CIK62

If CFS has its way, 23 of the next 30 days will be AN. JB did a written treatise today and made one 'pat of butter' cover the entire roll. Like his video salads, it is hard to know what this written 'scrambled eggs' means. Can't tell if he is introducing escapee clauses to get out of his 3-month promotion of a cold winter.

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is -2.2[37.9]. Should be +1.1[39.7] by the 23rd. EPS is No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by the 30th. Temps. for the rest of Dec. barely go below freezing----I think we will be 'skunked' snowise for the month. Only about 15% of all Decembers since 1869 have a T or 0" monthly total. I said a week ago that we would be greeting winter with a +20 day. Looks 'good' for the 21st. LoL The trend of shorter but more violent winters will win out again if the LR gets us there by Jan. 18 +/- a few days. The wildcard is the effects we will feel from any SSW's.

500MB Pattern for Christmas, as of today: As an aside, does anyone have a list of major snow events that have occurred anyway, despite bad MJO/TELECONNECTION setups?

Latest on the ENSO. Atmosphere still not coupled to the Pacific. Weak El Nino still coming. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml Temp. here just went past 50 at 11AM. 51 at 11:15AM

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is -3.0[37.3]. Should be Near Normal [38.7] by the 22nd. EPS is still No Snow for the next 10 days, and the GEFS is 40% chance of at least 4" by the 30th.

Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that. The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too. Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south. Now just imagine this was mid-winter. The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize its output. BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

I think we have every reason to believe that the 15F Low T and 6.4" of Snow in November, will hold for the rest of December----but not for the winter season. They could actually hold up and not set any records however for the season, and that is worrisome. With the state of the models and expectation of a lot of snow action eventually, a bigger goof than the November one is of high probability. Like this weekend's rain which could be a 20" mid-winter's storm on one run, then 2", and no Blizzard Warning needed, on another.

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -3.1[37.3]. Should be Near Normal [38.8] by the 21st. EPS still no Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 3" by the 29th.

Recurring Rossby Wave Train

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN. EPS still has No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS stays with a 50/50 chance of at least 3" through the 27th. Month to date is -3.3[37.4], and should be near Normal by the 20th. The RRWT looks scary cold starting soon and continuing all Jan., execpt for 'winter thaw time' near the 21st. Off the scale cold for at least some of the month of Jan., over a large area is showing up. On Your Mark, Get Set, L e t ' s F r e e z e!

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN. EPS has had an empty 10-day Snow outlook for a whole week now. The GEFS is 50/50 on at least 3" through Boxing Day. For the record, the RRWT is 6degs. BN for the next 30-day period. We can hope. Short warmup only.

Is this the 'Great White Christmas Hope' slipping by to the south on XMAS EVE? Tell Santa to put some batteries in his GPS. he is too far south lol.

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 4 or 5degs. AN. Really no Snow showing for the next 15 days. Hey!, that is already Chirstmas. November curse is in gear. Is 15degs. and 6.4" of Snow going to hold till 2019?

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 3degs. AN. Looks like the first half of Dec. will end up a little AN with this 8 day performance. The month to date is -2.4[38.8]. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by the 25th. EPS is completing 5 or 6 days of showing no snow for the next 10 days. The 5 weeks beginning next weekend look ugly warm on the CFS.

The call by WxRISK.COM. Snow up to Washington DC and that is it.

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 1deg. BN. EPS/GEFS both basically Snowless for the periods they cover.

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 1deg. BN. Just a 35% chance of at least 2" of Snow during the next 15 days----GEFS. EPS has had empty 10-day periods for 3 days now.

Hey Guess What This Is: HINT: It A'int Ours! https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winston-salem-nc/27101/daily-weather-forecast/329824?day=3 18-20 out of the next 30 days here will be AN. GEFS has us greeting winter on the 21st. at 20degs. AN. This better be as a good a forecast as the CFS for Nov. was. lol As of today (Fri), the CFS is basically AN starting the 14th., until Jan. 4----seemingly with little to break the monotony.

EURO and GFS both in the fifties with the mid-month storm temps., but EURO has 3x the Rain at 4.5". Watch how many times this changes.

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 2degs. BN. Next 2 weeks not looking very interesting at the moment. A lowly 20% chance of seeing at least 2" Snow by the 22nd. 300mb "hitman jet" 'taking system out' at Cape Hatteras, on current threat. I am sure talk of how cold air will somehow get ingested into the mid-month low will start soon. What a glorious storm it could be.

For some reason the 18Z GFS got hung up around hour 114 on PIVOTAL WEATHER, TROPICAL TIDBITS and TWISTER sites, but ran properly on the government website. Did anyone else notice this? Hate to have to rely on the crappy government graphics. It seemed little changed anyway.

Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or about 5 to 6degs. BN. EPS had its 6th straight run with no Snow within 10days. GEFS stays with 2" to 3" by the 20th. already. CMC has caved too. 30 here at 6am.

Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or about 4 or 5degs. BN. EPS, last 4 runs 0" Snow. GEFS running 0" to 3" Snow. GFS has had four runs w/o any precipitation period!---for the next 10 days. The CMC probably thinks it is dealing with a tropical system, so it is blowing it up as usual. lol. Giving the models another 48 hours to straighten up and live right on this potential Dec.9-11 event .

The MJO wave looks to go COD when it reaches the warm phases. Something else may be a more important factor by then and keep the lid on the 2MT's. But the TeleConnections all look bad too, during the second half of Dec. That leaves the stratosphere as the Lone Ranger for us.

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 4degs. BN. EPS and GEFS, both look snow free.