub-weeklies keep it cold till New Years. Take your pick.
  22. CIK62
    Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 3 degs. BN. Month to date is -3.3[45.8]. November should end at about -3.2[44.3]. This must be 1.5sd units BN, based on say the last 60 years. As for a snowstorm during the next 15 days, it looks like "Cutter City", relative to the EC. 17.2 at 5am here. 18.5 at 7am. 29.1 at Noon.
  23. CIK62
    19.7 here by 10pm.
  24. CIK62
    No real chance for new snow on the ground in NYC till the Dec. 04-08 period. NAO and PNA are heading toward neutral or worse, and we may have to rely on a -WPO,/ -EPO regime to keep it BN.
  25. CIK62
    Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or 6degs. BN. Month to date is -2.3[46.9]. Should be -3.3[44.5] by the 30th. Approaching 6am it is 21.5 here. Will update. 21.0 at 6am. 20.8 at 6:30am. Looks like 20.3 near 8am is my bottom for this morning
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